Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric

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Dallas
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There is not a single piece of data posted by you any where on this forum, copy and pasting text of results from past years and a few lines of conclusions is not data!

If you want to share some data fine your welcome to do so, if you just want to spam a forum with your blog material I'd suggest finding another forum
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

If you look at the Europa league games last night where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band / the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0% ended a draw :idea:

my advice if you have an interest in the effect of the time of the opening goal is to look at individual leagues / champions league / Europa league etc ... to define expectation of the other team fighting back as a result of the time of the opening goal = survival analysis

How will the time of the opening goal added to the game state ( current score ) effect expectation of draw bias / lack of draw bias > ?

you should as a summary be looking to lay the draw / back further goal(s) in games where you have highlighted lowered expectation of a draw < naturally the best time to lay ( back against the draw ) is late in a game in terms of a low risk high reward < but obviously you need to pick off games where you have reason to believe that there will be further goal production <

as a pointer < the early goal metric will produce a higher % of goal(s) 80 + minutes then in games with no early goal metrics


footnote > I have had a number of PM's recently and all 100% were very positive < many thanks <

football data and analysis is still an emerging area > which is the exciting part < the downside is that we are seeing resistance to change in this arena < i does not effect me as I am doing this as a hobby < my fear is that any young aspiring football data analyst will be put off from this area < :evil:
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jonnyg
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I received a PM re backing / laying 1-1 correct score in early goal games <

This season in the MLS 7% of games have ended 1-1 FT but 0% of games that produced either the opening goal by the home team 0-10 or the opening goal by the away team 0-20 this season have ended 1-1 .

what you should do is look at the effect of the early goal in an individual league in terms of expectation > 1-1 pathway or 2-0 pathway = survival analysis and if does go > 1-1 < given the events how likely will a further goal(s) be ?????
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jonnyg
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Philadelphia Union
3 - 0
New England View events More info
C. Sapong (PG) 4'
1 - 0
Ilsinho 48'
2 - 0
R. Alberg 78'
3 - 0

the game above may not have grabbed your interest in play last night > it would if you were chatting to me about it > New England last 20 games away in MLS when conceding the opening goal and scored next in only 5/20 :mrgreen:

if we fast forward to half time we see 1-0 HT and the opening goal in 0-10 minutes time band

last 64 games in the MLS where home team winning 1-0 HT with opening goal in 0-10 minutes time band > only 5/64 ended 1-1 FT <

I developed this strategy many years ago for leagues with an early home goal and 1-0 HT and lowered expectation of the away team fighting back >

In games that are 1-0 at half time to the home team with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , back against ( lay ) 1-1 correct score and you will need to have access to an exchange account and if the game is still 1-0 on 69 minutes then you should trade out by backing 1-1 correct score to avoid the possibility of a late fightback goal.

and it gets even better > at HT New England were offered at 6/5 to score goal 2 > when last 64 games in this profile = 1-0 HT goal 0-10 < only 19/64 away teams scored goal 2 = 30% = 9/4 +

the key is that the mainstream believe that the team that concede are more likely to score the next goal > that is flawed > you need to look at individual leagues and the time of the opening goal

received a PM recently asking me the best way to exploit the early goal and the effect > i advised to have a look at next goal betting pricing in early goal games <

in effect if you can build an early goal algorithm to price to a high accuracy the % expectation of > 1-1 / 0-2/2-0 or sticking at 0-1/1-0 then you will beat the betting industry algorithm until they factor in the effect of the time of the opening goal
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jonnyg
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Cabinteely
2 - 1
Cobh Ramblers
K. Waters 1'
1 - 0 < at 1-0 HT > 1-1 FT was offered at 15/4 :shock:
P. Fox 48'
2 - 0
2 - 1
52' C. Coleman

a game last night that you probably did not consider as a MONSTER in play edge > because the last game in the Republic of Ireland 1st Div where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band that ended 1-1 FT >

Limerick
1 - 1
Salthill Devon View events More info
D. Behan 1'
1 - 0
1 - 1
84' B. Geraghty

19/08/2011 :lol:

what you are looking at is survival analysis in football in terms of expectation of the other team fighting back in an INDIVIDUAL league as a result of the time of the opening goal

at 1-0 HT in the game above > 2-0 was much more likely then > 1-1 > :geek:
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CLOWNSHOES
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Dallas wrote:
Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:05 am
There is not a single piece of data posted by you any where on this forum, copy and pasting text of results from past years and a few lines of conclusions is not data!

If you want to share some data fine your welcome to do so, if you just want to spam a forum with your blog material I'd suggest finding another forum
:lol:, posts are scarily similar to cassini.
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

this game was a monster today > survival analysis < if you look at 0-1 HT added to the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band in J2 league >

0-2 pathway is just as likely as > 1-1

at HT Avispa were offered at 1/2 to score goal 2 and Zweigen at 10/3 to score goal 2 >

my summary re my last 5 years of research into the time of the opening goals in individual leagues is to focus on next goal betting because the betting industry are not strong at pricing 2nd goal betting in early goal games
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Juventude
2 - 0
Guarani View events More info
Tiago Marques 3'
1 - 0
Ruan 50'
2 - 0

if we fast forward to HT in this game we can look at survival analysis in terms of expectation of the game > 1-1 , sticking at 1-0 or going > 2-0


last 53 games in Brazil Serie B where the home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band , and 1-0 HT

only 14/53 > went to 1-1 pathway


45-8-0 < lowered expectation of the away team fighting back > indeed lowered expectation of the away team scoring in the 2nd half in this profile in Brazil serie B
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:26 pm
Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

this game was a monster today > survival analysis < if you look at 0-1 HT added to the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band in J2 league >

0-2 pathway is just as likely as > 1-1

at HT Avispa were offered at 1/2 to score goal 2 and Zweigen at 10/3 to score goal 2 >

my summary re my last 5 years of research into the time of the opening goals in individual leagues is to focus on next goal betting because the betting industry are not strong at pricing 2nd goal betting in early goal games
last 56 games in J2 league where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band >

6/56 home wins = 11%

1/0.11 = 8/1

hang on > at HT Avispa were offered at 21/10

and in the 56 games the home team scored the 2nd goal in 20/56 = 36% = 7/4

hang on because Avispa were offered at 1/2 to score goal 2


what you are looking at is Survival analysis > in effect at HT the market had higher expectation that Avispa would fightback in the 2nd half given the first half events >

the in play edge is that the betting industry do not factor the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the effect of game state as time decays but you can


data without analysis is ANT without Dek :P
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jonnyg
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as a basic summary > my advice is to ignore every pre off and in play trading model that is in existence apart from the betting industry algorithm >

all you need to do > sounds simple but I cant find anyone who can do it > thus far >

create prices for next goal betting and goal prices as time decays around the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the current score as time decays in an individual league > should be really simple if you can scrape the time data from a source >

and then compare to the betting industry in play prices >
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura < over 3.5 on 20 was offered at 11/10
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

Nagoya Grampus
0 - 2
Tokushima Vortis View events More info
0 - 1
6' R. Izutsu < over 3.5 on 6 minutes was offered at 8/11
0 - 2
55' T. Sugimoto

the goal lines on 6 minutes and 20 minutes respectively in both games ( after the opening goal ) were set at 3.5 and in an instant I could see that was wrong < too high > and I am going to show you how i made that conclusion > :mrgreen:
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

I could show you data where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and you will see that the goal line should be set at 2.5 in j2 league with a price around 4/5 < you in effect will be betting on another goal in the first half if you back over 2.5 goals in J2 early away goal games simply as a very high % end 0-1 HT and 0-1 HT goal 0-20 J2 and we see goal production impeded in the 2nd half in general >

what I am going to show you is all the games I can produce in J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 6 minutes and 20 minutes respectively >

what will the average goal production be in the 2 samples ???
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Nagoya Grampus
0 - 2
Tokushima Vortis View events More info
0 - 1
6' R. Izutsu
0 - 2
55' T. Sugimoto


Zweigen Kanazawa
3 - 2
Yokohama View events More info
0 - 1
6' A. Laajab
K. Nakami (PG) 17'
1 - 1
1 - 2
55' A. Laajab
K. Miyazaki 69'
2 - 2
K. Sato 79'
3 - 2


Machida Zelvia
2 - 4
Tokyo Verdy View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Watanabe
0 - 2
51' S. Hatanaka
0 - 3
56' Alan Pinheiro
M. Yoshida 64'
1 - 3
1 - 4
77' Koki Anzai
H. Todaka 90'
2 - 4

Kamatamare Sanuki
1 - 3
Gifu View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Furuhashi
0 - 2
14' J. Tanaka
K. Ganaha 72'
1 - 2
1 - 3
89' K. Yamada


JEF United
1 - 1
ThespaKusatsu … View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Takai
I. Takahashi 67'
1 - 1

Tokyo Verdy
2 - 1
Shimizu S-Pulse View events More info
0 - 1
6' R. Shirasaki
D. Takagi 44'
1 - 1
Y. Takagi 45'
2 - 1

Kamatamare Sanuki
0 - 1
Machida Zelvia View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Shigematsu

V-Varen Nagasaki
2 - 1
Gifu View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Kazama
R. Kajikawa 25'
1 - 1
D. Kanzaki 62'
2 - 1


Gifu
0 - 3
Oita Trinita View events More info
0 - 1
6' A. Hyodo
0 - 2
29' M. Matsumoto
0 - 3
64' H. Tameda

Tokushima Vortis
2 - 1
JEF United View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Oiwa
Y. Hasegawa 74'
1 - 1
T. Tsuda 87'
2 - 1


Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
6' S. Mizunaga
0 - 2
75' S. Mizunaga

Fagiano Okayama
0 - 1
Tokyo Verdy View events More info
0 - 1
6' M. Chugo

Avispa Fukuoka
1 - 1
ThespaKusatsu … View events More info
0 - 1
6' T. Kobayashi
D. Sakata 86'
1 - 1

V-Varen Nagasaki
1 - 1
Fagiano Okayama View events More info
0 - 1
6' Y. Kubo
R. Takasugi 88'
1 - 1


Tokyo Verdy
1 - 1
Oita Trinita View events More info
0 - 1
6' Jung-Han Choi
S. Tokiwa 62'
1 - 1


Mito Hollyhock
5 - 1
Kyoto Sanga View events More info
0 - 1
6' K. Mitsuhira
K. Baba 32'
1 - 1
K. Mishima 36'
2 - 1
M. Yoshida 79'
3 - 1
K. Mishima 85'
4 - 1
K. Uchida 90'
5 - 1

Tokushima Vortis
4 - 1
ThespaKusatsu … View events More info
0 - 1
6' T. Kobayashi
T. Tsuda (PG) 39'
1 - 1
K. Shibasaki 54'
2 - 1
Douglas 83'
3 - 1
Douglas 85'
4 - 1

Gamba Osaka
3 - 2
Vissel Kobe View events More info
0 - 1
6' Popo
T. Usami 8'
1 - 1
T. Usami 39'
2 - 1
Y. Endō 54'
3 - 1
3 - 2
57' Y. Tashiro

Oita Trinita
1 - 2
Yokohama View events More info
0 - 1
6' Y. Takeoka
Y. Morishima (PG) 50'
1 - 1
1 - 2
57' Kaio

Giravanz Kitak…
2 - 3
Ventforet Kofu View events More info
0 - 1
6' Y. Kashiwa
Jong-Pil Kim 48'
1 - 1
S. Tokiwa 77'
2 - 1
2 - 2
85' Davi
2 - 3
90' N. Hatada
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:23 am, edited 21 times in total.
User avatar
jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Avispa Fukuoka
0 - 2
Zweigen Kanazawa View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Sugiura
0 - 2
84' K. Sugiura

Renofa Yamaguchi
1 - 1
Kyoto Sanga View events More info
0 - 1
20' T. Koyamatsu
Chan-Yong Park 58'
1 - 1

Tokushima Vortis
2 - 1
Avispa Fukuoka View events More info
0 - 1
20' Y. Saneto
Y. Shimaya 24'
1 - 1
Y. Uchida 53'
2 - 1

Mito Hollyhock
0 - 2
Renofa Yamaguchi View events More info
0 - 1
20' T. Fukumitsu
0 - 2
58' T. Fukumitsu

Renofa Yamaguchi
0 - 4
Shimizu S-Pulse View events More info
0 - 1
20' R. Shirasaki
0 - 2
38' H. Ishige
0 - 3
85' K. Kitagawa
0 - 4
88' K. Murata

Fagiano Okayama
0 - 1
Giravanz Kitak… View events More info
0 - 1
20' D. Kawashima

Giravanz Kitak…
1 - 1
Consadole Sapporo View events More info
0 - 1
20' Y. Uchimura
K. Hara 90'
1 - 1

Mito Hollyhock
1 - 1
Oita Trinita View events More info
0 - 1
20' R. Nagai (PG)
K. Baba (PG) 36'
1 - 1

Consadole Sapporo
0 - 1
V-Varen Nagasaki View events More info
0 - 1
20' Y. Kimura


Avispa Fukuoka
1 - 3
Kyoto Sanga View events More info
0 - 1
20' S. Yamaguchi
0 - 2
39' Y. Ishibitsu
0 - 3
56' T. Sueyoshi (OG)
T. Nakahara 77'
1 - 3

Matsumoto Yamaga
1 - 2
Fagiano Okayama View events More info
0 - 1
20' T. Ishihara
H. Yamamoto 82'
1 - 1
1 - 2
90' T. Arata

Kyoto Sanga
3 - 1
Avispa Fukuoka View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Bajalica (OG)
R. Sakai 79'
1 - 1
Douglas 81'
2 - 1
M. Oguro 90'
3 - 1

Ehime
2 - 3
Fagiano Okayama View events More info
0 - 1
20' K. Ueda (PG)
0 - 2
23' S. Tanaka
0 - 3
36' E. Katayama
Y. Horigome 73'
1 - 3
R. Watanabe 90'
2 - 3

Consadole Sapporo
0 - 1
Ehime View events More info
0 - 1
20' N. Fuji

Mito Hollyhock
1 - 2
JEF United View events More info
0 - 1
20' A. Hyodo
K. Funatani 39'
1 - 1
1 - 2
47' T. Yazawa

Kamatamare Sanuki
1 - 4
Júbilo Iwata View events More info
0 - 1
20' R. Yamazaki
S. Suganuma (OG) 36'
1 - 1
1 - 2
49' R. Maeda
1 - 3
52' R. Yamazaki
1 - 4
63' Y. Komano

Tochigi
0 - 1
Ehime View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Kato

Tokushima Vortis
1 - 2
JEF United View events More info
0 - 1
20' A. Hyodo
K. Shibasaki 66'
1 - 1
1 - 2
68' D. Ito

Gainare Tottori
0 - 2
Consadole Sapporo View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Sunakawa
0 - 2
24' Y. Okamoto

Tokyo Verdy
1 - 1
Avispa Fukuoka View events More info
0 - 1
20' M. Koga
S. Nakajima 83'
1 - 1
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 6 minutes and the average goal production was 3.3 with 35% ending over 3.5 goals . 1/0.35 = 15/8 < if you remember on 6 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 8/11 :mrgreen:

Last 20 games in Japan J2 where the away team opened the scoring on 20 minutes and the average goal production was 2.6 with 25% over 3.5 goals , 1/0.25 = 3/1 < if you remember on 20 minutes in the game yesterday > over 3.5 was offered at 11/10 :shock:
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