Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric

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jonnyg
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1. Montedio V Tokushima > over 1.5 goal at 1/9 at 0-1 WON FT 1-6

2. Machida v Tokyo Verdy > over 1.5 goals at 1/9 at 0-1 WON FT 2-4

3. Jenobuk v Daegu > over 1.5 at 1/10 at 0-1 Void . as I write < penalty
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:50 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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jonnyg
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3. Tromso V Sanderfjord over 1.5 goals at 1/20 at 0-1 WON FT 1-1

4. Sadnes v Jerv over 1.5 goals at 1/20 at 0-1 WON FT 0-3

5. Bodo v Strommen over 1.5 goals at 1/40 at 0-1 WON FT 4-3

6. Stabaek V Krist over 1.5 goals at 1/14 at 0-1 WON FT 1-4
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jonnyg
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7. Universitario V Bolivar over 1.5 goals at 0-1 at 1/16 WON

my record winning streak doing this strategy is 51 <
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jonnyg
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sao 1-0 (-) Fluminense/RJ

and 1/4 < SPOT ON

over 1.5 at Ht is offered at 1/5 < should be bigger and over 2.5 is offered at 10/11 and should be around 9/4 +


1-0 HT < we should see around 80% = 1/4 expectation of a home win , 30% expectation of over 2.5 goals and only around 55% expectation of over 1.5 goals < this is based on early goal data which I have collated for Brazil serie A 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes < the forum mod does not want me to produce my data < so I will post bets that I feel will end over 1.5 given the early goal event <

the reason why I did not offer over 1.5 goals in this game when sao opened the scoring was the concern that if 1-0 HT = serious trouble with lowered expectation of goal production expected in the 2nd half <
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:02 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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jonnyg
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Atlético/PR
1-1 (-) Vitória/BA

HT

over 2.5 is offered at 1/3 < should be bigger < > over 3.5 is offered at 11/8 and should be around 7/2


1-1 HT < early away and 1-1 HT Brazil serie A < 1-1 Ft is much more likely then you would think < around 45% expectation of no further goals in this profile in brazil serie A
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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jonnyg
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I have spent over 5 years devoting all my spare time to looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal on accuracy as time decays and re expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis

all my data is manually collated < would love to see someone take early goal data in individual leagues ( + team specific early goal data ) to the automated phase > :idea:
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jonnyg
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avoiding the early away goal game in Argentina Primera < if you look at early away goal data in this league < does not scream acceleration of goal production in general
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:19 pm
7. Universitario V Bolivar over 1.5 goals at 0-1 at 1/16 WON

my record winning streak doing this strategy is 51 <

winning streak 7

losing streak 0

C/F
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:43 pm
sao 1-0 (-) Fluminense/RJ

and 1/4 < SPOT ON

over 1.5 at Ht is offered at 1/5 < should be bigger and over 2.5 is offered at 10/11 and should be around 9/4 +


1-0 HT < we should see around 80% = 1/4 expectation of a home win , 30% expectation of over 2.5 goals and only around 55% expectation of over 1.5 goals < this is based on early goal data which I have collated for Brazil serie A 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes < the forum mod does not want me to produce my data < so I will post bets that I feel will end over 1.5 given the early goal event <

the reason why I did not offer over 1.5 goals in this game when sao opened the scoring was the concern that if 1-0 HT = serious trouble with lowered expectation of goal production expected in the 2nd half <
FT 1-1
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jonnyg
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8 Alianza Lima0-1Sport Rosario over 1.5 goals at 1/10 < damn > goes 1-1 as I write VOID

my data suggests that Peru primera in terms of the effect of the early away goal = boom boom shake the room goals > highest in the globe re expectation of over 3.5 < given the early away goal >
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:14 pm
jonnyg wrote:
Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:19 pm
7. Universitario V Bolivar over 1.5 goals at 0-1 at 1/16 WON

my record winning streak doing this strategy is 51 <

winning streak 7

losing streak 0

C/F
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jonnyg
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hope you are enjoying the over 1.5 goal challenge in an early goal game < you should see very long winning runs and very short losing sequences >
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jonnyg
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Chapecoense
0 - 1
Atlético Mineiro View events More info
0 - 1
12' Marlone

last night < FT 0-1 > so by definition the early away goal in this game did not accelerate goal production >

the data that I can offer is that in Brazil Serie A in games where the away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes > you are looking at around 57% expectation that the game will end over 1.5 goals in the first half > the game above was 0-1 at HT >

with around 30% expectation of no further goals in the 2nd half > in effect if you back over 1.5 goals in a game in Brazil Serie A at 0-1 and 0-1 HT < you are basically in trouble <


although in general brazil serie a 0-1 HT goal 0-20 and you will see a higher goal production in the 2nd half then in games brazil serie a 0-1 HT goal 21-HT < I checked <
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jonnyg
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Sat 23/08/14 BUN Borussia Dortmund
0 - 2
Bayer Leverkusen View events More info
0 - 1
1' K. Bellarabi
0 - 2
90' S. Kießling

this is a very important game in terms of lack of emergence of interest in the early goal metric < the Racing Post were commissioned to write a blog advising that the early goal did not " lead to a landslide of goals "

the example highlighted was the game above > as it happens > I have 0-1 half time goal 0-20 minutes Bundesliga data going back a few seasons and I understand how the first half events may effect expectation of goal production as time decays in that profile in Bundesliga >

brings on a key point > if you decide to investigate the effect of an early goal < I strongly advise not taking a blanket approach < you need to look at individual leagues added to the major game states ( HT current scores ) = 0-1 1-1 1-0 HT and the effect re accuracy as time decays in the 2nd half <
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jonnyg
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Dalkurd went 2-0 too quickly , was typing as they scored goal 2.

in the trellborgs game = early away goal = I am swerving because in general early away superettan and we dont see acceleration of goal production in general < a high % end 0-1 FT when 0-1 HT so if trellborg game 0-1 Ht < goal backers will be in trouble

I have all the data > the forum mod does not want me to produce it <
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