The Impact of the Early Goal Metric and Game State in Ligue 2

[jonnyg]

2015-2016 season in Ligue 2 in games where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band, 59% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 42%

The home teams won 25.4%, 32.2% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 42.4%

46% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

8/59 0-1 FT

36/59 > 1-1 15-16-5 <> away team won 14%

15/59 > 0-2 0-3-12 <> away team won 80%

2016-2017 season in Ligue 2 in games where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band,

68% over 2.5 goals and 50% over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 68%

39% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

3/56 0-1 FT

33/56 > 1-1 11-13-9 > away teams won 27%

20/56 > 0-2 1-2-17 > away teams won 85%

12-15-29 > away teams won 52%

Last 115 games in Ligue 2 where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band
GAME PATHWAY

11/115 0-1 FT

69/115 > 1-1 26-29-14 > away teams won 20% > note the monster in play edge at 1-1 in this profile in Ligue 2 = lowered expectation of an away win >

35/115 > 0-2 1-5-29 > away teams won 83%

27-34-54 > away teams won 47% 1/0.47 = 11/10


Ligue 2 2015-2016 season in games where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 62% ended over 2.5 goals

Both teams scored in 67% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 55%

The home teams won 71.4%, 21.4% ended a draw and the away teams won 7.2% < low expectation of the away teams winning .

45% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

4/42 1-0 FT

21/42 > 2-0 <> 20-1-0 home team won 95%

17/42 > 1-1 <> 6-8-3 home teams won 35%

Ligue 2 2016-2017 season in games where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 68% ended over 2.5 goals

Both Teams scored in 61% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 61%

39% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

29-6-6 < home teams won 71% < lowered expectation of the away team fighting back = survival analysis < as a result in this profile in ligue 2 < lowered expectation of a draw which you can exploit in play > with the caveat that 1-0 HT to the home team in ligue 2 added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and you will see some draw bias <

GAME PATHWAY

5/41 1-0 FT

22/41 > 2-0 22-0-0 home teams won 100%

14/41 > 1-1 2-6-6 home teams won 14%

Last 83 games in Ligue 2 where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band

9/83 1-0 FT

43/83 > 2-0 42-1-0 home teams won 98% > is a 2-0 lead precarious Mr Tyler ?

31/83 > 1-1 8-14-9 home teams won 26%

59-15-9 home teams won 71% 1/0.71 = 2/5

“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”

in terms of survival analysis and football > do not take a blanket approach > in ligue 2 in games where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band > 2-0 pathway will be more likely then > 1-1 hence the lowered expectation of the away team fighting back


Last 49 games in Ligue 2 where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT ;

29% ended over 2.5 goals

6-21-22 > the away teams won 45% < some expectation of the home team fighting back in the 2nd half > the away teams won the 2nd half in only 18%

In this profile in Ligue 2 at Half Time you should be looking to backing the home team on the asian handicap = betting on the outcome of the 2nd half .

GAME PATHWAY

11/49 0-1 FT

27/49 > 1-1 6-19-2 away teams won 7%

11/49 > 0-2 0-2-9 away teams won 82%


Ligue 2 in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 half time game state ;

last 45 >

20-18-7 < away teams won only 16% , 11/45 ended 1-1 FT = 24% , 49% over 3.5 goals


Ligue 2 in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 Half Time Game State

last 98 >

68-24-6 < home teams won 69% < the monster in play edge in this profile in ligue 2 is lowered expectation of the HOME team winning the 2nd half = betting on the outcome of the 2nd half > the home teams won the 2nd half in only 23/98

> 23% < call that 7/2 < the reason is that the events of the first half in this profile in Ligue 2 will result in lowered expectation of accuracy BY the HOME TEAM < hence lowered expectation of goal(s) production in the 2nd half BY THE HOME TEAM even if the home team are the perceived stronger <

37% ended over 2.5 goals , 1/0.37 = 7/4

THE HOME TEAMS FAILED TO SCORE IN THE 2ND HALF IN 55/98 = 56%