Today's Football

[LeTiss]

Last season in Ligue 2 in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band >


68% over 2.5 goals and 50% over 3.5 goals

That's pretty interesting, because the price on over 3.5 goals will always be much higher than Evens

So far this season though, the matches have been drab - last night of the 7 matches played, 3 ended 0-0 and another match ended 0-1 with a 90th minute goal

[Euler]

Just did this search for matches with more than £20k matched, tumbleweed was returned as the search result: -

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... ount=20000

[LeTiss]

Surprised there's been so much money for Saints to beat Swansea

[Dallas]

Looking like Liverpool still enjoy doing things the hard way

[Dallas]

This made me chuckle
http://sinceliverpoollastwonatrophy.co.uk/league-title/

[Euler]

Only 13 goals in the first two games then!

[Naffman]

Are Klopp and Wenger the same man?

Swear they don't see what everyone else sees

[Euler]

Burnley 1.06 at Chelsea at HT has to be worth a nibble?

[jonnyg]

Since 2014-2015 in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring on 45 minutes and 1-0 HT

19-2-2 > home teams won 83%

1/0.83 = 1/5

43% ended over 2.5 goals > 1/0.43 = 13/10

how does the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the game state = current score effect expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis > and how does it effect accuracy for the rest of the game >

this is an area that very few people / models are looking at > the time of the opening goal is the most crucial factor in football but the mainstream are still to discover this




Everton
1 - 0
Stoke City View events More info
W. Rooney 45'
1 - 0

[max_usted]

My notes from the first day:

West Brom, very effective and brilliant at set-plays
Chelsea - what is going on there? Selling Matic is bizarre
Man Utd - looked very strong. Either that or West Ham are hopeless.
Everton - not sure how they'll do this season after losing Lukaku
Newcastle - defensive and conservative, but quite strong - typical Rafa.

[Naffman]

Don't agree with that Newcastle comment, even with Rafa if they don't buy some decent players between now and deadline day they'll be off down. Their striker struggled to get into Palace's first team 2 seasons ago!!

[max_usted]

Don't agree with that Newcastle comment, even with Rafa if they don't buy some decent players between now and deadline day they'll be off down. Their striker struggled to get into Palace's first team 2 seasons ago!!

I was just thinking from a defensive point-of-view they looked pretty good - but didn't create any chances so maybe they'll be this season's Middlesborough

[Euler]

Didn't realise that the Everton match is being streamed on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE3d4UUtCss

[LeTiss]

Once again, I think the market is overrating Saints - they are becoming shorter and shorter to beat West Ham

Ok, West Ham were shit last week, but Saints are terrible value at 1.75, I'd never back that

[Euler]

I had a dream last night that Saints hit the post and had a clear goal ruled out for offside today. Omens are not good.