great stuff Dallas > I am just preparing the next goal data < btts yes / over 2.5 / 3.5 , goal 80 + HDA for that time period as well > luckily for me = exactly 500 games >
Effect of Early Goal
Premier LEAGUE since 2009-2010 < inclusive > 500 games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 373/500 ended over 2.5 goals = 74.60% 1/0.746 = 1.34
242/500 ended over 3.5 goals = 48.4% , 1/0.484 = 2.07 < at 0-1 in games in the Premier League where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band < over 3.5 will be offered in the range 8/11 -10/11
Both teams scored in 380/500 = 76% 1/0.76 = 1.32
214/500 produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes = 42.8% 1/0.428 = 2.34
GAME PATHWAY
39/500 0-1 FT = 7.8% 1/0.78 = 12/1
247/500 > 1-1 100-91-56
214/500 > 0-2 11-22-181
111-113-276 away teams won 55.2 = 4/5
242/500 ended over 3.5 goals = 48.4% , 1/0.484 = 2.07 < at 0-1 in games in the Premier League where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band < over 3.5 will be offered in the range 8/11 -10/11
Both teams scored in 380/500 = 76% 1/0.76 = 1.32
214/500 produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes = 42.8% 1/0.428 = 2.34
GAME PATHWAY
39/500 0-1 FT = 7.8% 1/0.78 = 12/1
247/500 > 1-1 100-91-56
214/500 > 0-2 11-22-181
111-113-276 away teams won 55.2 = 4/5
Last edited by jonnyg on Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:41 am, edited 8 times in total.
Last 250 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band >
76% ended over 2.5 goals > 1/0.76 = 1.32
50% ended over 3.5 goals = EVENS
Both teams scored in 74% 1/ 0.74 = 4/11
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes , 1/0.42 = 7/5
GAME PATHWAY
19/250 0-1 FT = 7.6% , 1/0.076 = 12/1
123/250 > 1-1 48-46-29 away teams won 24%
108/250 > 0-2 6-9-93 > away teams won 86% , 1/0.86 = 1.16
54-55-141 < away teams won 56% 1/0.56 = 4/5
76% ended over 2.5 goals > 1/0.76 = 1.32
50% ended over 3.5 goals = EVENS
Both teams scored in 74% 1/ 0.74 = 4/11
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes , 1/0.42 = 7/5
GAME PATHWAY
19/250 0-1 FT = 7.6% , 1/0.076 = 12/1
123/250 > 1-1 48-46-29 away teams won 24%
108/250 > 0-2 6-9-93 > away teams won 86% , 1/0.86 = 1.16
54-55-141 < away teams won 56% 1/0.56 = 4/5
you may find this counter intuitive but the biggest red herring re football data and analysis is sample size > your focus should be on looking at a sample with similar variable(s)
a basic summary > I have spent the last 5 years + looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of survival analysis >
if you have good coding skills then add my very strong analytical skills
a basic summary > I have spent the last 5 years + looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of survival analysis >
if you have good coding skills then add my very strong analytical skills
I am going to give you an insight into how you could take your football data and analysis to the next level >
as the data shows a team 0 are likely to have more chances then + 1 game state < because team + 1 and -1 could go into a shell.
a team -1 are likely to produce more chances then team on +1 but could
be of lowered accuracy
Season team location Game State Sum Time in Game State Sum Time in Game State % Sum Superb Chance Sum Great Chance Sum Very Good Chance Sum Good Chance Sum Fairly Good Chance Sum Poor Chance Sig_Chances All_Chances Chance_Ratio Superb_per90 Great_per90 vGood_per90 Good_per90 fGood_per90 Poor_per90 Sig_Chances_per90 All_Chances_per90
2013/14 Arsenal away -1 216.25 12.21670888 0.171076614 4.685598377 1.444843984 4.233657627 4.910794018 16.28040856 4.856674991 31.72637918 0.153080027 0.074363939 2.036745653 0.628047789 1.840295107 2.134634163 7.076801872 2.111109592 13.79088852
2013/14 Arsenal away -2 78.56666667 4.43850217 0.057025538 1.561866126 0.510353461 1.800058627 1.376701441 2.582253886 1.618891664 7.888259079 0.205228004 0.068227415 1.868673091 0.610605328 2.15365521 1.647135369 3.089501892 1.936900506 9.437798304
2013/14 Arsenal away -3 66.26666667 3.743632717 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.178653373 1.166518255 1.24265822 3.443005181 0.849626125 6.880461154 0.123483892 0.199928711 1.00527535 0.253421787 1.654719053 1.762724437 4.883940951 1.205204061 9.760010289
2013/14 Arsenal away -4 80.53333333 4.549605958 0 0 0.043108199 0.583259127 1.596070043 7.746761658 0 9.969199027 0 0 0 0.050316689 0.680790869 1.86296255 9.042163856 0 11.63623396
2013/14 Arsenal away -5 22.1 1.248505277 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.178653373 1.166518255 0.824912106 0.860751295 0.849626125 3.880461154 0.218949782 0.599484581 3.014309796 0.759883125 4.961661355 3.508675927 3.661114107 3.613794378 16.50512889
2013/14 Arsenal away -6 19.78333333 1.117628782 0 0 0.043108199 0.583259127 0.62132911 1.721502591 0 2.969199027 0 0 0 0.2048275 2.771340757 2.952229302 8.179675326 0 14.10807288
2013/14 Arsenal away 0.+ 107.8833333 6.094701856 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.382920772 3.600117255 2.614154177 4.303756477 0.849626125 11.75057481 0.072305069 0.122804968 0.617484133 0.333643312 3.136823933 2.277742864 3.74991295 0.7402891 10.23841216
2013/14 Arsenal away 0 581.0166667 32.82363686 1.100649637 8.084516565 2.200981435 10.64950803 11.81079688 36.1515544 9.185166202 69.99800695 0.131220396 0.178069016 1.307956554 0.35608661 1.722934663 1.910814217 5.84879283 1.48602557 11.32465389
2013/14 Arsenal away 1 364.0333333 20.56549945 0.875789872 8.229015744 2.526460946 12.44956666 9.14928589 13.77202073 9.104805616 47.00213983 0.193710449 0.226144807 2.124880908 0.652377975 3.214703596 2.362511328 3.556185189 2.351025715 12.1368038
2013/14 Arsenal away 2 181.2833333 10.24132119 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.598461768 6.516412891 4.8853075 7.746761658 0.849626125 20.59656994 0.041250855 0.073082335 0.367470331 0.310317585 3.378925136 2.533155677 4.016892135 0.440552666 10.6798432
2013/14 Arsenal away 3 52.4 2.960256857 0.028512769 0.780933063 0.22566398 0.583259127 0.62132911 1.721502591 0.809445832 3.96120064 0.204343558 0.05114886 1.400910456 0.404817063 1.046304541 1.114598022 3.08819167 1.452059317 7.105970614
2013/14 Arsenal away All 1770.116667 100 2.796825037 26.17666377 8.33320949 43.33213498 39.6533385 96.33027903 28.97348881 216.6224508 0.13375109 0.148522162 1.390081479 0.44252546 2.301102952 2.105744717 5.115508147 1.538603641 11.50348492
2013/14 Arsenal home -1 124.4333333 7.008486032 0.19796819 2.270549599 0.877356931 5.349894637 4.199644099 7.746761658 2.468517789 20.64217511 0.119586128 0.149550039 1.715229003 0.662777001 4.04144197 3.172514427 5.852094261 1.864779042 15.5936067
2013/14 Arsenal home -2 9.833333333 0.553844998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2013/14 Arsenal home 0.+ 116.8666667 6.582306999 0.395936379 4.541099198 1.189663569 3.549836009 2.683693953 4.303756477 4.937035578 16.66398559 0.296269794 0.318465656 3.652566954 0.956888553 2.855258855 2.158590116 3.461663795 3.971032609 13.40343393
2013/14 Arsenal home 0 654.6833333 36.87387354 2.345484313 23.26968029 5.624415207 15.21501856 16.64201191 48.20207254 25.6151646 111.2986828 0.230147958 0.336766669 3.341080849 0.807558406 2.184585542 2.389474483 6.920895321 3.677847518 15.98036127
2013/14 Arsenal home 1 548.3833333 30.88671523 1.243213482 11.98918188 3.64697603 17.6988988 15.51135745 33.49543447 13.23239536 83.58506212 0.158310529 0.213102879 2.055100927 0.625138887 3.033820297 2.658847401 5.741550935 2.268203806 14.32756133
2013/14 Arsenal home 2 236.7166667 13.33264494 0.5653918 6.030715735 1.276306227 1.166518255 2.495896562 11.18976684 6.596107534 22.72459542 0.290262925 0.224516634 2.39479242 0.506820187 0.463223471 0.991118539 4.443447509 2.619309054 9.023918761
2013/14 Arsenal home 3 60.15 3.387841694 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.135545174 0.583259127 0.760577815 2.582253886 0.849626125 4.911262127 0.172995475 0.220259505 1.10750202 0.211824544 0.911493898 1.188600409 4.035442482 1.327761525 7.675122858
2013/14 Arsenal home 4 24.4 1.374286573 0 0 0 0 0.139248705 0.860751295 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.536449928 3.316009089 0 3.852459016
2013/14 Arsenal home All 1775.466667 100 4.888936816 48.80991017 12.75026314 43.56342539 42.43243049 108.3807972 53.69884699 260.8257632 0.205880149 0.258839025 2.584183439 0.675047726 2.306414456 2.246535258 5.738094172 2.843022464 13.80911408
as the data shows a team 0 are likely to have more chances then + 1 game state < because team + 1 and -1 could go into a shell.
a team -1 are likely to produce more chances then team on +1 but could
be of lowered accuracy
Season team location Game State Sum Time in Game State Sum Time in Game State % Sum Superb Chance Sum Great Chance Sum Very Good Chance Sum Good Chance Sum Fairly Good Chance Sum Poor Chance Sig_Chances All_Chances Chance_Ratio Superb_per90 Great_per90 vGood_per90 Good_per90 fGood_per90 Poor_per90 Sig_Chances_per90 All_Chances_per90
2013/14 Arsenal away -1 216.25 12.21670888 0.171076614 4.685598377 1.444843984 4.233657627 4.910794018 16.28040856 4.856674991 31.72637918 0.153080027 0.074363939 2.036745653 0.628047789 1.840295107 2.134634163 7.076801872 2.111109592 13.79088852
2013/14 Arsenal away -2 78.56666667 4.43850217 0.057025538 1.561866126 0.510353461 1.800058627 1.376701441 2.582253886 1.618891664 7.888259079 0.205228004 0.068227415 1.868673091 0.610605328 2.15365521 1.647135369 3.089501892 1.936900506 9.437798304
2013/14 Arsenal away -3 66.26666667 3.743632717 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.178653373 1.166518255 1.24265822 3.443005181 0.849626125 6.880461154 0.123483892 0.199928711 1.00527535 0.253421787 1.654719053 1.762724437 4.883940951 1.205204061 9.760010289
2013/14 Arsenal away -4 80.53333333 4.549605958 0 0 0.043108199 0.583259127 1.596070043 7.746761658 0 9.969199027 0 0 0 0.050316689 0.680790869 1.86296255 9.042163856 0 11.63623396
2013/14 Arsenal away -5 22.1 1.248505277 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.178653373 1.166518255 0.824912106 0.860751295 0.849626125 3.880461154 0.218949782 0.599484581 3.014309796 0.759883125 4.961661355 3.508675927 3.661114107 3.613794378 16.50512889
2013/14 Arsenal away -6 19.78333333 1.117628782 0 0 0.043108199 0.583259127 0.62132911 1.721502591 0 2.969199027 0 0 0 0.2048275 2.771340757 2.952229302 8.179675326 0 14.10807288
2013/14 Arsenal away 0.+ 107.8833333 6.094701856 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.382920772 3.600117255 2.614154177 4.303756477 0.849626125 11.75057481 0.072305069 0.122804968 0.617484133 0.333643312 3.136823933 2.277742864 3.74991295 0.7402891 10.23841216
2013/14 Arsenal away 0 581.0166667 32.82363686 1.100649637 8.084516565 2.200981435 10.64950803 11.81079688 36.1515544 9.185166202 69.99800695 0.131220396 0.178069016 1.307956554 0.35608661 1.722934663 1.910814217 5.84879283 1.48602557 11.32465389
2013/14 Arsenal away 1 364.0333333 20.56549945 0.875789872 8.229015744 2.526460946 12.44956666 9.14928589 13.77202073 9.104805616 47.00213983 0.193710449 0.226144807 2.124880908 0.652377975 3.214703596 2.362511328 3.556185189 2.351025715 12.1368038
2013/14 Arsenal away 2 181.2833333 10.24132119 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.598461768 6.516412891 4.8853075 7.746761658 0.849626125 20.59656994 0.041250855 0.073082335 0.367470331 0.310317585 3.378925136 2.533155677 4.016892135 0.440552666 10.6798432
2013/14 Arsenal away 3 52.4 2.960256857 0.028512769 0.780933063 0.22566398 0.583259127 0.62132911 1.721502591 0.809445832 3.96120064 0.204343558 0.05114886 1.400910456 0.404817063 1.046304541 1.114598022 3.08819167 1.452059317 7.105970614
2013/14 Arsenal away All 1770.116667 100 2.796825037 26.17666377 8.33320949 43.33213498 39.6533385 96.33027903 28.97348881 216.6224508 0.13375109 0.148522162 1.390081479 0.44252546 2.301102952 2.105744717 5.115508147 1.538603641 11.50348492
2013/14 Arsenal home -1 124.4333333 7.008486032 0.19796819 2.270549599 0.877356931 5.349894637 4.199644099 7.746761658 2.468517789 20.64217511 0.119586128 0.149550039 1.715229003 0.662777001 4.04144197 3.172514427 5.852094261 1.864779042 15.5936067
2013/14 Arsenal home -2 9.833333333 0.553844998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2013/14 Arsenal home 0.+ 116.8666667 6.582306999 0.395936379 4.541099198 1.189663569 3.549836009 2.683693953 4.303756477 4.937035578 16.66398559 0.296269794 0.318465656 3.652566954 0.956888553 2.855258855 2.158590116 3.461663795 3.971032609 13.40343393
2013/14 Arsenal home 0 654.6833333 36.87387354 2.345484313 23.26968029 5.624415207 15.21501856 16.64201191 48.20207254 25.6151646 111.2986828 0.230147958 0.336766669 3.341080849 0.807558406 2.184585542 2.389474483 6.920895321 3.677847518 15.98036127
2013/14 Arsenal home 1 548.3833333 30.88671523 1.243213482 11.98918188 3.64697603 17.6988988 15.51135745 33.49543447 13.23239536 83.58506212 0.158310529 0.213102879 2.055100927 0.625138887 3.033820297 2.658847401 5.741550935 2.268203806 14.32756133
2013/14 Arsenal home 2 236.7166667 13.33264494 0.5653918 6.030715735 1.276306227 1.166518255 2.495896562 11.18976684 6.596107534 22.72459542 0.290262925 0.224516634 2.39479242 0.506820187 0.463223471 0.991118539 4.443447509 2.619309054 9.023918761
2013/14 Arsenal home 3 60.15 3.387841694 0.140942652 0.708683473 0.135545174 0.583259127 0.760577815 2.582253886 0.849626125 4.911262127 0.172995475 0.220259505 1.10750202 0.211824544 0.911493898 1.188600409 4.035442482 1.327761525 7.675122858
2013/14 Arsenal home 4 24.4 1.374286573 0 0 0 0 0.139248705 0.860751295 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.536449928 3.316009089 0 3.852459016
2013/14 Arsenal home All 1775.466667 100 4.888936816 48.80991017 12.75026314 43.56342539 42.43243049 108.3807972 53.69884699 260.8257632 0.205880149 0.258839025 2.584183439 0.675047726 2.306414456 2.246535258 5.738094172 2.843022464 13.80911408
Last edited by jonnyg on Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
if you can combine game state ( current score ) with chance creation and the effect of the time of the opening goal < then I think you will have a jaw dropping in play model < contact me when you have built it > I have very strong analytical skills >