I don't think anyone would expect you to make money, especially if you're botting virtual races.
Building A Strategy
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
What about if the coding was predictable?
A 2.0 fav will win, lose, win, lose, win, lose etc
There was a study done, where professional statisticians had to pick random data from non-random - & they were consistently biased by "non-streaky data" (i.e. they consistently assumed data with streaks was non-random). Perhaps the coders on the virtual races are too, never know
It’s all audited:ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:45 pmWhat about if the coding was predictable?
A 2.0 fav will win, lose, win, lose, win, lose etc
There was a study done, where professional statisticians had to pick random data from non-random - & they were consistently biased by "non-streaky data" (i.e. they consistently assumed data with streaks was non-random). Perhaps the coders on the virtual races are too, never know
http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/fo ... oring.aspx
You always have to throw a spanner in the works!ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:45 pmWhat about if the coding was predictable?
A 2.0 fav will win, lose, win, lose, win, lose etc
There was a study done, where professional statisticians had to pick random data from non-random - & they were consistently biased by "non-streaky data" (i.e. they consistently assumed data with streaks was non-random). Perhaps the coders on the virtual races are too, never know
Virtual racing is bound to be randomised with the odds against you and of all the available sports where it's possible to win to choose from, why pick virtual racing?
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
I wouldn't do it because, BF would quickly plug any hole in a dodgy algorithm. & the effort it'd take to understand how the algo's worked would be a complete nightmare.
But I am fascinated by virtual markets - literally, thousands can be made in excel, which can then be compared to the real data - & where they differ, is arguably, very interesting "seed" info
I can't imagine Betfair having a dodgy algorithm in the first place.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:55 pmI wouldn't do it because, BF would quickly plug any hole in a dodgy algorithm. & the effort it'd take to understand how the algo's worked would be a complete nightmare.
But I am fascinated by virtual markets - literally, thousands can be made in excel, which can then be compared to the real data - & where they differ, is arguably, very interesting "seed" info
Even on the old BBC Micro you could get a seed from the clock timer which can't be predicted. I'm sure randomization methods have improved since then.
Your childish insult says more about you than it does me and I made around 10k in two months from doing that before they updated their algo.
Not a lot of money for me but it was on autopilot while I worked on something else.
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- Posts: 688
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
Ambiguity of new input into this thread aside... I have a great story about botting virtual races, but it's best left to the originator to tell properly one day. Suffice to say, betfair's old offering was not efficient ! They stopped using it quite a while ago. Their newer offering doesn't look interesting.
I'm sorry if that caused any offence, but I really don't see anything childish or insulting in that post, and it's taken you over two months to feel insulted!
Nero, That's a cliff hanger! Id love to know more!Nero Tulip wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:04 amAmbiguity of new input into this thread aside... I have a great story about botting virtual races, but it's best left to the originator to tell properly one day. Suffice to say, betfair's old offering was not efficient ! They stopped using it quite a while ago. Their newer offering doesn't look interesting.
(Incidentally Nero, just wanted to mention, you replied to one of my posts April 2009.., I was simply asking how to clear the status cells in Excel. Your reply (in which you posted the code) set me off on a journey, that made a lot of money for my family and two close friends.
So a belated reply, but thank you ! I def owe you a beer if the opportunity ever presents itself! You will never know how it changed things for me.
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- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
Peter! You may have set a new record for the slowest reply on the forum hehe well, it was worth waiting 9.5 years for!... (wouldn't leave it that long from now on though!) I'm really chuffed it helped you out and it sounds like you made great use of it, I'll drop you a DM about my commission in a bit.. Slightly more seriously - I'd like to find out more too, a beer sounds good.PeterLe wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:25 pmNero, That's a cliff hanger! Id love to know more!Nero Tulip wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:04 amAmbiguity of new input into this thread aside... I have a great story about botting virtual races, but it's best left to the originator to tell properly one day. Suffice to say, betfair's old offering was not efficient ! They stopped using it quite a while ago. Their newer offering doesn't look interesting.
(Incidentally Nero, just wanted to mention, you replied to one of my posts April 2009.., I was simply asking how to clear the status cells in Excel. Your reply (in which you posted the code) set me off on a journey, that made a lot of money for my family and two close friends.
So a belated reply, but thank you ! I def owe you a beer if the opportunity ever presents itself! You will never know how it changed things for me.
True but there are thresholds. Im sure get a different result on average on virtual roulette for example depending one whether I bet 1 pence or 1 pound. I could win all day with 1 pieces but nobody in their right mind could do that. Since you cant make a living on 1 pences. Surely they can throw you some 'good luck' at the start only to make up for it with bad luck when you put more money on because you think you have found something you are good at. To be fair ive not read that whole page yet but would be interesting to know ifs thats covered in there or not.LinusP wrote: ↑Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:59 pmIt’s all audited:ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:45 pmWhat about if the coding was predictable?
A 2.0 fav will win, lose, win, lose, win, lose etc
There was a study done, where professional statisticians had to pick random data from non-random - & they were consistently biased by "non-streaky data" (i.e. they consistently assumed data with streaks was non-random). Perhaps the coders on the virtual races are too, never know
http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/fo ... oring.aspx
I could be completely wrong but ive done a lot of quite professional testing with the online casinos.
If they can. The challenge with algos is if you move one factor you move others also. So you could create a big hole trying to fix a small one.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:55 pmI wouldn't do it because, BF would quickly plug any hole in a dodgy algorithm. & the effort it'd take to understand how the algo's worked would be a complete nightmare.
But I am fascinated by virtual markets - literally, thousands can be made in excel, which can then be compared to the real data - & where they differ, is arguably, very interesting "seed" info
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You could have probably guessed that without trying it.
If I ran a virtual casino I'd want the new people who start with a penny to win, then lose when they move up to a £1. And because human nature is such that if they won before they think they'll win again, they'll continue losing £1s...or hopefully 5ers. It's like a supermarket loss leader or a dealer giving away gear for free to get people started.
100%. However, as a concerned citizen of the world I want more people to be aware of this, if its really a thing. Which by my mass tests it certainly seems to be.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:10 amYou could have probably guessed that without trying it.
If I ran a virtual casino I'd want the new people who start with a penny to win, then lose when they move up to a £1. And because human nature is such that if they won before they think they'll win again, they'll continue losing £1s...or hopefully 5ers. It's like a supermarket loss leader or a dealer giving away gear for free to get people started.