Effect of Early Goal

[jonnyg]

In the table below I have added the last 20 games in the Premier League where Chelsea opened the scoring away in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 half time , 65% ended over 2.5 goals , 1/0.65 = 4/7

The last 20 away games played by Chelsea when they opened the scoring in the 21 minutes to half time band and were winning 1-0 at half time , 35% ended over 2.5 goals , 1/0.35 = 15/8


data correct to Jan 14th 2017

we can see in general 0-1 HT goal 0-20 and 0-1 HT goal 21-HT < are not in the same ball park > as a result data in terms of sample size can be a monster red herring <

[jonnyg]

they say everyone likes an underdog < just not in football data and analytics

[jonnyg]

if you have read the book the numbers game > an epic flaw in one of the themes >

You will often hear commentators claim that teams are more vulnerable to conceding a goal just after they have scored themselves. True or false?

Peter Ayton and Anna Braennberg tested the validity of this belief. They did so by considering matches across two seasons in the English Premier League that ended in 1-1 draws (this, they reasoned, shows that ‘each team was capable of scoring against the other’). There were 127 such instances during the 1994-95 and 1995-96 campaigns. I came across their study while reading Myths and Facts about Football: The Economics and Psychology of the World’s Greatest Sport (2008).

So, is the team that trails to the game’s opening goal more likely to score just after they have conceded themselves than at any other time during the match?

For each game, the time left after the first goal was divided into four quarters. Say, for instance, the opening goal was scored after 50 minutes. The remaining 40 minutes is divided into four 10-minute quarters. If teams are more likely to concede immediately after scoring, then, naturally, you would expect more equalising goals in the first quarter than the fourth. Is this the case?

Mr Ayton et al did not recognise that it is an early goal in general that is more likely to result in a quick response and a very low % of early goal games will end 1-1

in effect the sample of 127 would have included very few early goal games >

[jonnyg]

the monster flaw in the book was that football is 50% random based on Birmingham beating Chelsea 1-0 when Chelsea dominated the game < a game I watched on video many times >

here is my response > in 2013

The Numbers Game written by Chris Anderson and David Sally is a very interesting book which I am currently reading and on page 39 the book discusses ‘riding your luck” .

Anderson and Sally use the example of Birmingham v Chelsea which was played in the 2010/2011 season to advise that teams can dominate games and lose .

I have just watched the first half of the game and keyed the shot strength the same way as it is done in football trading houses.

A delivery is basically a cross into the box, a near miss is a attempt at goal which you consider that there should be a goal and Chelsea had two in the first half and in the first one, Drogba only had Foster to beat from close range but shot straight at Foster and in the second one, Drogba headed the ball from close range onto the inside of the post with Foster beaten and the rebound was fired wide.

A chance is when there is less expectation then a near a miss of the shot ending in a goal and a half chance is one step down from a chance in terms of expectation of a goal and you can use shot strength to have expectation of the score in the game and I award 0.01 for a delivery, 0.05 for a half chance, 0.1 for a chance and 0.3 for a near miss so we can see that in the first half although the game was 1-0, in terms of the shot strength data it was Birmingham 0.13 v Chelsea 1.59 so we can see that Chelsea did dominate the first half.

In terms of expectation of the outcome of the second half we should not assume that because Chelsea dominated the first half that there will be expectation of Chelsea winning the second half because it is half time game state that will give the expectation of the accuracy of both the teams in the second half.

The question is was Birmingham beating Chelsea a random event and my argument is that although Chelsea did dominate the first half we need to look at the variables in the game to define if the game can be considered random.

Chelsea did not have Terry at the heart of the defence and the goal was a result of the centre backs both going for the same ball which allowed Bowyer to score unmarked from close range.

Essien and Lampard were also missing and Anelka was playing fairly deep and Drogba was basically the big threat in terms of Birmingham conceding and Foster countered the threat of Drogba by having an outstanding game in goal.

Chelsea had lost their previous league game at home to Sundeland and went onto win just one of their next seven league games after losing to Birmingham although it was their first back to back defeat since the 2005-2006 season.

If we look at 1-0 half time game state around the world then there is expectation that both teams will have similar accuracy in the second half but that the home teams shot on target production will be on average higher then the away teams in the second half.

In the 2010-2011 season there were 83 games that were at 1-0 half time game state and Stoke were the only away team to win and there were 16/83 19% games that were drawn.

At half time there was little expectation of Chelsea winning given the historical 1-0 half time game state and they may have had more possession in the second half but their shot on target production in the second half was only two.

Birmingham in the 2010-2011 season lost only 5 league home games and only conceded 22 goals at home and won all 4 of the games when they were winning 1-0 at half time at home and in the second half of the games their shot on target production was 6 in the second half of the 4 games and they scored with 50% of their shots on target and conceded 12 shots on target in the second half of the 4 games and conceded only one goal.

In the 2010-2011 season Chelsea did not win any games away when they failed to score in the first half and in the 4 games where they were losing 1-0 at half time away, their total shot on target production in the second half was 9 so they scored with 22% of their shots on target in the second half of the 4 games and the home teams had a total of 3 shots on target in the second half courtesy of Arsenal as the other three teams did not have a shot on target in the second half.

Conclusion

A goal in football is certainly a rare event and teams do win games and have less shots on target and I think the key to the Birmingham game is that Chelsea were exposed at the heart of the defence for the goal and it was only Drogba that tested the Birmingham keeper in the first half and in the second half given all the data that there is for 1-0 half time game state, resulted in little expectation of Chelsea fighting back and winning the game.

Chelsea had 32 shots of which 9 were on target, 15 off target and 8 blocked and 21(66%) of the shots were inside the penalty area.

This season only Everton and Manchester United have won away in the league when losing 1-0 half time away and it is not a common event.

[jonnyg]

this is the massive faw re football data and analysis > you will hear loads of people advise they have 20/30 /40 years of experience of betting >

but very few people want to push football data and analytics to the next level < the metric expected goal totals is considered by the mainstream as a great new metric when it has been used for over 10 years

and has severe limitations

[jonnyg]

Newells 1-0 HT

In the table below I have added the last 55 games in Argentina Primera ( regular season ) where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 38% ended over 2.5 goals

44-7-4 < the home teams won 80%

9/55 followed the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 2/9 ended 1-1.

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well not in this profile of game

Trading Strategy

In Argentina Primera in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.

1-0 half time to the home team in Argentina Primera added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome.

data correct to March 27th 2017

still 1-0 = trade out

[jonnyg]

Stromgodset early away goal > 1-1

11/8 15/8 5/2

2014 season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 85% ended over 2.5 goals, 54% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 85% .

In early away goal games in Tippeligaen there will be high expectation of both teams scoring as some expectation of the home team fighting back and the away teams won only 48%, 19% ended a draw and the home teams won 33% = acceleration of goal production in general > lowers expectation of a draw and very high home win %. = Huge in play betting edge ….

Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in a whopping 81% and 42% produced a goal(s) 80 +

2015 season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes tome band, 83% ended over 2.5 goals, 60% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 83%

Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in 75% and 60% produced a goal(s) 80 +

The home teams won 27%, 20% ended a draw and the away teams won 53% < expectation of the home teams fighting back

Last season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 69% ended over 2.5 goals, 53% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 81%

Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in 62.5% and 53% produced a goal(s) 80 +

GAME PATHWAY

3/32 0-1 FT

> 1-1 21/32 9-7-5, the away teams won 24%

> 0-2 8/32 1-2-5, the away teams won 62.5%

10-9-13 , the away teams won 41%

Summary

In Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , > 1-1 pathway will be far more likely then the > 0-2 pathway and as a result there will be some expectation of the home team fighting back with the BTTS YES % at a high level season on season in this profile in Tippeligaen

[jonnyg]

monster in play edge in Norway Tipp in games where the away team open the scoring 0-20 because > 1-1 pathway will be monster more likely then > 0-2 < as a result BTTS YES season on season in this league will be monster high >

I am always perplexed when I see betting sites offering BTTS YES bet advice before a game starts > zero edge as they have no idea if and when the opening goal will be scored >

[jonnyg]

EARLY AWAY GOAL
A system to show that an early away goal during a football match often produces at least one more goal, we saw that in 91% of the last 14,009 games we analysed.
91%OVER 1.5 GOALS
72%BOTH TEAMS SCORE
70%OVER 2.5 GOALS
45%OVER 3.5 GOALS
66%AWAY SCORE AGAIN
60%OVER 2.5 GOALS & BTTS
59%1ST HALF O1.5


we can see for example that in norway Tipp given an early away goal 0-20 minutes that a much higher % then the average for all early away goals games around the globe will end BTTS YES

[jonnyg]

Valerenga 1-1 Ht > are any of the prices out of line given the events of the first half ?

7/4 8/5 11/5

with over 3.5 offered at evens and over 2.5 at 2/9

given events of first half over 2.5 should be around 1/4 < over 3.5 should be around 6/5 < i am looking at the data for the profile in this league >

Strom price is spot on > i have the draw bigger and the home team shorter >


if the game is still 1-1 late on < you should be looking at laying the draw / backing over 2.5 goals <

[max_usted]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

[jonnyg]

Newells 1-0 HT

In the table below I have added the last 55 games in Argentina Primera ( regular season ) where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 38% ended over 2.5 goals

44-7-4 < the home teams won 80%

9/55 followed the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 2/9 ended 1-1.

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well not in this profile of game

Trading Strategy

In Argentina Primera in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.

1-0 half time to the home team in Argentina Primera added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome.

data correct to March 27th 2017

still 1-0 = trade out

> 1-1 < that goal 80 +

has anyone noticed that the early goal and a goal 80 + is more likely then in games with no early goal metric = very ground hog day

[jonnyg]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

I agree 100% < 1-1 FT would a surprise in this profile given the first half events < Norway < you are the first person to agree with me on a betting forum

[jonnyg]

Atletico Minero early away goal

15/8 5/2 13.10

over 3.5 is offered at 11/10

minero 2nd goal 5/2 no 2nd goal 8/1 são 2nd goal 2/5


In Brazil Serie A in 2014 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals and we can see that in general the early away goal metric in Brazil Serie A will result in acceleration of goal production.

The home teams won 31%, 21% ended a draw and the away teams won 48%.

Both teams scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 60%

31% of the early away goal games in 2014 in Brazil Serie A produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

2015 season in Brazil Serie A in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes , 64% ended over 2.5 goals and 34% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 14%, 14% ended a draw and the away teams won 72%

Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

34% of the early away goal games in Brazil Serie A 2015 season produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes.

Brazil serie A 2016 in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

13-14-24 < the away teams won 47%

Game Pathway

9/51 FT 0-1

29/51 > 1-1 12-13-4

13/51 > 0-2 1-1-11

65% ended over 2.5 goals and 43% over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 71% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in 57%

27% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

[jonnyg]

sao Paolo at home in league when conceding opening goal 0-20

2-2 1-1 0-1 0-1 3-1 1-1 1-2 4-3 1-3 3-1 0-1 1-1 3-1 2-2 2-1 1-1 2-2

5-7-5

11/17 over 2.5 = 65%