Effect of Early Goal

[jonnyg]

Valerenga 1-1 Ht > are any of the prices out of line given the events of the first half ?

7/4 8/5 11/5

with over 3.5 offered at evens and over 2.5 at 2/9

given events of first half over 2.5 should be around 1/4 < over 3.5 should be around 6/5 < i am looking at the data for the profile in this league >

Strom price is spot on > i have the draw bigger and the home team shorter >


if the game is still 1-1 late on < you should be looking at laying the draw / backing over 2.5 goals <

on 67 still 1-1 < you should be looking at around 72 minutes to back over 2.5 if still 1-1

luckily not often that I say this on a forum > this game was not in line with expectation as 1-1 FT is not common in this profile in Norway Tip

[jonnyg]

Bahia 1-1 HT

7/4 13/10 11/4

over 3.5 is offered at 6/4 and should be 6/4 = bang on = no value

Posted on: October 6th, 2016
In the table below I have added the last 35 games in Brazil Serie A where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1, 83% ended over 2.5 goals and 40% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 49%, 31% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 20%

37% produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

[max_usted]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

I agree 100% < 1-1 FT would a surprise in this profile given the first half events < Norway < you are the first person to agree with me on a betting forum

Unfortunately we were both wrong:)

[jonnyg]

Interesting - given the nature of the match so far, I'd think goal(s) are likely/possible in the second half and would favour Valerenga to win.

I agree 100% < 1-1 FT would a surprise in this profile given the first half events < Norway < you are the first person to agree with me on a betting forum

Unfortunately we were both wrong:)

indeed the wisdom of the crowds did not pay off in that game

[jonnyg]

in the Bahia game given the first half events < bahia should be shorter given expectation that should not end 1-1 < 1-1 rare in this ;profile in Brazil >

[max_usted]

Bahia 1-1 HT

7/4 13/10 11/4

over 3.5 is offered at 6/4 and should be 6/4 = bang on = no value

Posted on: October 6th, 2016
In the table below I have added the last 35 games in Brazil Serie A where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1, 83% ended over 2.5 goals and 40% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 49%, 31% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 20%

37% produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

This might be of value - will watch

[jonnyg]

that is me done for evening > hope you enjoyed the analysis > I loved it > off to watch Love island because I support Margate Fc

nice to see a positive response to my analysis < first time ever > on a betting forum > then again Jeremy Corbyn was very unpopular and look where he is now < image is everything ???

back in a month so as not to clutter the forum >

[jonnyg]

Brazil Serie A 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes

last 50

GAME PATHWAY

14/50 0-1 FT

21/50 > 1-1 7-9-5 away teams won 24%

15/50 > 0-2 1-0-14 away teams won 93%

8-9-33 > away teams won 66% 1/0.66 = 1/2

32% produced a goal 80 + minutes

42% ended over 2.5 goals

last 50 0-1 HT goal 21-HT and only 30% over 2.5

Sao -0-1 HT


10/3 21/10 20/21


over 2.5 is offered at 11/10 < should be around 6/4

sao 2nd goal 4/6 , no 2nd goal 11/4 , Minero 2nd goal 3/1

Posted on: November 18th, 2015
In the table below I have added the last 36 games in Brazil Serie A where the away teams were winning 1-0 at half time and there was a home fightback ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 19% ended over 3.5 goals

The home teams won 42%, 36% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 22% < lowered expectation of the away teams winning.

0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric in the table below > 2-1 2-1 1-2 2-2 1-1 3-1 1-2 1-2 3-1 4-2 2-1 2-1 > and in general the early away goal in Brazil Serie A added to 0-1 half time and the home fightback metric will result in expectation of further goal(s) production which as a result will lower the expectation of the games ending a draw < indeed >

> 1-2 < that goal 80 +

[jonnyg]

Palmeiras away in league when opening the scoring 0-20

0-2 0-2 0-2 0-1 1-3 2-1 2-2 1-2 1-3 2-1 1-4 0-2 2-1 4-2 3-1 0-1 1-3 1-2 1-1 2-1 0-2

6-2-13 < will you be backing the draw in this game ???

62% over 2.5 goals = 8/13

given the first half events < we had the expected 2nd half goal(s)

that goal(s) 80 +

BUT i had more expectation of a home win then the market did

2-4

[jonnyg]

have you noticed how common a goal 80 + is in an early goal game ?

would like to see Mike put on a Margate shirt in the Vila followed by some Margate fans steaming into the Vila to stand alongside him >

[jonnyg]

The Minero game was a monster because 0-1 Ht goal 0-20 > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 and 1-1 FT will be a rare event > in Brazil serie A

[jonnyg]

Did he say " MUGGY MIKE "

WHAT A LIBERTY

[jonnyg]

is football 50% random or are your betting patterns random ?

[jonnyg]

I am going to show you a massive in play edge via the game last night >
Nueva Chicago
1 - 2
Argentinos Juniors View events More info
0 - 1
8' B. Romero
0 - 2
54' B. Romero
P. Charpentier 86'
1 - 2

in terms of next goal betting and the inability of the betting industry in play algo to price next goal betting to a high standard >

if we fast forward to >

0-1 HT in the game above > No 2nd goal was offered at 7/4 < in effect the price is saying that there was a 36% expectation that there would be no further goal > 1/0.36 = 7/4 and I am going to show you that there was a much higher expectation of a further goal because of the effect of the early away goal and 0-1 half time game state in Argentina Nacional >

we should start by looking at why the market defined a 36% of no further goals in this game >

1. it looks at the expected goal total before the game

2. it could see the score was 0-1 at HT

what it could not see was that the opening goal had been scored on 8 minutes > the in play algorithm used by the betting industry does not factor the time of the opening goal in terms of the effect on accuracy as time decays which is an error >

[jonnyg]

1 - 2
Argentinos Juniors View events More info
0 - 1
8' B. Romero
0 - 2
54' B. Romero
P. Charpentier 86'
1 - 2

now the data part > last 25 games in Argentina B Nacional where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT

20/25 ended over 1.5 goals = 80% = 1/4 = a massive difference in opinion in terms of expectation of further goal production


now I am going to play devils advocate and advise that my sample size is too small >

so to counter that argument > I am going to show you a bigger sample size to see if the early goal and game state ( current score ) is simply a trend or not ????