Makes sense
Soccer Poisson database
I've taken 96 minutes as an average length of a match. It wasn't a very big sample but 1-2 extra minutes in the first half and 4-5 in the second seems about right.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:39 pmHi Derek,
Nice work.
Any reason why game lenght is 96 instead of 90 ?
Cheers,
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Understood.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 5:04 pmI've taken 96 minutes as an average length of a match. It wasn't a very big sample but 1-2 extra minutes in the first half and 4-5 in the second seems about right.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 4:39 pmHi Derek,
Nice work.
Any reason why game lenght is 96 instead of 90 ?
Cheers,
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Yes. Makes sense now. Thanks !Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 2:29 pmGot it! Those figures are the average goals for this season rather than expected goals, which takes into account averages and the opponents stats. While I was checking the calculation I noticed this year in the Premiership there's been 2 more away goals than home goals! I guess covid has taken away the home advantage.ilovepizza82 wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 12:36 pmThanks Derek ! Great stuff !
However according to https://www.infogol.net/en/matches/engl ... 5-16/70767
West Brom xG is: 0.76 and Liverpool is 2, not 2.97. Same thing on Soccerstats with Liverpool having 2.
Why sucha discrepancy ?
Avg home goals: 1.340845
Avg away goals: 1.346479
Avg home team goals:0.7647059
Avg home team goals conceded:2
Avg away team goals:2
Avg away team goals conceded:1.235294
HTAS: 0.5703164
ATDS: 0.9212803
Expected home goals: 0.7045085
ATAS: 1.485356
HTDS: 0.9212803
Expected away goals: 2.970711
Pity you need to download each team each time you want to update. Wish they had at least one file for each league, not for each team.
Imagine having 5 or 6 fav leagues.
If you're using fixturedownload.com, you need to click on "Full fixture" above the teams to download all the matches and then delete the matches yet to be played (as well as rearranging the columns). Then you can click on "Results Entry" to add matches as they take place.ilovepizza82 wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 9:05 amYes. Makes sense now. Thanks !
Pity you need to download each team each time you want to update. Wish they had at least one file for each league, not for each team.
Imagine having 5 or 6 fav leagues.
- ilovepizza82
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Ah yes. Didnt notice that. Thanks again Derek ! Great help !
Remember your first post?
Poisson is completely useless to people who can't make sense of the data and take the probabilities literally. It's not the data but your interpretation of it that's important. Yours may be different to mine.nivi7 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:50 pmhello everyone
what i want is to learn Excel in order to analyze football data and applying formulas like Poisson distribution,Elo ratings etc and get as an out come probabilities
where should i start ?
Are there people who offering tutorials specifically for sport betting or smth?
I look forward to your usual insult.
welp
i did respond to your trolling with insults in all the occasions you ruined my threads
but i would never go so far to compare the level of beting you re today with the level of a newbie and ignorant of betting -
which i was when i made that post and believing in snake oils like kelly kriterion,Poisson etc-
but apparently you re
damn you son
I've upgraded the front-end database and Excel template. The setup now has a scoreboard for updating the current score and a countdown timer with a start/stop toggle button (first worksheet only). The prices/probabilities are now based on the Poisson mass function for the time remaining of the game. You can adjust the minutes remaining at any time or take a peek into a future point in the match, like Soccer Mystic. It's not quite the same as SM as the spreadsheet will be ignorant of current prices and purely based on goal expectation. Might be useful for matches that don't have the markets required for SM.
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Last edited by Derek27 on Fri May 28, 2021 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I'm well aware of that. I've become more of an under/overs man.
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