In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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jonnyg
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I have been asked by a number of forumites to offer in play analysis < which I am happy to do < I go to football on Saturday but I am available on other days >

All the data will be mine unless otherwise stated > I will develop strategies for you to expand on etc <

I have very strong analytical skills and you should find this thread of interest <

I hope the data is not deleted ( in play ) but I cannot control that aspect <

feel free to ask any questions :!:
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jonnyg
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Bolton Wanderers
1 - 2
Derby County View events More info
0 - 1
8' D. Nugent
0 - 2
21' D. Nugent
G. Madine 90'
1 - 2

a taster re strategy < at HT Bolton were offered at 6/5 to score > :idea:

Derby away in the Championship when opening the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 with 20 minutes elapsed

Posted on: August 5th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
last 23

2-8-13 > Derby won 56.5%

57% over 2.5 goals and 30% over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 74%

GAME PATHWAY

2/23 0-1 FT

12/23 > 1-1 2-8-2

9/23 > 0-2 0-0-9

35% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

Sunderland
1 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
11′ B. Johnson
L. Grabban (PG) 42′
1 – 1

Birmingham City
1 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
3′ T. Kuszczak (OG)
Che Adams 68′
1 – 1
1 – 2
90′ T. Ince

Wigan Athletic
0 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
16′ B. Johnson

Hull City
0 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
7′ J. Russell
0 – 2
36′ A. Robertson (OG)

Leeds United
2 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
13′ J. Hendrick
S. Bamba 42′
1 – 1
C. Wood 71′
2 – 1
2 – 2
78′ T. Ince

Hull City
0 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
18′ J. Butterfield
0 – 2
34′ J. Butterfield

Huddersfield Town
1 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
15′ C. Martin
H. Bunn 31′
1 – 1
1 – 2
48′ G. Thorne

Huddersfield Town
4 – 4
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
16′ T. Ince
O. Gobern 38′
1 – 1
M. Hudson 41′
2 – 1
R. James 45′
3 – 1
3 – 2
52′ S. Dawkins
3 – 3
61′ J. Lingard
N. Wells 72′
4 – 3
4 – 4
79′ T. Ince

Birmingham City
0 – 4
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
9′ J. Ibe
0 – 2
23′ C. Martin
0 – 3
77′ C. Forsyth
0 – 4
89′ J. Russell

Reading
0 – 3
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
18′ C. Martin
0 – 2
38′ J. Ibe
0 – 3
79′ C. Martin

Leeds United
1 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
6′ S. Dawkins
M. Smith 50′
1 – 1

Ipswich Town
2 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
1′ P. Bamford
J. Williams 68′
1 – 1
C. Berra 90′
2 – 1

Barnsley
1 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
8′ C. Martin
0 – 2
49′ C. Martin
T. Cywka 62′
1 – 2

Millwall
1 – 5
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
9′ J. Buxton
0 – 2
45′ C. Bryson
0 – 3
57′ C. Bryson
M. Waghorn 75′
1 – 3
1 – 4
81′ C. Bryson
1 – 5
87′ M. Bennett

Bristol City
1 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
20′ C. Bryson
B. Pitman 74′
1 – 1

Doncaster Rovers
1 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
13′ T. Robinson
0 – 2
55′ G. Roberts
E. Diouf 66′
1 – 2

Crystal Palace
2 – 2
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
7′ S. Pearson
D. Moxey 21′
1 – 1
1 – 2
70′ J. Ward
D. Ambrose (PG) 88′
2 – 2

Burnley
2 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
19′ L. Moore
T. Mears 82′
1 – 1
J. Cork 90′
2 – 1

Doncaster Rovers
2 – 3
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
19′ L. Moore
0 – 2
59′ K. Commons
D. Shiels 66′
1 – 2
D. Shiels 68′
2 – 2
2 – 3
72′ K. Commons

Barnsley
1 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
14′ D. Leacock
A. Hammill 47′
1 – 1

Coventry City
0 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
20′ S. Barker

Sheffield United
1 – 1
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
17′ R. Savage
L. Williamson 90′
1 – 1

Nottingham Forest
1 – 3
Derby County View events More info
0 – 1
5′ L. Nyatanga
0 – 2
47′ R. Hulse
0 – 3
67′ S. Davies (PG)
R. Earnshaw 87′
1 – 3
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jonnyg
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my focus over the last few years is how the time of the opening goal effects the rest of the game :idea:
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jonnyg
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2 early home goal games in Portugal segunda to keep an eye on <

the strategy i developed for Ht 1-0 to home team in Segunda with goal in 0-10 minutes time band >

Trading strategy that you should adopt in this profile of game in Portugal Segunda is to back against ( lay ) the correct score 1-1 and if there is a fight back goal ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 time band then it is likely that the game will have further goal(s) production so in the games that are still 1-0 on 69 minutes , simply trade out of your position on the 1-1 correct score by backing 1-1 to cancel your original exposure.

very sophisticated = survival analysis > because > 2-0 in this profile in segunda will be more likely and if > 1-1 46-70 then some expectation that will not end 1-1 FT
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jonnyg
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an area which very few people have looked at is a follows >

1-0 HT 0-1 HT added to the home / away fightback in the 2nd half in the 46-70 minute time band = survival analysis > in terms of the effect on accuracy for the rest of the game given the half time game state and the fightback metric < in individual leagues >
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jonnyg
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benfica b game 1-0 ht goal 10 minutes

2nd goal benfica = 20/21

no 2nd goal = 11/4

varzim 2nd goal = 15/8

what i can advise re 46-70 is that far more likely to go 2-0 pathway then > 1-1

if does > 1-1 in 46-70 minute time band then you will see much higher expectation of > over 2.5 goals then the betting industry will assume <



at HT 1-1 is FT is offered at 7-7.6

I treat football as if it is a game of chess < in play < map out the expected pathway and look to react to the events that occur in play < :idea:

at HT over 2.5 is offered at 11/10 and the price should be around Evens < via looking at a sample of 1-0 HT goal 0-10 in segunda >

naturally if you do back over 2.5 in this game at HT and goes > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 time band then you will have a massive value bet with around 70% expectation + of further goals < via 1-0 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band data in Segunda > Portugal <
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jonnyg
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the one thing I have learnt via social media re football data and analytics > you have loads of small groups sharing their own thoughts > never been an interest < I have wanted to share all my analysis on a public forum > I first started looking at the early goal 5 years ago > and no interest < in recent months I have noticed a landslide of people saying they have been looking at the effect of the early goal for years > :roll:
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jonnyg
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http://www.nextbet.co.uk/away-goals/

this site will provide early away goal games as they arrive which is useful >
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jonnyg
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while you are looking at the game in Portugal <consider that since 2003-2004 Arsenal at home when conceding the opening goal 0-20 at home have scored in 100%

my point is why cant some tech person provide the data without me having to cut and paste all my data :idea:

my rationale for coming on this forum < was the mistaken belief that a load of techies would be available to automate my data and analysis > thus far < ZIP :shock:
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jonnyg
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at 1-1


over 2.5 = 3/10 <

and over 3.5 = 6/4

I can be specific > we should see 75% + expectation of a further goal > 1/3


if you backed over 2.5 goals at HT < you are in the box seat < you could look at trading out at some stage to look a profit <
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jonnyg
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this is quite simple <

In Benfica B game we have had

early home goal

1-0 HT game state

the away fightback metric as defined above <

all you need to do is look at individual leagues and the effect :idea:

this is not rocket science < but incredibly very few people are looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal and the effect of game state = current score in an individual league :!:
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jonnyg
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I am happy to answer questions < please no trolling < :o
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Euler
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I don't know why you aren't getting the message, but very few people on the forum are interested in this and the way you are presenting it.

We all have our own models that are very effective and produce the required stats without looking at matches from years ago, that's the way it is done professionally. If you want to do your way, then that's great, but I suggest you use this information in the market to produce a payoff for yourself. Or perhaps rather than posting so frequently and at such length, you just put up a recommendation on a match and leave it at that. If the results are good then people will pay attention.

It's a real turn off to see a thread getting battered to death by you talking to yourself. I sense you think by putting up even more posts, people will read it. But the reality is the opposite is happening. I think it's time to leave it there.
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jonnyg
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2-1< look above > very strong in play analysis > I can cover a number of leagues to a high level in play >
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jonnyg
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Benfica b game yielded 2 winners > over 2.5 and lay of 1-1 > will give a full summary later .
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