In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Euler wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:23 pm
I don't know why you aren't getting the message, but very few people on the forum are interested in this and the way you are presenting it.

We all have our own models that are very effective and produce the required stats without looking at matches from years ago, that's the way it is done professionally. If you want to do your way, then that's great, but I suggest you use this information in the market to produce a payoff for yourself. Or perhaps rather than posting so frequently and at such length, you just put up a recommendation on a match and leave it at that. If the results are good then people will pay attention.

It's a real turn off to see a thread getting battered to death by you talking to yourself. I sense you think by putting up even more posts, people will read it. But the reality is the opposite is happening. I think it's time to leave it there.
Judging from the last few weeks of this, Jonny doesn't seem to really listen or want to listen to anyone but Jonny. A chap tried to engage him in a constructive conversation in one thread and he was just drowned out by all of this nonsense. It's quite a shame really.
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jonnyg
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the key focus in the Portugal Segunda game >

Benfica II
2 - 1
Varzim View events More info
Heriberto Tavares 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Diogo Ramos
Heriberto Tavares 78'
2 - 1

is an understanding that the betting industry in play algorithm will not differentiate between 1-0 HT goal 11-HT Portugal Segunda and 1-0 HT goal 0-10 Portugal Segunda so you need to establish if one of the samples will produce a higher goal production or not <

In terms of the core strategy for 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes time band to the home team in Portugal Segunda <

< back against ( lay ) the correct score 1-1 and if there is a fight back goal ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 time band then it is likely that the game will have further goal(s) production so in the games that are still 1-0 on 69 minutes , simply trade out of your position on the 1-1 correct score by backing 1-1 to cancel your original exposure.

< that core strategy is very sophisticated because 1-1 FT in that profile in Segunda is going to be a rare event <
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jonnyg
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the next step to take your trading to the next level < forget automation for a moment < no point automating your trading if you do not understand how the time of the opening goal added to game state effects accuracy :idea: would be to look at a sample of

1-0 HT Portugal Segunda to the home team with the focus on the time of the opening goal in terms of the expected goal production in the 2nd half <
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:50 pm
benfica b game 1-0 ht goal 10 minutes

2nd goal benfica = 20/21

no 2nd goal = 11/4

varzim 2nd goal = 15/8

what i can advise re 46-70 is that far more likely to go 2-0 pathway then > 1-1

if does > 1-1 in 46-70 minute time band then you will see much higher expectation of > over 2.5 goals then the betting industry will assume <



at HT 1-1 is FT is offered at 7-7.6

I treat football as if it is a game of chess < in play < map out the expected pathway and look to react to the events that occur in play < :idea:

at HT over 2.5 is offered at 11/10 and the price should be around Evens < via looking at a sample of 1-0 HT goal 0-10 in segunda >

naturally if you do back over 2.5 in this game at HT and goes > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 time band then you will have a massive value bet with around 70% expectation + of further goals < via 1-0 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band data in Segunda > Portugal <
spot on > i offer very strong in play analysis at a very consistent level in a high number of leagues around the globe <
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jonnyg
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Portugal Segunda 1-0 HT to the home team with the opening goal 0-10 minutes time band
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jonnyg
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Portugal Segunda 1-0 HT with the opening goal in 11-HT time band

2-1 3-0 2-1 3-0 1-1 2-0 4-1 2-2 3-0 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 2-3 2-1 1-2 1-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-3 2-1 3-0 2-0 1-2 4-0 2-2 1-0 1-0 1-0 1-0 2-1 3-1 2-1 1-0 1-0 3-1 2-0 1-0 1-1 2-0 3-1 3-0 1-1 4-1 2-0 2-1 1-1 1-0 1-0 3-0
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:59 am, edited 42 times in total.
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jonnyg
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Portugal Segunda in all games where the home team winning 1-0 HT > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band < the 2nd half fightback metric <

2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-3 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 1-1

< a massive edge in this profile because the market will be backing the draw because the draw will be odds on as time decays if still 1-1 and everyone loves to back the draw in a league with a low goal production :idea:

you will see a very high % will end over 2.5 goals which the betting industry will not factor in because of the low goal production in general in Segunda < the in play betting industry algorithm has had zero exposure to the 2nd half fightback metric in an individual league in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game :idea:

you should be looking to drip feed your bet on over 2.5 goals as time decays in the second half at 1-1 game state :!:
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:59 am, edited 18 times in total.
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jonnyg
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Portugal Segunda in games where the home team winning 1-0 HT added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band < early home goal metric <

2-1 2-1 1-2 5-1 1-0 2-0 2-2 2-0 1-1 1-0 1-2 2-0 1-0 3-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 4-0 3-1 2-0 1-1 2-1



do not back 1-1 correct score in this profile < :idea:


consider that at HT in Portugal Segunda at 1-0 HT to the home team that over 2.5 goals will be offered at around Evens - 11/8 depending on the perceived strength of the teams which is a total irrelevance :idea: < what is relevant is the half time game state added to the time of the opening goal :idea:
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:00 am, edited 19 times in total.
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jonnyg
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there is an obvious point which I will point out if you have missed it <

In Portugal Segunda in games that are 1-0 HT to the home team > 1-1 with the 2nd goal 46-70 minutes < expectation of further goal production = as a result you will see lowered expectation of a DRAW :idea:


in terms of automating your draw backing / laying >


look to see how events in play effect expectation of a draw in a game of football :!:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:50 pm
benfica b game 1-0 ht goal 10 minutes

2nd goal benfica = 20/21

no 2nd goal = 11/4

varzim 2nd goal = 15/8

what i can advise re 46-70 is that far more likely to go 2-0 pathway then > 1-1

if does > 1-1 in 46-70 minute time band then you will see much higher expectation of > over 2.5 goals then the betting industry will assume <



at HT 1-1 is FT is offered at 7-7.6

I treat football as if it is a game of chess < in play < map out the expected pathway and look to react to the events that occur in play < :idea:

at HT over 2.5 is offered at 11/10 and the price should be around Evens < via looking at a sample of 1-0 HT goal 0-10 in segunda >

naturally if you do back over 2.5 in this game at HT and goes > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 time band then you will have a massive value bet with around 70% expectation + of further goals < via 1-0 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band data in Segunda > Portugal <
it is possible to read a game to a high level given the events that have occurred :!:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:09 am
Portugal Segunda in games where the home team winning 1-0 HT added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band < early home goal metric <

2-1 2-1 1-2 5-1 1-0 2-0 2-2 2-0 1-1 1-0 1-2 2-0 1-0 3-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 4-0 3-1 2-0 1-1 2-1



do not back 1-1 correct score in this profile < :idea:


consider that at HT in Portugal Segunda at 1-0 HT to the home team that over 2.5 goals will be offered at around Evens - 11/8 depending on the perceived strength of the teams which is a total irrelevance :idea: < what is relevant is the half time game state added to the time of the opening goal :idea:
if we look at the last 25 games in Portugal Segunda where the home team were winning 1-0 HT with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band >

18-3-4

52% OVER 2.5 GOALS = 10/11 < AT HT LAST NIGHT < WE HAD THE benfica B game offer of over 2.5 goals at 6/5 and I advised the price should be around Evens <

what you can do with a sample of early goal games is to pick off prices where you have perceived value < and to been even more sophisticated < drip feed your trades as time decays <

what is the key here is that you can see very few games have ended a draw < the market will not factor the lowered expectation OF 1-1 IN THIS PROFILE IN SEGUNDA :idea:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:08 am
Portugal Segunda in all games where the home team winning 1-0 HT > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band < the 2nd half fightback metric <

2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-3 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 1-1

< a massive edge in this profile because the market will be backing the draw because the draw will be odds on as time decays if still 1-1 and everyone loves to back the draw in a league with a low goal production :idea:

you will see a very high % will end over 2.5 goals which the betting industry will not factor in because of the low goal production in general in Segunda < the in play betting industry algorithm has had zero exposure to the 2nd half fightback metric in an individual league in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game :idea:

you should be looking to drip feed your bet on over 2.5 goals as time decays in the second half at 1-1 game state :!:
massive edge in this profile in Portugal segunda < 2 games fit that profile last night and both games produced a further goal >

last 18 in the profile and 78% produced a further goal(s) call that 3/10 :idea:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:07 am
Portugal Segunda 1-0 HT with the opening goal in 11-HT time band

2-1 3-0 2-1 3-0 1-1 2-0 4-1 2-2 3-0 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 2-3 2-1 1-2 1-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-3 2-1 3-0 2-0 1-2 4-0 2-2 1-0 1-0 1-0 1-0 2-1 3-1 2-1 1-0 1-0 3-1 2-0 1-0 1-1 2-0 3-1 3-0 1-1 4-1 2-0 2-1 1-1 1-0 1-0 3-0
last 51 games in Portugal Segunda where home team winning 1-0 HT with the opening goal in 11-HT time band

38-7-6

a whopping 59% over 2.5 goals

In Portugal Segunda 0-1 HT goal 0-20 V 21-HT and the much higher goal production will be seen in the early away goal metric sample <

I think we are seeing a higher goal production in the 1-0 HT goal 11-HT sample because of higher expectation of > 1-1 in 46-70 time band < and high expectation that will end over 2.5 goals <
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jonnyg
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summary <

ignore starting prices in terms of perceived strength to understand that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened by events that occur in a game <

in terms of automation < dont take a blanket approach and look at 1-0 HT games on a spreadsheet without factoring the time of the opening goal as you will not have a comprehensive picture >

understand how 1-0 HT 0-1 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band will effect accuracy for the rest of the game in individual leagues as time decays <
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:03 am
the key focus in the Portugal Segunda game >

Benfica II
2 - 1
Varzim View events More info
Heriberto Tavares 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Diogo Ramos
Heriberto Tavares 78'
2 - 1

is an understanding that the betting industry in play algorithm will not differentiate between 1-0 HT goal 11-HT Portugal Segunda and 1-0 HT goal 0-10 Portugal Segunda so you need to establish if one of the samples will produce a higher goal production or not <

In terms of the core strategy for 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes time band to the home team in Portugal Segunda <

< back against ( lay ) the correct score 1-1 and if there is a fight back goal ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 time band then it is likely that the game will have further goal(s) production so in the games that are still 1-0 on 69 minutes , simply trade out of your position on the 1-1 correct score by backing 1-1 to cancel your original exposure.

< that core strategy is very sophisticated because 1-1 FT in that profile in Segunda is going to be a rare event <
that strategy is genius < if I say so myself < what I would like to see is someone match my level of in play analysis on this forum
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