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Samo154
Posts: 93
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:44 am

Wondered if anyone trades this?? Noticed a few other to shows get some coverage on betfair
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

I always trade IAC, Strictly, BB & CBB, & sometimes X Factor... and do ok out of them. But the money supply is patchy.

Strictly prices usually move in line with the positions in the judges' scores leader board and you can usually get that about 90% correct by Wednesday. Purely as a viewer, Strictly has been ruined this year by the new BBC clampdown on skimpy outfits! It's supposed to be family entertainment....so how come they've cut the bit the 'dads' like ;)

In IAC this year the early moves have dried up a bit and I can't really see beyond Scarlett or maybe Larry Lamb as winners at this stage. My £2 on at a big price - Martin Roberts @ 55, +ve he fits the winner profile to a tee, -ve he isn't very well known.

How do you see it ?
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ShaunWhite
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If Trump can get in the White House ...Ched Evans for Sports Personality of the Year?
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LeTiss
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Haven't started trading it yet, but I've had great success on this show in the past.

The liquidity figures have been historically excellent, and a few red hot favourites have crashed and burned in recent years - Jimmy Bullard and Joey Essex both traded at short prices before getting evicted
Samo154
Posts: 93
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:44 am

Interesting, I've been looking at twitter mentions and how the odds move for these kind of shows. Mentions can equal popularity
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ShaunWhite
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Samo154 wrote:Interesting, I've been looking at twitter mentions and how the odds move for these kind of shows. Mentions can equal popularity
The correlation between social media presence and the likely winner is largely dependant on the demographic of the show. The younger the audience the closer the link. BB is dependable, Strictly isn't so.
andyrich666
Posts: 54
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:09 am

I used to trade Big Brother, I don't watch it no more but it was quite easy to trade but nearer evictions and so on. I always thought it was fixed in some way.
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

When i do BB and especially CBB i tend to just follow the producers current story line
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ShaunWhite
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Dallas wrote:When i do BB and especially CBB i tend to just follow the producers current story line
There's more than one way to skin a cat....as they say on Chinese Masterchef.
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Jimmy Bullard was a classic. I like laying the favourite in this as they often crack at some point. It's really a mix of public opinion, producer opinion and a bit of luck as to how somebody comes across.

The public are almost certainly going to keep going for Scarlett to start with and push her to her limits.
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Euler
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Wish Voderman would stop saying 'hardcore'
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SeaHorseRacing
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Euler wrote:Wish Voderman would stop saying 'hardcore'
I know! :lol: I wish shed leave
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Look what you've started Samo !

I think we might find this thread will run and run, I'm glad to see so many people aren't too ashamed to say they like a little trash tv. There'll be a flood of denials now with people claming they only watch it for work. :geek:

Vorderman has come up with her 'hardcore' catch phrase about 20 years too late for my mental imagery.
Samo154
Posts: 93
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:44 am

Haha interesting. Only saw a tiny bit tonight and noticed Larry lamb had drifted not to sure why? Surely he's a value bet at 7s?
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ShaunWhite
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Samo154 wrote:Haha interesting. Only saw a tiny bit tonight and noticed Larry lamb had drifted not to sure why? Surely he's a value bet at 7s?
He's drifted about 5%.... to help accomodate the 10% that Scarlett has shortened. He's a bit of a grumpy git and will struggle to get air time after his 'heroic' first day. I'd say Danny Baker was better value when he turned up at 15ish.

Scarlett is only going to lose if she quits and tonight proved again that that's unlikely. And I'm pretty sure she won't do a Biggins.

By the way am I the only one who thinks Scarlett Moffatt, Amber Rudd and Ruby Harold are all polite names for delicate medical conditions. :? :oops:
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