Value betting

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brunty122
Posts: 74
Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:26 pm

Hi,

Does anyone on here make money from value betting using the exchange as opposed to actively trading??

Thanks
brunty122
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

There is certainly a few forum members I'm aware of who only make money from betting (not trading) and they certainly wont be using bookies!
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brunty122
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Joined: Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:26 pm

Thanks Dallas

I dont really have time to be trading in the day at the minute and have started to look down this root for the time being. I would be happy with just a small income on the side. I have been paper betting since the start of this month and will continue to do so for a few months to see if my strategy is profitable and I have an edge. So far its +£415 from £10 stakes with 167 races bet on but I am fully aware its early days yet :lol: :lol: .
Dallas wrote:
Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:26 pm
and they certainly wont be using bookies!
Yes im sure haha! I have been trying to get the odds for my bets when the Over-round is as close to 100%, as if I do have an edge I will have the best chance to exploit it. Maybe something I could automate in the future?
vankancisco
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Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:54 pm

Yes, I'd probably still class myself as a traditional punter, rather than a trader. I also use bookmakers a lot as betting exchanges are unable to accommodate much of my business. Nearly all bookies have a bad name with those who want to see their activity return a profit, although it's not as always as bad as it's made out to be. I'd say there's only four or five bookies worth bothering with online, and then you do what you can in shops. For a novice gambler I'd always recommend bookmakers over Betfair, although progression will invariably lead to using Betfair as well.
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brunty122
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vankancisco wrote:
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:28 pm
Yes, I'd probably still class myself as a traditional punter, rather than a trader. I also use bookmakers a lot as betting exchanges are unable to accommodate much of my business. Nearly all bookies have a bad name with those who want to see their activity return a profit, although it's not as always as bad as it's made out to be. I'd say there's only four or five bookies worth bothering with online, and then you do what you can in shops. For a novice gambler I'd always recommend bookmakers over Betfair, although progression will invariably lead to using Betfair as well.
Just interested as to why you would recommend bookmakers? On pretty much every market the Over-round on bookies sites will be fair higher than the exchange, not to mention if you do start winning over time then you will get your account limited. Surely therefore a far better prospect to bet on the exchange. Even if you are not actively trading it.

Do you use bookmakers when the liquidity isnt there on betfair on certain markets?
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LeTiss
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vankancisco wrote:
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:28 pm
For a novice gambler I'd always recommend bookmakers over Betfair
What the hell are you talking about?
And what the heck are you doing on a betting exchange forum then?
Emmson
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Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

When Arbing I found i was winning with the bookies and losing with the exchange which is the opposite of what I expected. A very surprising discovery over a sample that was not small leading to multiple account restrictions.
Bluesky
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Emmson wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:48 am
When Arbing I found i was winning with the bookies and losing with the exchange which is the opposite of what I expected.
You were winning at the bookies because the implied probability of your bets winning there were higher than what the bookies assumed them to be. Match betting is similar, when they give various offers its very much like creating arbs.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

If your a professional bettor.

I would mostly advise bookmakers for a number of reasons. Bog!! Best odds guarenteed!!

If your paying premium charge on betfair and you are betting your crazy. Dont get me wrong a straight bettor would only be paying low commision anyway but imo that is way too much.

Additionally my betfair account is for trading only. I have increased my betting activity massively lately but i still dont use an exchange... unless i really fancy a big price.. then i use betdaq to not mix the two.

Imo if your someone who plays a system... like... back all top weighted runners at a sharp track if the such jockey is ridding its perfect and simple to use an exchange. But if you want to dedicate time to real form reading...bookmakers will be your best option most of the time....

I make money because I am getting best odds about a horse at 10/1 and time post time its usually 6/1. Its all about getting value and the exchanges are very effecient.
Betting come post time is like throwing money away on an exchange... if you can get best odds 5 mins to the off why wouldnt you use a bookmaker?
You cant get 100 quid on a horse at 9 am on betfair most of the time.

If your mainly betting the first three in the market too where the difference is very minimal its silly.

In the live show (10 mins to post) a horse at 2.12 ish will be evens with a bookmaker and you can with some get bog...

If you want to use an exchange for straight betting find something high odds and at sp... 33/1s in a booking are usually floating 50+ on an exchange. Perfect for a system were your flat betting 20 horses a day for say £10 each...
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brunty122
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:32 pm
If your paying premium charge on betfair and you are betting your crazy
Isnt a trade at the end of the day a bet? Some you win some you loose but over the long run the good traders will have the profits tilted in there favour by exploiting there edge. The same goes to someone that straight bets.
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:32 pm
Betting come post time is like throwing money away on an exchange... if you can get best odds 5 mins to the off why wouldnt you use a bookmaker?
You cant get 100 quid on a horse at 9 am on betfair most of the time.
Most of the times I have decided to do a quick comparison of the odds between the exchange and bookmaker, the exchange comes out on top. Quite often it is by a considerable amount to as I tend to look at the bigger prices rather than the favourites.

I am only betting with £10 stakes so I dont think I would have a problem with being matched (Only Paper betting atm)

I could always Automate it aswell in the morning and set it to trigger at a price I am happy with and also set a few rules.


Thanks everyone for the replies, has been helpful.
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