Effect of Early Goal

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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

In the table below I have added the last 30 games in Sweden Superettan where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-1 ;

80% ended over 2.5 goals and 43% ended over 3.5 goals

Game Pathway

1-1 6/30

> 2-1 16/30 <> 10-5-1 the home teams won 62.5%

> 1-2 8/30 <> 1-0-7 the away teams won 87.5%

11-11-8

43% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

As time decays in the second half in this profile in Superettan you should be looking at backing against the draw ( lay the draw ) and trade out of the draw ( back the draw ) at 2-1/1-2 to lock in a profit assuming the game does not end 1-1 full time which will be a rare event in this profile in Superettan.

Brommapojkarna
2 – 1
Syrianska
V. Gyökeres 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
10′ N. Nasseri
K. Kabran 71′
2 – 1

Helsingborg
2 – 2
Frej
B. Ralani 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
27′ P. Åsbrink
A. Timossi Andersson 86′
2 – 1
2 – 2
88′ D. Kuzmanović

GAIS
2 – 1
Värnamo
D. Rexhepi 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
16′ M. Frithzell
D. Keat 52′
2 – 1

Ängelholm
1 – 1
Ljungskile
V. Zlojutro 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
8′ A. Suleiman

Värnamo
1 – 1
Degerfors
S. Nilsson 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
37′ L. Fritzson

Frej
1 – 1
Syrianska
V. Söderström 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
21′ A. Wängberg

Örgryte
1 – 2
Sirius
W. Atashkadeh 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
31′ D. Kapcevic
1 – 2
72′ D. Kapcevic

Landskrona
1 – 3
Hammarby
A. Stadler 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ N. Besara
1 – 2
47′ P. Piñones-Arce
1 – 3
62′ N. Besara

Östersunds FK
2 – 1
Syrianska
J. Hopcutt 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
31′ Diego Brum
T. Peciar 90′
2 – 1

Hammarby
2 – 2
Värnamo
T. Christensen 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ M. Claesson
P. Piñones-Arce 57′
2 – 1
2 – 2
85′ J. Robledo

Ängelholm
1 – 1
Assyriska
J. Barny 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ A. Aganovic

Ljungskile
1 – 3
Östersunds FK
J. Olsson 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
32′ S. Ayranci
1 – 2
90′ T. Morgan
1 – 3
90′ J. Hopcutt

Brage
2 – 1
Landskrona
D. Kapcevic 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
14′ F. Karlsson
M. Moldskred 65′
2 – 1

Hammarby
3 – 1
GAIS
C. Lallet 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
35′ Daniel Mendes
K. Bakircioglu 86′
2 – 1
N. Lindqvist 90′
3 – 1

Varberg
1 – 2
Värnamo
P. Tillman 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
42′ D. Kosica (PG)
1 – 2
73′ S. Göransson

Falkenberg
2 – 1
Ljungskile
S. Rodevåg 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ P. Hopkins (PG)
T. Karlsson 55′
2 – 1

Ljungskile
1 – 1
Ängelholm
J. Runnemo 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
25′ R. Simovic

Värnamo
1 – 2
Assyriska
M. Claesson 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
28′ N. Besara (PG)
1 – 2
84′ F. Hyseni

Trelleborg
3 – 2
Assyriska
Z. Jovanovic 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
21′ Danilo
1 – 2
64′ N. Besara
A. Grahm 81′
2 – 2
B. Imenger 88′
3 – 2

Falkenberg
2 – 2
Ängelholm
A. Wede 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
28′ R. Simovic
D. Svensson 70′
2 – 1
2 – 2
89′ M. Dahlgren

Brommapojkarna
3 – 1
Öster
P. Piñones-Arce 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
45′ F. Söderberg
N. Bahoui 53′
2 – 1
T. Björkström 90′
3 – 1

Öster
2 – 1
Halmstad
F. Söderberg 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
24′ K. Steindorsson
A. Wihlborg 60′
2 – 1

Öster
2 – 1
Qviding FIF
M. Vasilj 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
35′ A. Augustsson
Alexander Henningsson 66′
2 – 1

Västerås SK
2 – 1
Brage
M. Danielsson 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
44′ J. Persson
M. Danielsson 90′
2 – 1

Brommapojkarna
1 – 3
Assyriska
S. Jagne 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
5′ J. Augustsson
1 – 2
52′ M. Mbye
1 – 3
87′ N. Besara

Jönköpings Södra
2 – 3
Värnamo
C. Björk 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
21′ V. Claesson
1 – 2
47′ M. Claesson
B. Hrgota 75′
2 – 2
2 – 3
80′ D. Wellington

Qviding FIF
1 – 1
Öster
P. Nilsson 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
17′ F. Söderberg

Qviding FIF
2 – 2
Hammarby
I. Bagcı 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
19′ S. Castro-Tello
K. Galijatovic 55′
2 – 1
2 – 2
83′ A. Dahl

Västerås SK
2 – 2
Värnamo
M. Mete 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
26′ V. Claesson
S. Lundevall 49′
2 – 1
2 – 2
51′ J. Ring

Landskrona
2 – 3
Assyriska
B. Ralani 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
33′ Elvis
F. Svanbäck 55′
2 – 1
2 – 2
71′ N. Besara
2 – 3
76′ K. Konwea
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Niko
Posts: 282
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:36 am

Cheers Cassini, really appreciate your posts, keep them coming. Scandinavian football for the summer months is interesting for me
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Last season in League 2 where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals

Both team scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 72%

The home teams won 63%, 14% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 23%

44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY ( 2015-2016)

3/57 1-0 FT

> 1-1 20/57 <> 3-6-11 <> home teams won 15%

> 2-0 34/57 <> 30-2-2 <> home teams won 88%

This season in League 2 in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band , 79% ended over 2.5 goals and 53% ended over 3.5 goals

both teams scored in 72% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in the first half in 60%

44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

2/57 1-0 FT

> 1-1 23/57 6-7-10 home teams won 26%

> 2-0 32/57 31-1-0 home teams won 97%

39-8-10 < 14% ended a DRAW

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal “

In league 2 in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes it is the home team that will be more likely to score the 2nd goal < this is why in this profile in league 2 there will be lowered expectation of a draw which means you should be looking to back against the draw ( lay the draw ) in league 2 as time decays in games that produce an early home goal metric.

Crewe Alexandra
4 – 1
Barnet
C. Dagnall 8′
1 – 0
C. Dagnall 25′
2 – 0
2 – 1
64′ C. Weston
C. Dagnall 67′
3 – 1
G. Cooper 76′
4 – 1

Exeter City
2 – 3
Carlisle United
R. Reid 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
30′ D. Grainger (PG)
J. Moore-Taylor 45′
2 – 1
2 – 2
72′ D. Grainger (PG)
2 – 3
75′ J. Proctor

Grimsby Town
1 – 1
Plymouth Argyle
S. Pearson 1′
1 – 0
1 – 1
61′ J. Spencer

Grimsby Town
4 – 2
Yeovil Town
S. Jones (PG) 6′
1 – 0
C. Clements 36′
2 – 0
2 – 1
47′ A. Lawless
S. Vernon 59′
3 – 1
J. Osborne 62′
4 – 1
4 – 2
75′ F. Zoko

Wycombe Wanderers
2 – 1
Doncaster Rovers
L. O’Nien 9′
1 – 0
1 – 1
18′ A. May
L. O’Nien 32′
2 – 1

Exeter City
2 – 1
Barnet
J. Moore-Taylor 4′
1 – 0
D. Wheeler 6′
2 – 0
2 – 1
69′ J. Akinde

Notts County
3 – 1
Colchester United
H. Hollis 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
21′ C. Porter
Shola Ameobi 34′
2 – 1
Shola Ameobi 73′
3 – 1

Colchester United
2 – 1
Luton Town
C. Porter 4′
1 – 0
C. Porter 31′
2 – 0
2 – 1
90′ I. Vassell

Stevenage
3 – 0
Notts County
M. Godden 3′
1 – 0
J. King 60′
2 – 0
M. Godden 62′
3 – 0

Luton Town
1 – 1
Plymouth Argyle
D. Hylton 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
25′ C. Tanner

Morecambe
1 – 0
Grimsby Town
L. Molyneux 2′
1 – 0

Blackpool
2 – 2
Crewe Alexandra
N. Delfouneso 8′
1 – 0
T. Aldred 27′
2 – 0
2 – 1
62′ C. Dagnall
2 – 2
88′ O. Turton

Wycombe Wanderers
1 – 2
Carlisle United
A. Akinfenwa 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
9′ J. Proctor
1 – 2
34′ R. Lambe

Luton Town
3 – 0
Hartlepool United
D. Hylton 5′
1 – 0
L. Gambin 13′
2 – 0
O. Palmer 81′
3 – 0

Plymouth Argyle
2 – 3
Leyton Orient
A. Sarcevic 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
43′ G. Massey
M. Kennedy 54′
2 – 1
2 – 2
88′ G. Massey
2 – 3
90′ Sandro Semedo

Crewe Alexandra
5 – 0
Grimsby Town
G. Cooper 2′
1 – 0
C. Dagnall 16′
2 – 0
G. Cooper 25′
3 – 0
C. Dagnall 29′
4 – 0
C. Cooke 87′
5 – 0

Portsmouth
2 – 0
Accrington Stanley
M. Clarke 2′
1 – 0
K. Naismith 90′
2 – 0

Exeter City
4 – 0
Crewe Alexandra
J. Moore-Taylor 8′
1 – 0
D. Wheeler 58′
2 – 0
D. Wheeler 68′
3 – 0
L. James 85′
4 – 0

Stevenage
2 – 0
Grimsby Town
S. Schumacher 4′
1 – 0
J. McAnuff 61′
2 – 0

Cambridge United
1 – 3
Mansfield Town
G. Maris 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
43′ L. Legge (OG)
1 – 2
58′ K. Pearce
1 – 3
73′ S. Coulthirst

Mansfield Town
3 – 0
Crewe Alexandra
Y. Arquin 5′
1 – 0
B. Whiteman 48′
2 – 0
R. Bennett 83′
3 – 0

Morecambe
4 – 1
Notts County
L. Molyneux 2′
1 – 0
P. Mullin 27′
2 – 0
M. Rose (PG) 31′
3 – 0
3 – 1
80′ J. Forte
K. Ellison 90′
4 – 1

Stevenage
3 – 1
Newport County
M. Godden 9′
1 – 0
M. Godden 42′
2 – 0
M. Godden (PG) 62′
3 – 0
3 – 1
89′ D. Butler

Doncaster Rovers
3 – 1
Portsmouth
J. Marquis 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
41′ K. Naismith
T. Rowe 58′
2 – 1
J. Marquis 71′
3 – 1

Colchester United
2 – 0
Cheltenham Town
T. Eastman 10′
1 – 0
B. Dickenson 84′
2 – 0

Exeter City
4 – 0
Leyton Orient
D. Wheeler 4′
1 – 0
R. Harley 50′
2 – 0
R. Harley (PG) 65′
3 – 0
L. McAlinden 82′
4 – 0

Hartlepool United
3 – 2
Morecambe
P. Amond 10′
1 – 0
B. Paynter (PG) 14′
2 – 0
N. Featherstone 24′
3 – 0
3 – 1
52′ A. Fleming
3 – 2
90′ P. Mullin

Leyton Orient
3 – 2
Crawley Town
S. Dalby 4′
1 – 0
P. McCallum 11′
2 – 0
P. McCallum (PG) 45′
3 – 0
3 – 1
54′ T. Mézague (OG)
3 – 2
78′ E. Boldewijn

Carlisle United
2 – 1
Yeovil Town
S. Brisley 10′
1 – 0
C. Wyke 36′
2 – 0
2 – 1
48′ N. Smith

Crawley Town
3 – 1
Newport County
J. Collins 3′
1 – 0
1 – 1
33′ J. Labadie
J. Yorwerth 48′
2 – 1
J. Smith 52′
3 – 1

Morecambe
1 – 2
Cheltenham Town
P. Murphy 6′
1 – 0
1 – 1
70′ B. Waters
1 – 2
71′ H. Pell

Doncaster Rovers
1 – 0
Grimsby Town
L. Mandeville 3′
1 – 0

Blackpool
4 – 1
Newport County
B. Potts 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
21′ R. Healey
J. Payne 61′
2 – 1
K. Vassell 72′
3 – 1
K. Mellor 83′
4 – 1

Cambridge United
3 – 1
Cheltenham Town
U. Ikpeazu 7′
1 – 0
L. Berry 56′
2 – 0
L. Berry 74′
3 – 0
3 – 1
85′ B. Waters

Luton Town
1 – 3
Portsmouth
D. Hylton 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
11′ M. Smith
1 – 2
45′ G. Evans
1 – 3
85′ K. Naismith

Crawley Town
1 – 3
Cambridge United
J. Collins 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
19′ G. Taylor
1 – 2
28′ U. Ikpeazu
1 – 3
51′ L. Berry

Newport County
2 – 0
Carlisle United
J. Sheehan 2′
1 – 0
R. Healey 72′
2 – 0

Carlisle United
3 – 1
Crawley Town
J. Ibehre 5′
1 – 0
J. Kennedy 28′
2 – 0
L. Joyce 45′
3 – 0
3 – 1
90′ M. Connolly

Colchester United
2 – 2
Morecambe
C. Porter 4′
1 – 0
1 – 1
27′ T. Barkhuizen
C. Porter (PG) 39′
2 – 1
2 – 2
77′ L. Molyneux

Cheltenham Town
2 – 1
Crawley Town
B. Waters 3′
1 – 0
J. Munns 62′
2 – 0
2 – 1
78′ Kaby

Barnet
2 – 2
Morecambe
J. Akinde 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
9′ T. Barkhuizen
J. Akinde 31′
2 – 1
2 – 2
81′ C. Stockton

Colchester United
1 – 2
Accrington Stanley
Drey Wright 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
59′ R. Boco
1 – 2
68′ B. Kee

Newport County
1 – 2
Cambridge United
R. Healey 10′
1 – 0
1 – 1
61′ U. Ikpeazu
1 – 2
83′ L. Berry

Yeovil Town
4 – 2
Cheltenham Town
O. Khan 6′
1 – 0
D. Ward 16′
2 – 0
2 – 1
41′ A. Downes
M. Dolan 45′
3 – 1
3 – 2
57′ B. Waters
T. Eaves 90′
4 – 2

Plymouth Argyle
2 – 1
Cambridge United
G. Carey 9′
1 – 0
J. Slew 59′
2 – 0
2 – 1
79′ M. Elito

Luton Town
4 – 1
Wycombe Wanderers
D. Hylton 10′
1 – 0
D. Hylton 56′
2 – 0
2 – 1
63′ M. Bloomfield
D. Hylton (PG) 88′
3 – 1
J. Cook 90′
4 – 1

Portsmouth
3 – 0
Crawley Town
C. Main 9′
1 – 0
G. Roberts 12′
2 – 0
C. Main 37′
3 – 0

Doncaster Rovers
4 – 1
Yeovil Town
A. Williams 1′
1 – 0
J. Coppinger 54′
2 – 0
2 – 1
55′ R. Hedges
A. Williams 82′
3 – 1
A. Williams 90′
4 – 1

Hartlepool United
2 – 2
Newport County
N. Featherstone 2′
1 – 0
1 – 1
4′ S. Rigg
1 – 2
27′ J. Parkin
P. Amond 38′
2 – 2

Cambridge United
2 – 2
Carlisle United
L. Legge 7′
1 – 0
1 – 1
23′ J. Kennedy
L. Berry (PG) 41′
2 – 1
2 – 2
59′ C. Wyke

Hartlepool United
1 – 2
Notts County
A. Nsiala 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
65′ L. Laing
1 – 2
76′ J. Stead

Colchester United
3 – 2
Grimsby Town
B. Dickenson 10′
1 – 0
K. Guthrie 34′
2 – 0
B. Dickenson 39′
3 – 0
3 – 1
48′ C. Disley
3 – 2
90′ O. Bogle

Morecambe
2 – 0
Portsmouth
R. Edwards 10′
1 – 0
T. Barkhuizen 21′
2 – 0

Wycombe Wanderers
1 – 1
Accrington Stanley
A. Akinfenwa 5′
1 – 0
1 – 1
48′ S. McConville

Colchester United
2 – 0
Cambridge United
B. Dickenson 8′
1 – 0
D. Johnstone 82′
2 – 0

Accrington Stanley
3 – 2
Doncaster Rovers
R. Boco 8′
1 – 0
1 – 1
12′ T. Rowe
M. Pearson 29′
2 – 1
2 – 2
82′ A. Williams
S. McConville 90′
3 – 2

Grimsby Town
2 – 0
Morecambe
K. Jackson 6′
1 – 0
B. Davies 63′
2 – 0
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

If you have read the book the numbers game < the main theme is that football is 50% random :)

I looked at football to discover that football is played by human beings who react in almost identical ways in certain situations > which you can apply to the effect of the time of the opening goal via a metric known as GAME PATHWAY analysis > :idea:
spoonster912
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:09 am
Location: Kent

Thanks for info Cassini!

As a newbie to BetAngel and to trading in general, but to someone who plans to trade football going forward, and whom eats/drinks/breathes the game.. this is really useful.

I'm currently testing out a number of strategies, and this is similar in principle to one of them.

I just wish the season was starting now, instead of coming to the end, just as i'm getting up to speed with everything! lol.

Thanks again.
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Last 50 games in Sweden Allsvenskan where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 half time ;

GAME PATHWAY

9/50 0-1 FT

23/50 > 1-1 5-15-3 < draw bias :idea:

18/50 > 0-2 0-1-17

5-16-29 < 32% ended a draw

Both teams scored in 58% and 48% :idea: ended over 2.5 goals

Djurgården
0 – 1
AIK
0 – 1
20′ S. Thern

Elfsborg
2 – 1
AFC Eskilstuna
0 – 1
11′ F. Ali (PG)
J. Nilsson 58′
1 – 1
L. Nilsson 89′
2 – 1

Halmstad
0 – 1
AIK
0 – 1
5′ J. Blomberg

Hammarby
1 – 1
Kalmar
0 – 1
14′ P. Diouf
B. Paulsen 90′
1 – 1

Jönköpings Södra
1 – 1
Örebro
0 – 1
8′ V. Sköld
S. Aasmundsen 81′
1 – 1

Örebro
2 – 1
Kalmar
0 – 1
19′ T. Eriksson
N. Gerzić 47′
1 – 1
V. Sköld 79′
2 – 1

Hammarby
2 – 3
Häcken
0 – 1
20′ Alhassan Kamara
E. Israelsson 64′
1 – 1
M. Solheim 75′
2 – 1
2 – 2
80′ M. Abubakari
2 – 3
86′ A. Farnerud

Djurgården
0 – 3
AIK
0 – 1
15′ A. Isak
0 – 2
65′ A. Isak
0 – 3
76′ C. Obasi

Häcken
2 – 2
IFK Göteborg
0 – 1
15′ E. Salomonsson (PG)
0 – 2
60′ E. Ómarsson
J. Owoeri 65′
1 – 2
Alhassan Kamara 69′
2 – 2

Helsingborg
1 – 2
Norrköping
0 – 1
14′ S. Andersson
0 – 2
49′ N. Eliasson
A. Wede (PG) 60′
1 – 2

Kalmar
2 – 1
Djurgården
0 – 1
4′ K. Walker
O. Colley (OG) 69′
1 – 1
Romarinho 74′
2 – 1

Jönköpings Södra
1 – 1
GIF Sundsvall
0 – 1
6′ S. Silva
P. Cibicki 66′
1 – 1

Gefle
0 – 4
Örebro
0 – 1
6′ K. Holmberg
0 – 2
47′ H. Valgarðsson
0 – 3
63′ A. Ajdarević
0 – 4
83′ M. Sema

Djurgården
0 – 3
Kalmar
0 – 1
15′ M. Antonsson
0 – 2
51′ J. Ring
0 – 3
90′ M. Antonsson

Helsingborg
1 – 1
Östersunds FK
0 – 1
20′ A. Stadler
A. Wede 81′
1 – 1

Jönköpings Södra
0 – 2
Norrköping
0 – 1
15′ C. Nyman
0 – 2
63′ E. Kujović

Häcken
0 – 1
GIF Sundsvall
0 – 1
18′ L. Gerson (PG)

IFK Göteborg
1 – 1
Kalmar
0 – 1
7′ T. Eriksson
E. Salomonsson (PG) 53′
1 – 1

Gefle
1 – 1
Helsingborg
0 – 1
9′ Jordan Larsson
S. Skrabb 79′
1 – 1

Kalmar
0 – 1
Jönköpings Södra
0 – 1
15′ P. Cibicki

Djurgården
2 – 2
Hammarby
0 – 1
5′ F. Torsteinbø
J. Arvidsson (PG) 58′
1 – 1
1 – 2
69′ E. Israelsson
N. Mushekwi 78′
2 – 2

Halmstad
2 – 2
Örebro
0 – 1
14′ M. Broberg
M. Rusike 49′
1 – 1
1 – 2
58′ P. Ericsson
A. Rojas 60′
2 – 2

Halmstad
0 – 1
Gefle
0 – 1
3′ A. Bååth

Häcken
0 – 2
Falkenberg
0 – 1
5′ S. Rodevåg
0 – 2
61′ H. Araba

GIF Sundsvall
0 – 1
Norrköping
0 – 1
15′ E. Kujović

Kalmar
2 – 1
Malmö FF
0 – 1
11′ J. Berget
D. Elm 78′
1 – 1
M. Antonsson 81′
2 – 1

Halmstad
1 – 2
IFK Göteborg
0 – 1
16′ J. Ankersen
J. Keene 79′
1 – 1
1 – 2
90′ J. Ankersen

Kalmar
0 – 2
IFK Göteborg
0 – 1
2′ M. Bjärsmyr
0 – 2
56′ L. Vibe

Djurgården
1 – 1
Norrköping
0 – 1
5′ Al-Hadji Kamara
M. Broberg 61′
1 – 1

Djurgården
0 – 3
Örebro
0 – 1
19′ Alhassan Kamara
0 – 2
55′ M. Pode
0 – 3
86′ K. Holmberg

Kalmar
1 – 3
Halmstad
0 – 1
20′ M. Boman
0 – 2
69′ M. Antonsson
0 – 3
78′ M. Antonsson
P. Ericsson 90′
1 – 3

Djurgården
1 – 2
Gefle
0 – 1
7′ E. Bellander
S. Tibbling 80′
1 – 1
1 – 2
84′ S. Lundevall (PG)

Halmstad
0 – 1
Malmö FF
0 – 1
16′ P. Cibicki

Kalmar
0 – 4
Djurgården
0 – 1
19′ J. Arvidsson
0 – 2
74′ A. Johansson
0 – 3
76′ S. Andersson
0 – 4
87′ P. Hellquist

AIK
0 – 1
Halmstad
0 – 1
9′ J. Blomberg

Falkenberg
1 – 3
Örebro
0 – 1
18′ Alhassan Kamara
0 – 2
60′ P. Haginge
G. Donyoh 84′
1 – 2
1 – 3
86′ D. Nordmark

Häcken
1 – 1
Mjällby
0 – 1
8′ J. Enarsson
R. Makondele 60′
1 – 1

Brommapojkarna
0 – 4
Djurgården
0 – 1
10′ S. Andersson
0 – 2
56′ A. Jawo
0 – 3
60′ S. Andersson
0 – 4
78′ S. Andersson

Häcken
1 – 1
Helsingborg
0 – 1
17′ M. Dahlberg
Simon Gustafson 63′
1 – 1

Malmö FF
3 – 1
Kalmar
0 – 1
12′ S. Andersson
E. Forsberg 47′
1 – 1
S. Ramhorn (OG) 53′
2 – 1
M. Rosenberg 63′
3 – 1

Örebro
1 – 1
Helsingborg
0 – 1
14′ D. Accam
M. Pode 58′
1 – 1

Åtvidaberg
0 – 3
AIK
0 – 1
14′ M. Lorentzson
0 – 2
63′ N. Bahoui
0 – 3
90′ Henok Goitom

Häcken
1 – 1
IFK Göteborg
0 – 1
16′ L. Zhuta (OG)
Simon Gustafson 47′
1 – 1

Falkenberg
1 – 1
Häcken
0 – 1
3′ R. Makondele
A. Wede 67′
1 – 1

Helsingborg
0 – 1
Malmö FF
0 – 1
18′ G. Molins (PG)

Falkenberg
1 – 3
Kalmar
0 – 1
8′ D. Elm
0 – 2
72′ D. Elm
J. Vall 76′
1 – 2
1 – 3
90′ P. Diouf

Brommapojkarna
1 – 1
IFK Göteborg
0 – 1
13′ R. Söder
P. Segerström 78′
1 – 1

AIK
0 – 2
IFK Göteborg
0 – 1
14′ L. Vibe
0 – 2
86′ M. Mane

Brommapojkarna
1 – 2
Kalmar
0 – 1
19′ M. Söderqvist
0 – 2
54′ M. Söderqvist
G. Petrović 55′
1 – 2

Halmstad
1 – 4
Djurgården
0 – 1
6′ E. Fejzullahu
0 – 2
52′ E. Fejzullahu
0 – 3
69′ A. Prijović
S. Silverholt 78′
1 – 3
1 – 4
85′ A. Jawo
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Last 40 games in Finland Veikkausliiga with the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT

4-8-28 < away teams won 70%

GAME PATHWAY

12/40 0-1 FT > you do not want to be chasing goals in the 2nd half in this profile in Veik.

18/40 > 1-1 4-8-6 < away teams won 33%

10/40 > 0-2 0-0-10 < away teams won 100%

35% ended over 2.5 goals

1/0.35 = 15/8

The away teams won the 2nd half in only 25% < you should be looking to back the home team on the asian handicap at HT < betting on the outcome of the 2nd half only with lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half > because as you can see > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2 = GAME PATHWAY ANALYSIS :idea:
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Shimizu S-Pulse
06 : 00
Yokohama F. Ma…
0 - 1
15' K. Matsubara
R. Shirasaki 50'
1 - 1
1 - 2
52' Hugo Vieira
1 - 3
90' Hugo Vieira


Vissel Kobe
1 - 1
Tokyo
0 - 1
14' K. Nagai
K. Watanabe 63'
1 - 1

Kawasaki Frontale
2 - 2
Shimizu S-Pulse
0 - 1
14' S. Kaneko
H. Abe 62'
1 - 1
K. Nakamura 73'
2 - 1
2 - 2
90' Tiago Alves


Tokyo
3 - 3
Sagan Tosu
0 - 1
4' Y. Toyoda (PG)
P. Utaka 70'
1 - 1
K. Hashimoto 76'
2 - 1
P. Utaka 86'
3 - 1
3 - 2
87' D. Kamada
3 - 3
90' Dong-Geon Cho


Kashiwa Reysol
1 - 3
Gamba Osaka
0 - 1
7' S. Nagasawa
Y. Kobayashi 47'
1 - 1
1 - 2
61' S. Nagasawa
1 - 3
72' Ademilson

Omiya Ardija
1 - 1
Sagan Tosu
0 - 1
7' T. Tomiyama (PG)
A. Ienaga 58'
1 - 1

Nagoya Grampus
1 - 3
Ventforet Kofu
0 - 1
11' S. Inagaki
R. Sakai 62'
1 - 1
1 - 2
75' Dudu
1 - 3
77' Y. Tanaka

Sagan Tosu
3 - 2
Tokyo
0 - 1
10' Muriqui
T. Tomiyama 58'
1 - 1
1 - 2
63' H. Kawano
K. Ikeda 90'
2 - 2
Y. Toyoda 90'
3 - 2

Vegalta Sendai
2 - 1
Ventforet Kofu
0 - 1
4' Cristiano
Ramon Lopes 59'
1 - 1
T. Nozawa 78'
2 - 1

Yokohama F. Ma…
1 - 2
Sanfrecce Hiro…
0 - 1
15' P. Utaka
S. Nakamura (PG) 69'
1 - 1
1 - 2
72' P. Utaka


Kashiwa Reysol
2 - 2
Júbilo Iwata
0 - 1
14' J. Bothroyd
H. Akino 55'
1 - 1
J. Tanaka 78'
2 - 1
2 - 2
90' N. Sakurauchi

Montedio Yamagata
1 - 3
Sagan Tosu
0 - 1
12' D. Kamada
Alceu Rodrigues 57'
1 - 1
1 - 2
65' K. Mizunuma
1 - 3
83' Sung-Dong Baek

Vegalta Sendai
3 - 1
Matsumoto Yamaga
0 - 1
9' Y. Iwakami
H. Kanazono 58'
1 - 1
H. Kanazono 86'
2 - 1
Ramon Lopes 89'
3 - 1

Shimizu S-Pulse
1 - 2
Shonan Bellmare
0 - 1
8' T. Inukai (OG)
G. Omae 61'
1 - 1
1 - 2
78' T. Shimamura

Kawasaki Frontale
2 - 1
Shonan Bellmare
0 - 1
4' K. Takayama
Y. Ōkubo (PG) 61'
1 - 1
Elsinho 90'
2 - 1

Vegalta Sendai
2 - 1
Shimizu S-Pulse
0 - 1
12' R. Shirasaki
Wilson 62'
1 - 1
H. Watanabe 90'
2 - 1

Kashima Antlers
3 - 1
Sagan Tosu
0 - 1
6' H. Taniguchi
M. Kanazaki 64'
1 - 1
G. Shibasaki (PG) 76'
2 - 1
Y. Endo 78'
3 - 1

Nagoya Grampus
1 - 2
Cerezo Osaka
0 - 1
5' Y. Kakitani
M. Tanaka (PG) 58'
1 - 1
1 - 2
78' D. Forlán

Urawa Reds
1 - 3
Kawasaki Frontale
0 - 1
12' Jeci
T. Makino 57'
1 - 1
1 - 2
59' T. Makino (OG)
1 - 3
90' Y. Ōkubo

Yokohama F. Ma…
1 - 2
Nagoya Grampus
0 - 1
9' J. Kennedy (PG)
S. Hyodo 51'
1 - 1
1 - 2
53' J. Fujimoto

Sanfrecce Hiro…
1 - 2
Tokyo
0 - 1
16' K. Watanabe
H. Satō 62'
1 - 1
1 - 2
81' T. Yonemoto

Kashima Antlers
2 - 1
Yokohama F. Ma…
0 - 1
19' Marquinhos
Y. Ōsako 68'
1 - 1
Y. Ōsako 79'
2 - 1

Shonan Bellmare
1 - 2
Yokohama F. Ma…
0 - 1
10' Marquinhos
R. Kajikawa 57'
1 - 1
1 - 2
65' Marquinhos (PG)

Omiya Ardija
2 - 1
Nagoya Grampus
0 - 1
7' N. Nakamura
M. Novakovič 62'
1 - 1
Y. Hasegawa 65'
2 - 1

Vegalta Sendai
1 - 1
Sagan Tosu
0 - 1
15' N. Fujita
S. Akamine 53'
1 - 1
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

if you look above the opening goal by the away team in J league in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT game state added to the home fightback > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and lowered expectation of a DRAW because 1-1 FT will be a rare event >

at 1-1 in this profile in J league < lay the draw ( back against the draw ) > at 2-1/1-2 < trade out :idea:


rather more sophisticated then laying the draw before a game starts :lol:
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Heads up to Cassini.

You are an absolute anorak with these footy stats, but I love them
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Sat May 27, 2017 9:13 am
Heads up to Cassini.

You are an absolute anorak with these footy stats, but I love them
more of a parka chap < although 50 + I try to keep looking young < hence the fresh in play analysis :mrgreen:
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

stat of the day > last 26 games in J league 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes added to the home fightback in the 46-70 minutes < 1-1 and only 3/26 ended 1-1 < in a high % of the games the draw at 1-1 will be offered at odds on :o
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

quote:
Originally posted by Nape:
key point > given the events in Guizhou game > we should see lowered expectation of 1-1 FT > 1-1 FT in this profile is rare

I am Nape on another forum :mrgreen:
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

last 26 games in China SL league > 0-1 HT goal 0-20 > 1-1 with 2nd goal 46-70 minutes = 4/26 ended 1-1


football is not 50% random > :idea:
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

spoonster912 wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 6:22 pm
Thanks for info Cassini!

As a newbie to BetAngel and to trading in general, but to someone who plans to trade football going forward, and whom eats/drinks/breathes the game.. this is really useful.

I'm currently testing out a number of strategies, and this is similar in principle to one of them.

I just wish the season was starting now, instead of coming to the end, just as i'm getting up to speed with everything! lol.

Thanks again.
at my age I am lucky to be breathing :lol:
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