In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

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jonnyg
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Portugal Segunda 1-0 HT with the opening goal in 11-HT time band

2-1 3-0 2-1 3-0 1-1 2-0 4-1 2-2 3-0 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 2-3 2-1 1-2 1-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-3 2-1 3-0 2-0 1-2 4-0 2-2 1-0 1-0 1-0 1-0 2-1 3-1 2-1 1-0 1-0 3-1 2-0 1-0 1-1 2-0 3-1 3-0 1-1 4-1 2-0 2-1 1-1 1-0 1-0 3-0
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:59 am, edited 42 times in total.
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jonnyg
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Portugal Segunda in all games where the home team winning 1-0 HT > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band < the 2nd half fightback metric <

2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-3 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 1-1

< a massive edge in this profile because the market will be backing the draw because the draw will be odds on as time decays if still 1-1 and everyone loves to back the draw in a league with a low goal production :idea:

you will see a very high % will end over 2.5 goals which the betting industry will not factor in because of the low goal production in general in Segunda < the in play betting industry algorithm has had zero exposure to the 2nd half fightback metric in an individual league in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game :idea:

you should be looking to drip feed your bet on over 2.5 goals as time decays in the second half at 1-1 game state :!:
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:59 am, edited 18 times in total.
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jonnyg
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Portugal Segunda in games where the home team winning 1-0 HT added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band < early home goal metric <

2-1 2-1 1-2 5-1 1-0 2-0 2-2 2-0 1-1 1-0 1-2 2-0 1-0 3-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 4-0 3-1 2-0 1-1 2-1



do not back 1-1 correct score in this profile < :idea:


consider that at HT in Portugal Segunda at 1-0 HT to the home team that over 2.5 goals will be offered at around Evens - 11/8 depending on the perceived strength of the teams which is a total irrelevance :idea: < what is relevant is the half time game state added to the time of the opening goal :idea:
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:00 am, edited 19 times in total.
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jonnyg
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there is an obvious point which I will point out if you have missed it <

In Portugal Segunda in games that are 1-0 HT to the home team > 1-1 with the 2nd goal 46-70 minutes < expectation of further goal production = as a result you will see lowered expectation of a DRAW :idea:


in terms of automating your draw backing / laying >


look to see how events in play effect expectation of a draw in a game of football :!:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Wed Aug 23, 2017 5:50 pm
benfica b game 1-0 ht goal 10 minutes

2nd goal benfica = 20/21

no 2nd goal = 11/4

varzim 2nd goal = 15/8

what i can advise re 46-70 is that far more likely to go 2-0 pathway then > 1-1

if does > 1-1 in 46-70 minute time band then you will see much higher expectation of > over 2.5 goals then the betting industry will assume <



at HT 1-1 is FT is offered at 7-7.6

I treat football as if it is a game of chess < in play < map out the expected pathway and look to react to the events that occur in play < :idea:

at HT over 2.5 is offered at 11/10 and the price should be around Evens < via looking at a sample of 1-0 HT goal 0-10 in segunda >

naturally if you do back over 2.5 in this game at HT and goes > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 time band then you will have a massive value bet with around 70% expectation + of further goals < via 1-0 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band data in Segunda > Portugal <
it is possible to read a game to a high level given the events that have occurred :!:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:09 am
Portugal Segunda in games where the home team winning 1-0 HT added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band < early home goal metric <

2-1 2-1 1-2 5-1 1-0 2-0 2-2 2-0 1-1 1-0 1-2 2-0 1-0 3-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 4-0 3-1 2-0 1-1 2-1



do not back 1-1 correct score in this profile < :idea:


consider that at HT in Portugal Segunda at 1-0 HT to the home team that over 2.5 goals will be offered at around Evens - 11/8 depending on the perceived strength of the teams which is a total irrelevance :idea: < what is relevant is the half time game state added to the time of the opening goal :idea:
if we look at the last 25 games in Portugal Segunda where the home team were winning 1-0 HT with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band >

18-3-4

52% OVER 2.5 GOALS = 10/11 < AT HT LAST NIGHT < WE HAD THE benfica B game offer of over 2.5 goals at 6/5 and I advised the price should be around Evens <

what you can do with a sample of early goal games is to pick off prices where you have perceived value < and to been even more sophisticated < drip feed your trades as time decays <

what is the key here is that you can see very few games have ended a draw < the market will not factor the lowered expectation OF 1-1 IN THIS PROFILE IN SEGUNDA :idea:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:08 am
Portugal Segunda in all games where the home team winning 1-0 HT > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band < the 2nd half fightback metric <

2-1 2-1 2-2 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-3 1-2 2-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 1-2 1-1 1-1 3-1 1-1 1-1

< a massive edge in this profile because the market will be backing the draw because the draw will be odds on as time decays if still 1-1 and everyone loves to back the draw in a league with a low goal production :idea:

you will see a very high % will end over 2.5 goals which the betting industry will not factor in because of the low goal production in general in Segunda < the in play betting industry algorithm has had zero exposure to the 2nd half fightback metric in an individual league in terms of expectation of accuracy for the rest of the game :idea:

you should be looking to drip feed your bet on over 2.5 goals as time decays in the second half at 1-1 game state :!:
massive edge in this profile in Portugal segunda < 2 games fit that profile last night and both games produced a further goal >

last 18 in the profile and 78% produced a further goal(s) call that 3/10 :idea:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:07 am
Portugal Segunda 1-0 HT with the opening goal in 11-HT time band

2-1 3-0 2-1 3-0 1-1 2-0 4-1 2-2 3-0 1-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 2-3 2-1 1-2 1-0 2-1 1-0 2-1 1-3 2-1 3-0 2-0 1-2 4-0 2-2 1-0 1-0 1-0 1-0 2-1 3-1 2-1 1-0 1-0 3-1 2-0 1-0 1-1 2-0 3-1 3-0 1-1 4-1 2-0 2-1 1-1 1-0 1-0 3-0
last 51 games in Portugal Segunda where home team winning 1-0 HT with the opening goal in 11-HT time band

38-7-6

a whopping 59% over 2.5 goals

In Portugal Segunda 0-1 HT goal 0-20 V 21-HT and the much higher goal production will be seen in the early away goal metric sample <

I think we are seeing a higher goal production in the 1-0 HT goal 11-HT sample because of higher expectation of > 1-1 in 46-70 time band < and high expectation that will end over 2.5 goals <
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jonnyg
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summary <

ignore starting prices in terms of perceived strength to understand that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened by events that occur in a game <

in terms of automation < dont take a blanket approach and look at 1-0 HT games on a spreadsheet without factoring the time of the opening goal as you will not have a comprehensive picture >

understand how 1-0 HT 0-1 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band will effect accuracy for the rest of the game in individual leagues as time decays <
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:03 am
the key focus in the Portugal Segunda game >

Benfica II
2 - 1
Varzim View events More info
Heriberto Tavares 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
53' Diogo Ramos
Heriberto Tavares 78'
2 - 1

is an understanding that the betting industry in play algorithm will not differentiate between 1-0 HT goal 11-HT Portugal Segunda and 1-0 HT goal 0-10 Portugal Segunda so you need to establish if one of the samples will produce a higher goal production or not <

In terms of the core strategy for 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes time band to the home team in Portugal Segunda <

< back against ( lay ) the correct score 1-1 and if there is a fight back goal ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 time band then it is likely that the game will have further goal(s) production so in the games that are still 1-0 on 69 minutes , simply trade out of your position on the 1-1 correct score by backing 1-1 to cancel your original exposure.

< that core strategy is very sophisticated because 1-1 FT in that profile in Segunda is going to be a rare event <
that strategy is genius < if I say so myself < what I would like to see is someone match my level of in play analysis on this forum
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ruthlessimon
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My gripe is, does it need 30 posts to get the point across? I just thought replying to yourself all the time was a bit crazy :?

1 post well written (with jargon limits) would suffice - it'd be long - but it'd suffice.

Btw, I've always been fascinated by fight back analysis. I remember watching a Chelsea vs PSG market ages ago. When Chelsea scored an early goal their odds got heavily compressed - moreover a lay on Chelsea would have hardly lost any money for 10/20mins (price was just flat-lining) - then PSG equalise - huge market move. But my opinion was, this was a champions league knockout. PSG really needed to score to stay in. I didn't need to know PSGs 10yr history for that one ;)

I'd love to understand this more, but it's incredibly hard to digest your posts as a relative football newbie
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Euler
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The data provided on the other thread will give you a massive clue as to how to price a comeback. There are so few goals in footy that the data is fairly clear and doesn't' vary that much between teams, but obviously incentive to score has a key role.
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jonnyg
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Altach opened the scoring on 20

9/4 9/4 6/5 on 27 minutes

> in this profile in Europa Play off > away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes time band we see > lowered expectation of a draw >

the draw should be around 9/2 at 0-1 in this game <
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jonnyg
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Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:48 pm
The data provided on the other thread will give you a massive clue as to how to price a comeback. There are so few goals in footy that the data is fairly clear and doesn't' vary that much between teams, but obviously incentive to score has a key role.

in the 5 years that I have looked at the time of the opening goal > I have never factored in the incentive factor > how would you propose to factor incentive into football ?

the metrics I have looked at in individual leagues >

1. time of the opening goal

2. game state as time decays

3. fightback analysis > so 1-0 > 1-1

4. shot on target data < not that exciting imo

5. survival analysis in terms of football


this is a serious question for Peter , can an automated model factor in incentive ? < human nature etc < such as players being depressed etc ??

The data provided on the other thread will give you a massive clue as to how to price a comeback. < Peter is describing survival analysis which is of interest to me because the academic research thus far in this area has failed to look at individual leagues > hang on for a link to the academic research into that area <

Survival Analysis of the Timing of Goals in Soccer Games”

Submitted by

LAM CHUNG SANG
for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong
in September 2005



https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/40969/6/FullText.pdf
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jonnyg
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here was my response to the PHD study into survival analysis and football >

Survival analysis is generally defined as a set of methods for analyzing data where the outcome variable is the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. The event can be death, occurrence of a disease, marriage, divorce, etc.

If we look at Survival analysis in terms of Soccer the question we need to ask is how likely are a team to a hold a lead ?

“Survival Analysis of the Timing of Goals in Soccer Games”

Submitted by

LAM CHUNG SANG
for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong
in September 2005



https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/40969/6/FullText.pdf



Conclusion



” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”


OPTA forum 2015 < survival analysis in football >

Conclusion



” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”



If the above conclusion is correct then in effect there is no in play betting edge because in play market prices would be spot on in terms of expectation of the other team fighting back .



Nape response >

I looked at the effect of the time of the opening goal with attention to the early goal which I define as the opening goal by the home team 0-10 minutes / opening goal by the away team 0-20 minutes in individual leagues added to the major half time game states ( 1-0 /0-1 1-1 0-1 ) to understand if teams that are leading are likely to face a fightback from the other team .

Many football betting blogs will discuss the strength of teams but I have never seen any other blogs apart from socdoc.co.uk looking to see if there may be variables in play that can weaken the perceived strength of a team .

For example if we look at Manchester City in the League when losing 1-0 at half time AWAY , they last one a game in that profile in 1992



Manchester City away in the Premier league since 2008-2009 when losing 1-0 half time >



0 1415 2015-04-06 Crystal Palace Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1415 2014-10-25 West Ham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1314 2013-11-10 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 1314 2013-10-27 Chelsea Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1213 2013-03-16 Everton Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 1213 2012-08-26 Liverpool Man City 1-0 2-2
E0 1011 2011-02-12 Man United Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1011 2011-01-22 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0910 2010-03-14 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2010-02-06 Hull Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0910 2009-12-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 3-0
E0 0910 2009-10-18 Wigan Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2009-10-05 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0809 2009-05-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0809 2009-04-04 Arsenal Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 0809 2009-03-15 Chelsea Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2009-01-31 Stoke Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2008-12-28 Blackburn Man City 1-0 2-2


In the majority of the above games , the betting industry and the in play punters had some expectation of Manchester City fighting back > why ? < well <

they are seduced by >



” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”



We can look at Survival analysis in Soccer on a league level by looking at the early goal and expectation of the game going to 1-1 or 0-2 /2-0 or staying at 1-0.

In the Premier League last season in games where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes ,

GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%



We can see from above that the pathway > 2-0 is more likely then > 1-1 .

If we look at the pathway in ligue 2 in games where the away team open the scoring 0-20 last season ;

GAME PATHWAY

8/59 0-1 FT

36/59 > 1-1 15-16-5 <> away team won 14%

15/59 > 0-2 0-3-12 <> away team won 80%

and we can see that the team that concede are more likely to score the 2nd goal



Summary



If you look at individual leagues around the globe added to the time of the opening goal and the game state ( current score ) you will find which has been noted in several blogs that the team that concedes will have more shots , but they failed to notice that the shots in general will be of a low accuracy Wall which is one reason why a team does not always score more goals when they are behind and the other main reason which has never been developed is that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened by variables that may occur such as the game state ( current score )
footnote : the away team opening the scoring late in a game is more likely to score the 2nd goal then > 1-1 pathway
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