Premier League in games where the away team opened the scoring on 1 minute since 2009-2010 , average goal production is 4.13
2 minutes = 3.6
3 minutes = 3.4
4 minutes = 4.1
5 minutes = 3.94
6 minutes = 3.43
7 minutes = 3.17
8 minutes = 3.15
9 minutes = 3.4
10 minutes = 3.96
11 minutes = 3.96
12 minutes 3.79
13 minutes = 3.29
14 minutes = 3.31
15 minutes = 3.44
16 minutes = 3.67
17 minutes = 3.56
18 minutes = 4.36
19 minutes = 3.52
20 minutes = 3.125
Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric
Premier League since 2014-2015 where the home team opened the scoring in the 1st minute , the average goal production is 4.36
2 minutes = 3.70 < correction > and after arsenal game = 3.93
3 minutes = 3.78
4 minutes = 4.09
5 minutes = 3.93
6 minutes = 3.5
7 minutes = 2.85
8 minutes = 3.5
9 minutes = 2.94
10 minutes = 3.54
2 minutes = 3.70 < correction > and after arsenal game = 3.93
3 minutes = 3.78
4 minutes = 4.09
5 minutes = 3.93
6 minutes = 3.5
7 minutes = 2.85
8 minutes = 3.5
9 minutes = 2.94
10 minutes = 3.54
Last edited by jonnyg on Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
How much interest has there been in the time of the opening goal in an individual league over the last 5 years via the mainstream ????
well one blog via the Racing Post advising that the opening goal in the Premier League on 1 minute did not produce a " landslide " of goals >
there are 2 problems with the early goal < people cannot work out how to scrape early goal data / and the depth of analytical skills re the average football data and analyst is not strong enough > as a result I would suggest that football data and analytics is way behind where it should be >
well one blog via the Racing Post advising that the opening goal in the Premier League on 1 minute did not produce a " landslide " of goals >
there are 2 problems with the early goal < people cannot work out how to scrape early goal data / and the depth of analytical skills re the average football data and analyst is not strong enough > as a result I would suggest that football data and analytics is way behind where it should be >
0-0 on 79 Minutes Premier League Table 2008-2009-2015-2016
I have added in the table below all the games since 2008-2009-2-15-2016 in the Premier League played by teams at HOME that were in the Premier League 2015-2016 season where the score on 79 minutes was 0-0.
Played W% D% L% Over 0.5 %
Arsenal 28 29 64 7 43
Villa 30 13 67 20 33
Bournemouth 1 0 100 0 0
Chelsea 12 25 67 8 33
Palace 7 0 71 29 29
Everton 13 31 69 0 31
Leicester 6 17 83 0 33
Liverpool 15 13 80 7 20
Man City 9 22 44 34 56
Man UTD 13 31 46 23 54
Newcastle 17 35 47 18 53
Norwich 10 10 90 0 10
Southampton 7 14 72 14 43
Stoke 20 20 70 10 35
Sunderland 24 17 75 8 29
Swansea 13 15 70 15 31
Spurs 21 14 72 14 29
WBA 13 23 54 23 46
Watford 4 0 100 0 0
WHU 14 14 72 14 29
I have added in the table below all the games since 2008-2009-2-15-2016 in the Premier League played by teams at HOME that were in the Premier League 2015-2016 season where the score on 79 minutes was 0-0.
Played W% D% L% Over 0.5 %
Arsenal 28 29 64 7 43
Villa 30 13 67 20 33
Bournemouth 1 0 100 0 0
Chelsea 12 25 67 8 33
Palace 7 0 71 29 29
Everton 13 31 69 0 31
Leicester 6 17 83 0 33
Liverpool 15 13 80 7 20
Man City 9 22 44 34 56
Man UTD 13 31 46 23 54
Newcastle 17 35 47 18 53
Norwich 10 10 90 0 10
Southampton 7 14 72 14 43
Stoke 20 20 70 10 35
Sunderland 24 17 75 8 29
Swansea 13 15 70 15 31
Spurs 21 14 72 14 29
WBA 13 23 54 23 46
Watford 4 0 100 0 0
WHU 14 14 72 14 29
In 2012-2013 the average home shot on target production was 2.88 and for the away team it was 3.34 in games that ended 0-0 at full time in the PL and the average shot on target production for the home team in games that ended 0-0 2013-2014 season was 3.52 and for the away team it was 3.15.
to be helpful to dallas I am seeing a common theme > looking at odds before a game started and applying an automated strategy <
in terms of expectation of goal production in a game of football as time decays when at 0-0 game state < the odds that teams were before the game started is fairly irrelevant <
what I can advise is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to any other variables that may impede / accelerate goal production <
in terms of expectation of goal production in a game of football as time decays when at 0-0 game state < the odds that teams were before the game started is fairly irrelevant <
what I can advise is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to any other variables that may impede / accelerate goal production <
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away -1 158.1666667 15.2884507 0 1 1 3 1 6 1 12 0.083333333 0 0.5943098 0.5943098 1.782929399 0.5943098 3.565858799 0.5943098 7.131717597
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away -2 191.2166667 18.48307638 0 2 3 3 2 8 2 18 0.111111111 0 0.983177896 1.474766844 1.474766844 0.983177896 3.932711584 0.983177896 8.848601063
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away -3 18 1.739886907 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.222222222 0 5.222222222
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away -4 23.5 2.271519018 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 4 8 0 16
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 0.+ 93.11666667 9.000692733 1 1 0 3 1 3 2 9 0.222222222 1.009486308 1.009486308 0 3.028458923 1.009486308 3.028458923 2.018972615 9.085376768
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 0 278 26.87158668 0 2 4 5 1 16 2 28 0.071428571 0 0.676258993 1.352517986 1.690647482 0.338129496 5.410071942 0.676258993 9.467625899
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 1 222.0333333 21.4618272 1 1 2 3 3 10 2 20 0.1 0.423359856 0.423359856 0.846719712 1.270079568 1.270079568 4.233598559 0.846719712 8.467197118
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 2 43.6 4.214392731 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 2.155963303 2.155963303 2.155963303 0 0 6.467889908
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 3 6.916666667 0.668567654 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away All 1034.55 100 2 7 11 19 10 46 9 95 0.094736842 0.181721521 0.636025325 0.999468368 1.726354454 0.908607607 4.179594993 0.817746846 8.631772268
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home -1 89.65 9.552986307 0 0 2 4 2 3 0 11 0 0 0 2.09704406 4.19408812 2.09704406 3.14556609 0 11.53374233
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home -2 84.5 9.004209068 0 0 1 2 5 1 0 9 0 0 0 1.112426036 2.224852071 5.562130178 1.112426036 0 10.01183432
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home -3 4.95 0.527465502 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 18.98989899 0 0 0 18.98989899
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 0.+ 98.01666667 10.44452732 1 2 2 4 2 3 3 14 0.214285714 0.959020575 1.918041149 1.918041149 3.836082299 1.918041149 2.877061724 2.877061724 13.42628805
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 0 322.8333333 34.40069618 0 4 5 7 8 12 4 36 0.111111111 0 1.164687661 1.455859577 2.038203407 2.329375323 3.494062984 1.164687661 10.48218895
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 1 232.8666667 24.81396629 0 0 3 1 5 10 0 19 0 0 0 1.210993415 0.403664472 2.018322359 4.036644718 0 7.669624964
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 2 64.53333333 6.87658728 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 8 0 0 0 2.913223141 1.45661157 2.913223141 4.369834711 0 11.65289256
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 3 30.53333333 3.253591916 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 3.07860262 0 3.07860262 3.07860262 0 9.23580786
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 4 5.15 0.548777239 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 18.25242718 0 0 18.25242718
this is what the big boys are looking at < Bournemouth being the example < the expected goal totals at each game state <
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away -2 191.2166667 18.48307638 0 2 3 3 2 8 2 18 0.111111111 0 0.983177896 1.474766844 1.474766844 0.983177896 3.932711584 0.983177896 8.848601063
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away -3 18 1.739886907 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.222222222 0 5.222222222
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away -4 23.5 2.271519018 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 4 8 0 16
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 0.+ 93.11666667 9.000692733 1 1 0 3 1 3 2 9 0.222222222 1.009486308 1.009486308 0 3.028458923 1.009486308 3.028458923 2.018972615 9.085376768
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 0 278 26.87158668 0 2 4 5 1 16 2 28 0.071428571 0 0.676258993 1.352517986 1.690647482 0.338129496 5.410071942 0.676258993 9.467625899
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 1 222.0333333 21.4618272 1 1 2 3 3 10 2 20 0.1 0.423359856 0.423359856 0.846719712 1.270079568 1.270079568 4.233598559 0.846719712 8.467197118
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 2 43.6 4.214392731 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 2.155963303 2.155963303 2.155963303 0 0 6.467889908
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away 3 6.916666667 0.668567654 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth away All 1034.55 100 2 7 11 19 10 46 9 95 0.094736842 0.181721521 0.636025325 0.999468368 1.726354454 0.908607607 4.179594993 0.817746846 8.631772268
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home -1 89.65 9.552986307 0 0 2 4 2 3 0 11 0 0 0 2.09704406 4.19408812 2.09704406 3.14556609 0 11.53374233
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home -2 84.5 9.004209068 0 0 1 2 5 1 0 9 0 0 0 1.112426036 2.224852071 5.562130178 1.112426036 0 10.01183432
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home -3 4.95 0.527465502 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 18.98989899 0 0 0 18.98989899
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 0.+ 98.01666667 10.44452732 1 2 2 4 2 3 3 14 0.214285714 0.959020575 1.918041149 1.918041149 3.836082299 1.918041149 2.877061724 2.877061724 13.42628805
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 0 322.8333333 34.40069618 0 4 5 7 8 12 4 36 0.111111111 0 1.164687661 1.455859577 2.038203407 2.329375323 3.494062984 1.164687661 10.48218895
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 1 232.8666667 24.81396629 0 0 3 1 5 10 0 19 0 0 0 1.210993415 0.403664472 2.018322359 4.036644718 0 7.669624964
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 2 64.53333333 6.87658728 0 0 2 1 2 3 0 8 0 0 0 2.913223141 1.45661157 2.913223141 4.369834711 0 11.65289256
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 3 30.53333333 3.253591916 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 3.07860262 0 3.07860262 3.07860262 0 9.23580786
2016/17 AFC Bournemouth home 4 5.15 0.548777239 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 18.25242718 0 0 18.25242718
this is what the big boys are looking at < Bournemouth being the example < the expected goal totals at each game state <