Effect of Early Goal

[max_usted]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

[jonnyg]

Newells 1-0 HT

In the table below I have added the last 55 games in Argentina Primera ( regular season ) where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 38% ended over 2.5 goals

44-7-4 < the home teams won 80%

9/55 followed the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 2/9 ended 1-1.

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well not in this profile of game

Trading Strategy

In Argentina Primera in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.

1-0 half time to the home team in Argentina Primera added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome.

data correct to March 27th 2017

still 1-0 = trade out

> 1-1 < that goal 80 +

has anyone noticed that the early goal and a goal 80 + is more likely then in games with no early goal metric = very ground hog day

[jonnyg]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

I agree 100% < 1-1 FT would a surprise in this profile given the first half events < Norway < you are the first person to agree with me on a betting forum

[jonnyg]

Atletico Minero early away goal

15/8 5/2 13.10

over 3.5 is offered at 11/10

minero 2nd goal 5/2 no 2nd goal 8/1 são 2nd goal 2/5


In Brazil Serie A in 2014 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals and we can see that in general the early away goal metric in Brazil Serie A will result in acceleration of goal production.

The home teams won 31%, 21% ended a draw and the away teams won 48%.

Both teams scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 60%

31% of the early away goal games in 2014 in Brazil Serie A produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

2015 season in Brazil Serie A in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes , 64% ended over 2.5 goals and 34% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 14%, 14% ended a draw and the away teams won 72%

Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

34% of the early away goal games in Brazil Serie A 2015 season produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes.

Brazil serie A 2016 in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

13-14-24 < the away teams won 47%

Game Pathway

9/51 FT 0-1

29/51 > 1-1 12-13-4

13/51 > 0-2 1-1-11

65% ended over 2.5 goals and 43% over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 71% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in 57%

27% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

[jonnyg]

sao Paolo at home in league when conceding opening goal 0-20

2-2 1-1 0-1 0-1 3-1 1-1 1-2 4-3 1-3 3-1 0-1 1-1 3-1 2-2 2-1 1-1 2-2

5-7-5

11/17 over 2.5 = 65%

[jonnyg]

Atletico Minero early away goal

15/8 5/2 13.10

over 3.5 is offered at 11/10

minero 2nd goal 5/2 no 2nd goal 8/1 são 2nd goal 2/5


In Brazil Serie A in 2014 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals and we can see that in general the early away goal metric in Brazil Serie A will result in acceleration of goal production.

The home teams won 31%, 21% ended a draw and the away teams won 48%.

Both teams scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 60%

31% of the early away goal games in 2014 in Brazil Serie A produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

2015 season in Brazil Serie A in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes , 64% ended over 2.5 goals and 34% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 14%, 14% ended a draw and the away teams won 72%

Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%

34% of the early away goal games in Brazil Serie A 2015 season produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes.

Brazil serie A 2016 in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

13-14-24 < the away teams won 47%

Game Pathway

9/51 FT 0-1

29/51 > 1-1 12-13-4

13/51 > 0-2 1-1-11

65% ended over 2.5 goals and 43% over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 71% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in 57%

27% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

Palmeiras early away goal

9/2 13/5 4/6

over 2.5 is offered at 4/7

bahia 2nd goal 5/6 , no 2nd goal 5/1 , palm 2nd goal 7/5

[jonnyg]

Valerenga 1-1 Ht > are any of the prices out of line given the events of the first half ?

7/4 8/5 11/5

with over 3.5 offered at evens and over 2.5 at 2/9

given events of first half over 2.5 should be around 1/4 < over 3.5 should be around 6/5 < i am looking at the data for the profile in this league >

Strom price is spot on > i have the draw bigger and the home team shorter >


if the game is still 1-1 late on < you should be looking at laying the draw / backing over 2.5 goals <

on 67 still 1-1 < you should be looking at around 72 minutes to back over 2.5 if still 1-1

[jonnyg]

Palmeiras away in league when opening the scoring 0-20

0-2 0-2 0-2 0-1 1-3 2-1 2-2 1-2 1-3 2-1 1-4 0-2 2-1 4-2 3-1 0-1 1-3 1-2 1-1 2-1 0-2

6-2-13 < will you be backing the draw in this game ???

62% over 2.5 goals = 8/13

[jonnyg]

Brazil Serie A 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes

last 50

GAME PATHWAY

14/50 0-1 FT

21/50 > 1-1 7-9-5 away teams won 24%

15/50 > 0-2 1-0-14 away teams won 93%

8-9-33 > away teams won 66% 1/0.66 = 1/2

32% produced a goal 80 + minutes

42% ended over 2.5 goals

last 50 0-1 HT goal 21-HT and only 30% over 2.5

Sao -0-1 HT


10/3 21/10 20/21


over 2.5 is offered at 11/10 < should be around 6/4

sao 2nd goal 4/6 , no 2nd goal 11/4 , Minero 2nd goal 3/1

[jonnyg]

Bahia 1-1 HT

7/4 13/10 11/4

over 3.5 is offered at 6/4

[jonnyg]

Valerenga 1-1 Ht > are any of the prices out of line given the events of the first half ?

7/4 8/5 11/5

with over 3.5 offered at evens and over 2.5 at 2/9

given events of first half over 2.5 should be around 1/4 < over 3.5 should be around 6/5 < i am looking at the data for the profile in this league >

Strom price is spot on > i have the draw bigger and the home team shorter >


if the game is still 1-1 late on < you should be looking at laying the draw / backing over 2.5 goals <

on 67 still 1-1 < you should be looking at around 72 minutes to back over 2.5 if still 1-1

luckily not often that I say this on a forum > this game was not in line with expectation as 1-1 FT is not common in this profile in Norway Tip

[jonnyg]

Bahia 1-1 HT

7/4 13/10 11/4

over 3.5 is offered at 6/4 and should be 6/4 = bang on = no value

Posted on: October 6th, 2016
In the table below I have added the last 35 games in Brazil Serie A where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1, 83% ended over 2.5 goals and 40% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 49%, 31% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 20%

37% produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

[max_usted]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

I agree 100% < 1-1 FT would a surprise in this profile given the first half events < Norway < you are the first person to agree with me on a betting forum

Unfortunately we were both wrong:)

[jonnyg]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

I agree 100% < 1-1 FT would a surprise in this profile given the first half events < Norway < you are the first person to agree with me on a betting forum

Unfortunately we were both wrong:)

indeed the wisdom of the crowds did not pay off in that game

[jonnyg]

in the Bahia game given the first half events < bahia should be shorter given expectation that should not end 1-1 < 1-1 rare in this ;profile in Brazil >