above is every game 1-0 Ht to home team in PL since 08-09 without consideration to the time of the opening goal and 17% ended draw
1/0.17 = 5.88 so nearly 5/1 > what you will see looking at simple game state > 1=0 HT around the globe to the home team without factoring the time of the opening goal is lowered expectation of the away team fighting back
remember Man city last away win when losing 1-0 HT was 1992
Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric
"The rule will work best on matches were the teams are fairly equal (no strong favourite) as the draw odds will move very similar no matter which team scores which makes tracking the score much easier. Also its more likely their will be an equalizer in this type of match than one where a strong pre-match fav has the lead. "
no evidence to suggest that is the case > what was the time of the opening goal ??? how does it effect expectation of the other team fighting back ???
no evidence to suggest that is the case > what was the time of the opening goal ??? how does it effect expectation of the other team fighting back ???
Arsenal at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring >
3-1 ( 8 minutes ) 2-0 ( 72 ) 2-0 ( 54) 1-0 ( 86 ) 3-0 ( 58 ) 2-0 ( 34 ) 2-1 ( 59 ) 2-0 ( 17 ) 1-0 ( 86 ) 3-1 ( 12 ) 1-1 ( 42 ) 3-2 ( 26 ) 3-0 ( 11 ) 3-4 ( 31 )
12-1-1 < Arsenal won 86% > not much point having a bot that lays Arsenal at home when they open the scoring .
Arsenal away in the PL last season when opening the scoring >
1-4 ( 42 ) 0-2 ( 60 ) 1-2 ( 42 ) 0-4 ( 37 ) 2-1 ( 5 ) 2-1 ( 20 ) 1-5 ( 24 ) 1-4 ( 19 ) 0-1 ( 90 ) 1-4 ( 17 ) 1-3 ( 9 )
9-0-2
total
21-1-3 < Arsenal won 84% 1/0.84 = 1/5
Bournemouth at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
2-1 ( 25 ) 4-0 ( 2) 2-0 ( 31 ) 3-3 ( 16 ) 1-3 ( 6 ) 1-0 ( 34 ) 1-2 ( 11 ) 6-1 ( 5 ) 1-0 ( 23 ) 1-0 ( 79 )
7-1-2
Bournemouth away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-1 ( 1 ) 0-1 ( 88 ) 2-2 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 5 ) 3-1 ( 3 ) 0-3 ( 25 ) 0-1 ( 26 ) 2-2 ( 31 ) 1-1 ( 11 )
3-4-2
total
10-5-4 < Bournemouth won 53% 1/0.53 = 10/11
Burnley at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-2 ( 23 ) 2-2 ( 56 ) 1-0 ( 58 ) 1-0 ( 87 ) 1-0 (78) 4-1 ( 31 ) 1-0 ( 80 ) 3-2 ( 13 ) 1-2 ( 14 ) 3-2 ( 2 ) 2-1 ( 39 ) 2-0 ( 38 ) 1-1 ( 72 ) 2-0 ( 2 )
10-2-2
Burnley away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-2 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 21 )
1-0-2
total
13-2-4 < Burnley won 68% > 1/0.68 = call it 1/2
Chelsea at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
4-3 ( 22 ) 3-0 ( 23 ) 4-2 ( 5 ) 2-1 ( 10 ) 1-2 ( 5 ) 3-1 ( 19 ) 3-1 ( 13 ) 2-0 ( 45 ) 4-2 ( 34 ) 3-0 ( 24 ) 1-0 ( 76 ) 5-0 ( 19 ) 4-0 ( 1 ) 3-0 ( 7 ) 3-0 ( 9 ) 2-1 ( 47 )
15-0-1
Chelsea away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-1 ( 82 ) 0-3 ( 66 ) 1-3 ( 17 ) 1-2 ( 13 ) 1-2 ( 25 ) 1-1 ( 7 ) 1-1 ( 24 ) 0-3 ( 6 ) 0-1 ( 43 ) 0-1 ( 40 ) 0-1 ( 41 ) 0-2 ( 6 ) 0-2 ( 61 ) 2-2 ( 18 )
11-3-0
total
26-3-1 < Chelsea won 87% 1/0.87 = 1.15
Everton at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-0 ( 56 ) 3-1 ( 49 ) 4-2 ( 1 ) 4-0 ( 9 ) 3-0 ( 39 ) 2-0 ( 40 ) 6-3 ( 1 ) 4-0 ( 34 ) 3-0 ( 73 ) 2-0 ( 50 ) 1-1 ( 35 ) 1-0 ( 51 ) 1-1 ( 5 )
11-2-0
Everton away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-1 ( 22 ) 0-1 ( 87 ) 0-2 ( 51 ) 3-2 ( 17 ) 1-1 ( 64 ) 0-3 ( 60 )
3-2-1
total
14-4-1
Everton won 74% = 4/11
Leicester at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
3-0 ( 38 ) 2-0 ( 69 ) 2-0 ( 25 ) 3-1 ( 28 ) 1-0 ( 20 ) 4-2 ( 3 ) 3-1 ( 42 ) 3-0 ( 45 ) 2-1 ( 32 )
9-0-0
Leicester away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-1 ( 43 ) 2-2 ( 6 ) 2-3 ( 5 )
2-1-0
total
11-1-0 < Leicester won 92% 1/0.92 = 1.09
Liverpool at home last season in the PL when opening the scoring
3-0 ( 45 ) 1-2 ( 24 ) 3-1 ( 8 ) 3-1 ( 9 ) 2-0 ( 16 ) 1-0 ( 8 ) 2-2 ( 5 ) 2-0 ( 75 ) 6-1 ( 27 ) 2-1 ( 20 ) 5-1 ( 17 ) 4-1 ( 13 )
10-1-1
Liverpool away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-4 ( 35 ) 0-1 ( 45 ) 0-1 ( 45 ) 1-1 ( 51 ) 1-1 ( 27 ) 2-2 ( 19 ) 0-1 ( 90 ) 0-3 ( 29 ) 4-3 ( 20 ) 2-4 ( 16 ) 1-2 ( 17 ) 1-1 ( 43 )
7-4-1
total
17-5-2 Liverpool won 71% 1/0,71 = 2/5
Man City at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
3-1 ( 27 ) 2-1 ( 29 ) 5-0 ( 2) 3-1 ( 31 ) 2-1 ( 11 ) 2-2 ( 49 ) 2-1 ( 58 ) 2-0 ( 33 ) 1-3 ( 45 ) 1-1 ( 43 ) 4-0 ( 15 ) 3-1 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 4 )
10-2-1
Man City away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-5 ( 5 ) 0-3 ( 55 ) 0-2 ( 5 ) 0-2 ( 42 ) 0-2 ( 29 ) 0-4 ( 17 ) 0-3 ( 72 ) 1-2 ( 39 ) 0-4 ( 19 ) 1-3 ( 9 ) 1-2 ( 15 ) 1-4 ( 27 )
12-0-0
22-2-1 > City won 88% 1/0.88 = 1.14
Man UTD at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
2-0 ( 15 ) 1-1 ( 49 ) 2-0 ( 7 ) 1-1 ( 23 ) 2-0 ( 32 ) 3-1 ( 39 ) 1-0 ( 29 ) 1-1 ( 68 ) 1-1 ( 69 ) 4-1 ( 22 ) 2-0 ( 36 )
7-4-0
Man UTD away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-2 ( 21 ) 0-3 ( 30 ) 1-3 ( 30 ) 0-3 ( 42 ) 0-2 ( 63 ) 0-2 ( 5 ) 1-2 ( 45 ) 1-1 ( 42 ) 1-3 ( 15 ) 0-1 ( 90 ) 1-3 ( 40 )
10-1-0
total
17-5-0
United won 85% 1/0.85 = 1.18
Hull at home least season in the PL when opening the scoring
2-0 ( 62 ) 2-1 ( 69 ) 1-1 ( 72 ) 2-0 ( 44 ) 2-2 ( 6 ) 3-3 ( 27 ) 2-1 ( 45 )
4-3-0
Hull away last season in the PL when opening the scoring
3-1 ( 14 ) 3-1 ( 21 ) 0-2 ( 79 )
1-0-2
5-3-2 < Hull won 50%
Boro at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
2-2 ( 38 ) 1-0 ( 8 ) 3-0 ( 18 ) 1-0 ( 60 ) 2-0 ( 39 ) 1-1 ( 11 )
4-2-0
Boro away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
4-2 ( 5 ) 2-1 ( 67 ) 2-2 ( 13 ) 1-1 ( 51 ) 3-1 ( 21 ) 1-2 ( 13 )
1-2-3
5-4-3 > Boro won 42% = 7/5
Sunderland at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-0 ( 49 ) 2-1 ( 64 ) 3-0 ( 34 ) 2-3 ( 39 )
3-0-1
Sunderland away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
5-1 ( 3 ) 0-2 ( 69 ) 0-4 ( 9 ) 1-1 ( 80 )
2-1-1
total
5-1-2 < Sunderland won 62.5% 1/0.625 = 1.6
3-1 ( 8 minutes ) 2-0 ( 72 ) 2-0 ( 54) 1-0 ( 86 ) 3-0 ( 58 ) 2-0 ( 34 ) 2-1 ( 59 ) 2-0 ( 17 ) 1-0 ( 86 ) 3-1 ( 12 ) 1-1 ( 42 ) 3-2 ( 26 ) 3-0 ( 11 ) 3-4 ( 31 )
12-1-1 < Arsenal won 86% > not much point having a bot that lays Arsenal at home when they open the scoring .
Arsenal away in the PL last season when opening the scoring >
1-4 ( 42 ) 0-2 ( 60 ) 1-2 ( 42 ) 0-4 ( 37 ) 2-1 ( 5 ) 2-1 ( 20 ) 1-5 ( 24 ) 1-4 ( 19 ) 0-1 ( 90 ) 1-4 ( 17 ) 1-3 ( 9 )
9-0-2
total
21-1-3 < Arsenal won 84% 1/0.84 = 1/5
Bournemouth at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
2-1 ( 25 ) 4-0 ( 2) 2-0 ( 31 ) 3-3 ( 16 ) 1-3 ( 6 ) 1-0 ( 34 ) 1-2 ( 11 ) 6-1 ( 5 ) 1-0 ( 23 ) 1-0 ( 79 )
7-1-2
Bournemouth away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-1 ( 1 ) 0-1 ( 88 ) 2-2 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 5 ) 3-1 ( 3 ) 0-3 ( 25 ) 0-1 ( 26 ) 2-2 ( 31 ) 1-1 ( 11 )
3-4-2
total
10-5-4 < Bournemouth won 53% 1/0.53 = 10/11
Burnley at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-2 ( 23 ) 2-2 ( 56 ) 1-0 ( 58 ) 1-0 ( 87 ) 1-0 (78) 4-1 ( 31 ) 1-0 ( 80 ) 3-2 ( 13 ) 1-2 ( 14 ) 3-2 ( 2 ) 2-1 ( 39 ) 2-0 ( 38 ) 1-1 ( 72 ) 2-0 ( 2 )
10-2-2
Burnley away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-2 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 21 )
1-0-2
total
13-2-4 < Burnley won 68% > 1/0.68 = call it 1/2
Chelsea at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
4-3 ( 22 ) 3-0 ( 23 ) 4-2 ( 5 ) 2-1 ( 10 ) 1-2 ( 5 ) 3-1 ( 19 ) 3-1 ( 13 ) 2-0 ( 45 ) 4-2 ( 34 ) 3-0 ( 24 ) 1-0 ( 76 ) 5-0 ( 19 ) 4-0 ( 1 ) 3-0 ( 7 ) 3-0 ( 9 ) 2-1 ( 47 )
15-0-1
Chelsea away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-1 ( 82 ) 0-3 ( 66 ) 1-3 ( 17 ) 1-2 ( 13 ) 1-2 ( 25 ) 1-1 ( 7 ) 1-1 ( 24 ) 0-3 ( 6 ) 0-1 ( 43 ) 0-1 ( 40 ) 0-1 ( 41 ) 0-2 ( 6 ) 0-2 ( 61 ) 2-2 ( 18 )
11-3-0
total
26-3-1 < Chelsea won 87% 1/0.87 = 1.15
Everton at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-0 ( 56 ) 3-1 ( 49 ) 4-2 ( 1 ) 4-0 ( 9 ) 3-0 ( 39 ) 2-0 ( 40 ) 6-3 ( 1 ) 4-0 ( 34 ) 3-0 ( 73 ) 2-0 ( 50 ) 1-1 ( 35 ) 1-0 ( 51 ) 1-1 ( 5 )
11-2-0
Everton away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-1 ( 22 ) 0-1 ( 87 ) 0-2 ( 51 ) 3-2 ( 17 ) 1-1 ( 64 ) 0-3 ( 60 )
3-2-1
total
14-4-1
Everton won 74% = 4/11
Leicester at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
3-0 ( 38 ) 2-0 ( 69 ) 2-0 ( 25 ) 3-1 ( 28 ) 1-0 ( 20 ) 4-2 ( 3 ) 3-1 ( 42 ) 3-0 ( 45 ) 2-1 ( 32 )
9-0-0
Leicester away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-1 ( 43 ) 2-2 ( 6 ) 2-3 ( 5 )
2-1-0
total
11-1-0 < Leicester won 92% 1/0.92 = 1.09
Liverpool at home last season in the PL when opening the scoring
3-0 ( 45 ) 1-2 ( 24 ) 3-1 ( 8 ) 3-1 ( 9 ) 2-0 ( 16 ) 1-0 ( 8 ) 2-2 ( 5 ) 2-0 ( 75 ) 6-1 ( 27 ) 2-1 ( 20 ) 5-1 ( 17 ) 4-1 ( 13 )
10-1-1
Liverpool away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-4 ( 35 ) 0-1 ( 45 ) 0-1 ( 45 ) 1-1 ( 51 ) 1-1 ( 27 ) 2-2 ( 19 ) 0-1 ( 90 ) 0-3 ( 29 ) 4-3 ( 20 ) 2-4 ( 16 ) 1-2 ( 17 ) 1-1 ( 43 )
7-4-1
total
17-5-2 Liverpool won 71% 1/0,71 = 2/5
Man City at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
3-1 ( 27 ) 2-1 ( 29 ) 5-0 ( 2) 3-1 ( 31 ) 2-1 ( 11 ) 2-2 ( 49 ) 2-1 ( 58 ) 2-0 ( 33 ) 1-3 ( 45 ) 1-1 ( 43 ) 4-0 ( 15 ) 3-1 ( 7 ) 2-1 ( 4 )
10-2-1
Man City away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-5 ( 5 ) 0-3 ( 55 ) 0-2 ( 5 ) 0-2 ( 42 ) 0-2 ( 29 ) 0-4 ( 17 ) 0-3 ( 72 ) 1-2 ( 39 ) 0-4 ( 19 ) 1-3 ( 9 ) 1-2 ( 15 ) 1-4 ( 27 )
12-0-0
22-2-1 > City won 88% 1/0.88 = 1.14
Man UTD at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
2-0 ( 15 ) 1-1 ( 49 ) 2-0 ( 7 ) 1-1 ( 23 ) 2-0 ( 32 ) 3-1 ( 39 ) 1-0 ( 29 ) 1-1 ( 68 ) 1-1 ( 69 ) 4-1 ( 22 ) 2-0 ( 36 )
7-4-0
Man UTD away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
0-2 ( 21 ) 0-3 ( 30 ) 1-3 ( 30 ) 0-3 ( 42 ) 0-2 ( 63 ) 0-2 ( 5 ) 1-2 ( 45 ) 1-1 ( 42 ) 1-3 ( 15 ) 0-1 ( 90 ) 1-3 ( 40 )
10-1-0
total
17-5-0
United won 85% 1/0.85 = 1.18
Hull at home least season in the PL when opening the scoring
2-0 ( 62 ) 2-1 ( 69 ) 1-1 ( 72 ) 2-0 ( 44 ) 2-2 ( 6 ) 3-3 ( 27 ) 2-1 ( 45 )
4-3-0
Hull away last season in the PL when opening the scoring
3-1 ( 14 ) 3-1 ( 21 ) 0-2 ( 79 )
1-0-2
5-3-2 < Hull won 50%
Boro at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
2-2 ( 38 ) 1-0 ( 8 ) 3-0 ( 18 ) 1-0 ( 60 ) 2-0 ( 39 ) 1-1 ( 11 )
4-2-0
Boro away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
4-2 ( 5 ) 2-1 ( 67 ) 2-2 ( 13 ) 1-1 ( 51 ) 3-1 ( 21 ) 1-2 ( 13 )
1-2-3
5-4-3 > Boro won 42% = 7/5
Sunderland at home in the PL last season when opening the scoring
1-0 ( 49 ) 2-1 ( 64 ) 3-0 ( 34 ) 2-3 ( 39 )
3-0-1
Sunderland away in the PL last season when opening the scoring
5-1 ( 3 ) 0-2 ( 69 ) 0-4 ( 9 ) 1-1 ( 80 )
2-1-1
total
5-1-2 < Sunderland won 62.5% 1/0.625 = 1.6
Last edited by jonnyg on Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:03 pm, edited 13 times in total.
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/ ... worst-lead
I see > you did not read that correctly >
Teams with a one-goal advantage are far less likely to win. Of the 5,721 sides that have been one goal ahead during the Premier League era, only 2,987 won the game, 1,747 drew and 987 lost.
does not mean they opened the scoring because they could be winning 2-1 and concede the opening goal and draw etc
this is a key point > the ability to understand data in the way it is presented > this article re 52% has nothing to do with the opening goal > HTH
I can add some irony < a sky sports article < It was Martyn Tyler of Sky sports who has spent many years advising that a 2-0 lead is precarious > what I did over many years is looked at the early goal and 2-0 pathway to confirm that a 2-0 lead is not precarious re individual leagues and published the data >
I see > you did not read that correctly >
Teams with a one-goal advantage are far less likely to win. Of the 5,721 sides that have been one goal ahead during the Premier League era, only 2,987 won the game, 1,747 drew and 987 lost.
does not mean they opened the scoring because they could be winning 2-1 and concede the opening goal and draw etc
this is a key point > the ability to understand data in the way it is presented > this article re 52% has nothing to do with the opening goal > HTH
I can add some irony < a sky sports article < It was Martyn Tyler of Sky sports who has spent many years advising that a 2-0 lead is precarious > what I did over many years is looked at the early goal and 2-0 pathway to confirm that a 2-0 lead is not precarious re individual leagues and published the data >
so far on this thread we have had
Back the Draw if a Team has a 1 Goal Lead at Half Time with specific parameters and lay a team when they open the scoring >
both scenarios need to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the game state < in an individual league < to have an understanding of the expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >
Back the Draw if a Team has a 1 Goal Lead at Half Time with specific parameters and lay a team when they open the scoring >
both scenarios need to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the game state < in an individual league < to have an understanding of the expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >
"Across the last seven full seasons in the Premier League, the team that scored the first goal won the match 69% of the time"
rather higher then 52.2%
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/bettin
of the time"rather higher then 52.2%
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/bettin
This may interest a few people > 0-1 HT data added to the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band Premier league 2008-2009 to 2016-2017
0-1 HT % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%
0-1 HT Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%
0-1 HT Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%
0-1 HT Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%
and 2016-2017 in games 0-1 HT goal 0-20 PL >
1-1 0-2 2-2 2-1 2-2 0-3 1-4 2-1 0-2 2-1 0-2 1-4 0-1 1-4 2-2 1-1 1-1
0-1 HT % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%
0-1 HT Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%
0-1 HT Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%
0-1 HT Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%
and 2016-2017 in games 0-1 HT goal 0-20 PL >
1-1 0-2 2-2 2-1 2-2 0-3 1-4 2-1 0-2 2-1 0-2 1-4 0-1 1-4 2-2 1-1 1-1
This is how I see things after looking at football data for 10 hours a day over the last 5 years < we are seeing betting bots produced to apply strategy without understanding the effect that the time of the opening goal has on
1. accuracy
2, expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >
in an individual league
my tech skills are very weak which I am seeing as a positive as I have manually collated all the data that interests me
1. accuracy
2, expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >
in an individual league
my tech skills are very weak which I am seeing as a positive as I have manually collated all the data that interests me
Premier league in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 21- 30 minutes time band and 0-1 HT game state
last 55
6-13-36 < dont back the home team
0-3 0-1 1-1 1-3 1-2 0-2
and
T HT T+1 FT
Bourne Watford 24 0 1 H48 2 2 at 1-1 Bournemouth were offered at 6/4
Man UTD Liverpool 27 0 1 H84 1 1
WBA Hull 21 0 1 H49 3 1
Watford Palace 26 0 1 H71 1 1
Boro Liverpool 29 0 1 A60 0 3
WHU Arsenal 24 0 1 A72 1 5
Watford Stoke 29 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 24 0 1 H51 3 2
Stoke Bourne 26 0 1 0 1
Man City Southampton 27 0 1 H55 1 1
Hull Stoke 26 0 1 A50 0 2
Stoke WHU 23 0 1 H55 2 1
Palace Stoke 26 0 1 H47 2 1
WBA Watford 27 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Bourne. 28 0 1 A70 1 3
Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
Villa Leicester 28 0 1 H75 1 1
Palace Chelsea 29 0 1 A60 0 3
Bourne. Newcastle 27 0 1 0 1
Norwich Leicester 28 0 1 A47 1 2
Villa Man UTD 29 0 1 0 1
Everton Spurs 24 0 1 0 1
QPR Newcastle 24 0 1 H54 2 1
Spurs Man City 29 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Spurs 30 0 1 H46 1 3
Stoke Southampton 22 0 1 H47 2 1
WHU Chelsea 22 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 22 0 1 A62 2 2
Man City Arsenal 24 0 1 A67 0 2
Villa Liverpool 24 0 1 A79 0 2
Sunderland Arsenal 30 0 1 A90 0 2
Arsenal Man City 28 0 1 H63 2 2
Man UTD Swansea 28 0 1 H53 1 2
Fulham Palace 28 0 1 H61 2 2
WBA Stoke 22 0 1 H56 1 2
Man UTD Sunderland 30 0 1 0 1
Everton Palace 23 0 1 A49 2 3
Newcastle Everton 22 0 1 A52 0 3
WBA Fulham 28 0 1 H86 1 1
WBA Liverpool 24 0 1 H67 1 1
Everton Sunderland 25 0 1 0 1
WBA Hull 28 0 1 H88 1 1
Cardiff Arsenal 29 0 1 A86 0 3
Norwich Villa 30 0 1 0 1
WBA Swansea 22 0 1 A83 0 2
Villa Liverpool 21 0 1 0 1
Swansea Fulham 22 0 1 A78 0 3
Liverpool Chelsea 26 0 1 H52 2 2
Newcastle Sunderland 27 0 1 A74 0 3
last 55
6-13-36 < dont back the home team
0-3 0-1 1-1 1-3 1-2 0-2
and
T HT T+1 FT
Bourne Watford 24 0 1 H48 2 2 at 1-1 Bournemouth were offered at 6/4
Man UTD Liverpool 27 0 1 H84 1 1
WBA Hull 21 0 1 H49 3 1
Watford Palace 26 0 1 H71 1 1
Boro Liverpool 29 0 1 A60 0 3
WHU Arsenal 24 0 1 A72 1 5
Watford Stoke 29 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 24 0 1 H51 3 2
Stoke Bourne 26 0 1 0 1
Man City Southampton 27 0 1 H55 1 1
Hull Stoke 26 0 1 A50 0 2
Stoke WHU 23 0 1 H55 2 1
Palace Stoke 26 0 1 H47 2 1
WBA Watford 27 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Bourne. 28 0 1 A70 1 3
Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
Villa Leicester 28 0 1 H75 1 1
Palace Chelsea 29 0 1 A60 0 3
Bourne. Newcastle 27 0 1 0 1
Norwich Leicester 28 0 1 A47 1 2
Villa Man UTD 29 0 1 0 1
Everton Spurs 24 0 1 0 1
QPR Newcastle 24 0 1 H54 2 1
Spurs Man City 29 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Spurs 30 0 1 H46 1 3
Stoke Southampton 22 0 1 H47 2 1
WHU Chelsea 22 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 22 0 1 A62 2 2
Man City Arsenal 24 0 1 A67 0 2
Villa Liverpool 24 0 1 A79 0 2
Sunderland Arsenal 30 0 1 A90 0 2
Arsenal Man City 28 0 1 H63 2 2
Man UTD Swansea 28 0 1 H53 1 2
Fulham Palace 28 0 1 H61 2 2
WBA Stoke 22 0 1 H56 1 2
Man UTD Sunderland 30 0 1 0 1
Everton Palace 23 0 1 A49 2 3
Newcastle Everton 22 0 1 A52 0 3
WBA Fulham 28 0 1 H86 1 1
WBA Liverpool 24 0 1 H67 1 1
Everton Sunderland 25 0 1 0 1
WBA Hull 28 0 1 H88 1 1
Cardiff Arsenal 29 0 1 A86 0 3
Norwich Villa 30 0 1 0 1
WBA Swansea 22 0 1 A83 0 2
Villa Liverpool 21 0 1 0 1
Swansea Fulham 22 0 1 A78 0 3
Liverpool Chelsea 26 0 1 H52 2 2
Newcastle Sunderland 27 0 1 A74 0 3
Last edited by jonnyg on Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
you may be wondering why the mainstream are not looking at the time of the opening goal and I think I have the answer based around loads of DM's across social media asking me where I get my data from >
put it this way if you had the inclination could you scape the time of the opening goal from a data source ????
put it this way if you had the inclination could you scape the time of the opening goal from a data source ????
Are you able to capitalise on your knowledge jonnyg?jonnyg wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:36 pmThis is how I see things after looking at football data for 10 hours a day over the last 5 years < we are seeing betting bots produced to apply strategy without understanding the effect that the time of the opening goal has on
1. accuracy
2, expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >
in an individual league
my tech skills are very weak which I am seeing as a positive as I have manually collated all the data that interests me
Is your Betfair trading lucrative?
Betfair banned me a number of years ago ! Long storyRinoa wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:34 pmAre you able to capitalise on your knowledge jonnyg?jonnyg wrote: ↑Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:36 pmThis is how I see things after looking at football data for 10 hours a day over the last 5 years < we are seeing betting bots produced to apply strategy without understanding the effect that the time of the opening goal has on
1. accuracy
2, expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >
in an individual league
my tech skills are very weak which I am seeing as a positive as I have manually collated all the data that interests me
Is your Betfair trading lucrative?
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0 - 2
21' S. Ruprecht
0 - 3
89
' P. Funk0 - 4
90' S. Andrist
Unterhaching
3 - 2
Karlsruher SC View events More info
0 - 1
13' A. Fink (PG)
S. Hain (PG) 24'
1 - 1
1 - 2
38' D. Pisot
S. Bigalke 39'
2 - 2
S. Schimmer 89'
3 - 2
Austria Lustenau
0 - 2
Ried View events More info
0 - 1
19' Í. Durmuş
0 - 2
81' T. Fröschl
Hartberg
3 - 1
Floridsdorfer AC View events More info
M. Fischer 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
49' O. Markoutz
S. Meusburger 85'
2 - 1
D. Tadic 89'
3 - 1
Tours
0 - 3
Le Havre View events More info
0 - 1
9' E. Assifuah
0 - 2
50' B. Bese
0 - 3
90' J. Fontaine
Orléans
3 - 1
Nancy View events More info
A. Guie Gneki 8'
1 - 0
1 - 1
19' P. Eler
A. Gomis 76'
2 - 1
O. Cissokho 89'
3 - 1
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