Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric

[CLOWNSHOES]

There is not a single piece of data posted by you any where on this forum, copy and pasting text of results from past years and a few lines of conclusions is not data!

If you want to share some data fine your welcome to do so, if you just want to spam a forum with your blog material I'd suggest finding another forum

, posts are scarily similar to cassini.

[jonnyg]

Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

this game was a monster today > survival analysis < if you look at 0-1 HT added to the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band in J2 league >

0-2 pathway is just as likely as > 1-1

at HT Avispa were offered at 1/2 to score goal 2 and Zweigen at 10/3 to score goal 2 >

my summary re my last 5 years of research into the time of the opening goals in individual leagues is to focus on next goal betting because the betting industry are not strong at pricing 2nd goal betting in early goal games

[jonnyg]

Juventude
2 - 0
Guarani View events More info
Tiago Marques 3'
1 - 0
Ruan 50'
2 - 0

if we fast forward to HT in this game we can look at survival analysis in terms of expectation of the game > 1-1 , sticking at 1-0 or going > 2-0


last 53 games in Brazil Serie B where the home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band , and 1-0 HT

only 14/53 > went to 1-1 pathway


45-8-0 < lowered expectation of the away team fighting back > indeed lowered expectation of the away team scoring in the 2nd half in this profile in Brazil serie B

[jonnyg]

Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

this game was a monster today > survival analysis < if you look at 0-1 HT added to the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band in J2 league >

0-2 pathway is just as likely as > 1-1

at HT Avispa were offered at 1/2 to score goal 2 and Zweigen at 10/3 to score goal 2 >

my summary re my last 5 years of research into the time of the opening goals in individual leagues is to focus on next goal betting because the betting industry are not strong at pricing 2nd goal betting in early goal games

last 56 games in J2 league where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band >

6/56 home wins = 11%

1/0.11 = 8/1

hang on > at HT Avispa were offered at 21/10

and in the 56 games the home team scored the 2nd goal in 20/56 = 36% = 7/4

hang on because Avispa were offered at 1/2 to score goal 2


what you are looking at is Survival analysis > in effect at HT the market had higher expectation that Avispa would fightback in the 2nd half given the first half events >

the in play edge is that the betting industry do not factor the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the effect of game state as time decays but you can


data without analysis is ANT without Dek

[jonnyg]

as a basic summary > my advice is to ignore every pre off and in play trading model that is in existence apart from the betting industry algorithm >

all you need to do > sounds simple but I cant find anyone who can do it > thus far >

create prices for next goal betting and goal prices as time decays around the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the current score as time decays in an individual league > should be really simple if you can scrape the time data from a source >

and then compare to the betting industry in play prices >

[jonnyg]

Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura < over 3.5 on 20 was offered at 11/10
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

Nagoya Grampus
0 - 2
Tokushima Vortis View events More info
0 - 1
6' R. Izutsu < over 3.5 on 6 minutes was offered at 8/11
0 - 2
55' T. Sugimoto

the goal lines on 6 minutes and 20 minutes respectively in both games ( after the opening goal ) were set at 3.5 and in an instant I could see that was wrong < too high > and I am going to show you how i made that conclusion >

[jonnyg]

I could show you data where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and you will see that the goal line should be set at 2.5 in j2 league with a price around 4/5 < you in effect will be betting on another goal in the first half if you back over 2.5 goals in J2 early away goal games simply as a very high % end 0-1 HT and 0-1 HT goal 0-20 J2 and we see goal production impeded in the 2nd half in general >

what I am going to show you is all the games I can produce in J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 6 minutes and 20 minutes respectively >

what will the average goal production be in the 2 samples ???

[jonnyg]

Nagoya Grampus
0 - 2
Tokushima Vortis View events More info
0 - 1
6' R. Izutsu
0 - 2
55' T. Sugimoto


Zweigen Kanazawa
3 - 2
Yokohama View events More info
0 - 1
6' A. Laajab
K. Nakami (PG) 17'
1 - 1
1 - 2
55' A. Laajab
K. Miyazaki 69'
2 - 2
K. Sato 79'
3 - 2


Machida Zelvia
2 - 4
Tokyo Verdy View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Watanabe
0 - 2
51' S. Hatanaka
0 - 3
56' Alan Pinheiro
M. Yoshida 64'
1 - 3
1 - 4
77' Koki Anzai
H. Todaka 90'
2 - 4

Kamatamare Sanuki
1 - 3
Gifu View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Furuhashi
0 - 2
14' J. Tanaka
K. Ganaha 72'
1 - 2
1 - 3
89' K. Yamada


JEF United
1 - 1
ThespaKusatsu … View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Takai
I. Takahashi 67'
1 - 1

Tokyo Verdy
2 - 1
Shimizu S-Pulse View events More info
0 - 1
6' R. Shirasaki
D. Takagi 44'
1 - 1
Y. Takagi 45'
2 - 1

Kamatamare Sanuki
0 - 1
Machida Zelvia View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Shigematsu

V-Varen Nagasaki
2 - 1
Gifu View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Kazama
R. Kajikawa 25'
1 - 1
D. Kanzaki 62'
2 - 1


Gifu
0 - 3
Oita Trinita View events More info
0 - 1
6' A. Hyodo
0 - 2
29' M. Matsumoto
0 - 3
64' H. Tameda

Tokushima Vortis
2 - 1
JEF United View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Oiwa
Y. Hasegawa 74'
1 - 1
T. Tsuda 87'
2 - 1


Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
6' S. Mizunaga
0 - 2
75' S. Mizunaga

Fagiano Okayama
0 - 1
Tokyo Verdy View events More info
0 - 1
6' M. Chugo

Avispa Fukuoka
1 - 1
ThespaKusatsu … View events More info
0 - 1
6' T. Kobayashi
D. Sakata 86'
1 - 1

V-Varen Nagasaki
1 - 1
Fagiano Okayama View events More info
0 - 1
6' Y. Kubo
R. Takasugi 88'
1 - 1


Tokyo Verdy
1 - 1
Oita Trinita View events More info
0 - 1
6' Jung-Han Choi
S. Tokiwa 62'
1 - 1


Mito Hollyhock
5 - 1
Kyoto Sanga View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Mitsuhira
K. Baba 32'
1 - 1
K. Mishima 36'
2 - 1
M. Yoshida 79'
3 - 1
K. Mishima 85'
4 - 1
K. Uchida 90'
5 - 1

Tokushima Vortis
4 - 1
ThespaKusatsu … View events More info
0 - 1
6' T. Kobayashi
T. Tsuda (PG) 39'
1 - 1
K. Shibasaki 54'
2 - 1
Douglas 83'
3 - 1
Douglas 85'
4 - 1

Gamba Osaka
3 - 2
Vissel Kobe View events More info
0 - 1
6' Popo
T. Usami 8'
1 - 1
T. Usami 39'
2 - 1
Y. Endō 54'
3 - 1
3 - 2
57' Y. Tashiro

Oita Trinita
1 - 2
Yokohama View events More info
0 - 1
6' Y. Takeoka
Y. Morishima (PG) 50'
1 - 1
1 - 2
57' Kaio

Giravanz Kitak…
2 - 3
Ventforet Kofu View events More info
0 - 1
6' Y. Kashiwa
Jong-Pil Kim 48'
1 - 1
S. Tokiwa 77'
2 - 1
2 - 2
85' Davi
2 - 3
90' N. Hatada

[jonnyg]

Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

Renofa Yamaguchi
1 - 1
Kyoto Sanga View events More info
0 - 1
20' T. Koyamatsu
Chan-Yong Park 58'
1 - 1

Tokushima Vortis
2 - 1
Avispa Fukuoka View events More info
0 - 1
20' Y. Saneto
Y. Shimaya 24'
1 - 1
Y. Uchida 53'
2 - 1

Mito Hollyhock
0 - 2
Renofa Yamaguchi View events More info
0 - 1
20' T. Fukumitsu
0 - 2
58' T. Fukumitsu

Renofa Yamaguchi
0 - 4
Shimizu S-Pulse View events More info
0 - 1
20' R. Shirasaki
0 - 2
38' H. Ishige
0 - 3
85' K. Kitagawa
0 - 4
88' K. Murata

Fagiano Okayama
0 - 1
Giravanz Kitak… View events More info
0 - 1
20' D. Kawashima

Giravanz Kitak…
1 - 1
Consadole Sapporo View events More info
0 - 1
20' Y. Uchimura
K. Hara 90'
1 - 1

Mito Hollyhock
1 - 1
Oita Trinita View events More info
0 - 1
20' R. Nagai (PG)
K. Baba (PG) 36'
1 - 1

Consadole Sapporo
0 - 1
V-Varen Nagasaki View events More info
0 - 1
20' Y. Kimura


Avispa Fukuoka
1 - 3
Kyoto Sanga View events More info
0 - 1
20' S. Yamaguchi
0 - 2
39' Y. Ishibitsu
0 - 3
56' T. Sueyoshi (OG)
T. Nakahara 77'
1 - 3

Matsumoto Yamaga
1 - 2
Fagiano Okayama View events More info
0 - 1
20' T. Ishihara
H. Yamamoto 82'
1 - 1
1 - 2
90' T. Arata

Kyoto Sanga
3 - 1
Avispa Fukuoka View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Bajalica (OG)
R. Sakai 79'
1 - 1
Douglas 81'
2 - 1
M. Oguro 90'
3 - 1

Ehime
2 - 3
Fagiano Okayama View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Ueda (PG)
0 - 2
23' S. Tanaka
0 - 3
36' E. Katayama
Y. Horigome 73'
1 - 3
R. Watanabe 90'
2 - 3

Consadole Sapporo
0 - 1
Ehime View events More info
0 - 1
20' N. Fuji

Mito Hollyhock
1 - 2
JEF United View events More info
0 - 1
20' A. Hyodo
K. Funatani 39'
1 - 1
1 - 2
47' T. Yazawa

Kamatamare Sanuki
1 - 4
Júbilo Iwata View events More info
0 - 1
20' R. Yamazaki
S. Suganuma (OG) 36'
1 - 1
1 - 2
49' R. Maeda
1 - 3
52' R. Yamazaki
1 - 4
63' Y. Komano

Tochigi
0 - 1
Ehime View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Kato

Tokushima Vortis
1 - 2
JEF United View events More info
0 - 1
20' A. Hyodo
K. Shibasaki 66'
1 - 1
1 - 2
68' D. Ito

Gainare Tottori
0 - 2
Consadole Sapporo View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Sunakawa
0 - 2
24' Y. Okamoto

Tokyo Verdy
1 - 1
Avispa Fukuoka View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Koga
S. Nakajima 83'
1 - 1

[jonnyg]

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 6 minutes and the average goal production was 3.3 with 35% ending over 3.5 goals . 1/0.35 = 15/8 < if you remember on 6 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 8/11

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 20 minutes and the average goal production was 2.6 with 25% over 3.5 goals , 1/0.25 = 3/1 < if you remember on 20 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 11/10

[jonnyg]

As a basic summary there is some interest in the early goal and the effect in terms of goal production > the majority of people looking at the early goal are simply backing goals with a blanket approach without understanding the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the game state in an individual league ( current score )

If the betting industry see a flood of bets for goals in early goal games < they will < and I can see that they are < simply push up the goal line < wisdom of the crowds ??

while people were backing goals in the J2 early goal games yesterday < my crew were doing the exact opposite >

key point is that my crew is very small > myself and my mate Dave < my tech skills are Pants and my mate Dave thinks the ZX Spectrum is a modern appliance

all you need to do in terms of expectation of goal production is to repeat the process so goal on 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 in each league that you are interested in < by the away team

repeat for opening goal by home team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 < and for Premier League add 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 < you will be in for a surprise there < in the PL < because you should find in the Pl that the opening goal 11-20 PL and a higher goal production in general then 0-10 < by home team <

also look at the early goal in individual leagues when away team opens the scoring 0-20 and still 0-1 with 20 elapsed

also look at 0-1 HT 1-0 HT 1-1 HT added to the early away goal / early home goal in individual leagues < I have already done that for you <

look at TEAM early goal data > I have for a number of leagues 2008-2015-2016

PM me when you have the data

[jonnyg]

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 6 minutes and the average goal production was 3.3 with 35% ending over 3.5 goals . 1/0.35 = 15/8 < if you remember on 6 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 8/11

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 20 minutes and the average goal production was 2.6 with 25% over 3.5 goals , 1/0.25 = 3/1 < if you remember on 20 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 11/10

in effect the betting industry have to price early goal games in play > you have your hand held device < they produce a price for over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals in an individual league and you match it up against the team data and the league data < if you see a massive difference in opinion then you would look to trade the goal markets but jumping in and out of the prices >>>>>>

[welshboy06]

There is not a single piece of data posted by you any where on this forum, copy and pasting text of results from past years and a few lines of conclusions is not data!

If you want to share some data fine your welcome to do so, if you just want to spam a forum with your blog material I'd suggest finding another forum

, posts are scarily similar to cassini.

It is the same guy. He got his username changed

[jonnyg]

There is not a single piece of data posted by you any where on this forum, copy and pasting text of results from past years and a few lines of conclusions is not data!

If you want to share some data fine your welcome to do so, if you just want to spam a forum with your blog material I'd suggest finding another forum

, posts are scarily similar to cassini.

It is the same guy. He got his username changed

who cares what the username is ?????

[jonnyg]

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 6 minutes and the average goal production was 3.3 with 35% ending over 3.5 goals . 1/0.35 = 15/8 < if you remember on 6 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 8/11

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 20 minutes and the average goal production was 2.6 with 25% over 3.5 goals , 1/0.25 = 3/1 < if you remember on 20 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 11/10

in effect the betting industry have to price early goal games in play > you have your hand held device < they produce a price for over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals in an individual league and you match it up against the team data and the league data < if you see a massive difference in opinion then you would look to trade the goal markets but jumping in and out of the prices >>>>>>

I am trying to find people with the same passion for football data and analysis > not proving to be an easy task