you can see that in La Liga in games where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band that > 2-0 pathway will be much more likely then > 1-1
which is contrary to the mainstream thought process >
“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal “
what is incredible is that the betting industry algorithm in play is set up as if the team conceding the opening goal is more likely to score the 2nd goal in general > I have looked at individual leagues around the globe <
so have a look at next goal betting because you will find early goal games where the 2nd goal betting is way out of line with expectation
Effect of Early Goal
in effect if you back the perceived stronger AWAY team in a game in La Liga before it starts and they concede a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band < you will spend the rest of the game in brown pants because an away win in that profile in La Liga will be rare >
people who have built pre off betting models have failed to understand that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) added to the time of the opening goal and no betting model will ever be able to predict with accuracy the time of the opening goal if it does arrive but if you trade in play then you can react to the events as they happen
people who have built pre off betting models have failed to understand that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) added to the time of the opening goal and no betting model will ever be able to predict with accuracy the time of the opening goal if it does arrive but if you trade in play then you can react to the events as they happen
Valencia
2 - 1
Real Madrid
S. Zaza 4'
1 - 0
F. Orellana 9'
2 - 0
2 - 1
44' Cristiano Ronaldo
in this game at 1-0 Real Madrid would have been offered at around 4/11 to score goal 2 <
at kick off Real Madrid were offered at 1/2 < is it possible that variables can occur during a game that will weaken the perceived strength of a team ????
and at 2-0 all the betting industry affiliates would have advised Real Madrid double chance
"58/99 > 2-0 55-1-2 > home teams won 95% > is a 2-0 lead precarious ?"
2 - 1
Real Madrid
S. Zaza 4'
1 - 0
F. Orellana 9'
2 - 0
2 - 1
44' Cristiano Ronaldo
in this game at 1-0 Real Madrid would have been offered at around 4/11 to score goal 2 <
at kick off Real Madrid were offered at 1/2 < is it possible that variables can occur during a game that will weaken the perceived strength of a team ????
and at 2-0 all the betting industry affiliates would have advised Real Madrid double chance
"58/99 > 2-0 55-1-2 > home teams won 95% > is a 2-0 lead precarious ?"
from experience do not look at a strategy of backing over 1.5 goals in the first half in early goal games < you will be spanked >
But if you simply back over 1.5 goals in early goal games < stay clear of a few leagues < such as Japan J2 < you will find although you are betting at short prices < you should get a 95% + strike rate < with long winning runs >
But if you simply back over 1.5 goals in early goal games < stay clear of a few leagues < such as Japan J2 < you will find although you are betting at short prices < you should get a 95% + strike rate < with long winning runs >
EARLY AWAY GOAL
A system to show that an early away goal during a football match often produces at least one more goal, we saw that in 91% of the last 13,996 games we analysed.
91%OVER 1.5 GOALS < you should be able to increase that % by swerving a few leagues >
72%BOTH TEAMS SCORE
70%OVER 2.5 GOALS
45%OVER 3.5 GOALS
66%AWAY SCORE AGAIN
60%OVER 2.5 GOALS & BTTS
59%1ST HALF O1.5
this is from the chaps from NEXT bet < they are not too keen on me I think they are using early away goal as 0-22 minutes <
A system to show that an early away goal during a football match often produces at least one more goal, we saw that in 91% of the last 13,996 games we analysed.
91%OVER 1.5 GOALS < you should be able to increase that % by swerving a few leagues >
72%BOTH TEAMS SCORE
70%OVER 2.5 GOALS
45%OVER 3.5 GOALS
66%AWAY SCORE AGAIN
60%OVER 2.5 GOALS & BTTS
59%1ST HALF O1.5
this is from the chaps from NEXT bet < they are not too keen on me I think they are using early away goal as 0-22 minutes <
as a point of interest it is very easy to automate early goal data re individual teams < I was approached via twitter a few years back > entity said they would build an automate system < and then it started to tweet out the data < I never found out who the entity was but I would think it was a betting company < they simply walked away <
there was another entity that said they would automate my data and they simply walked off with my analysis >
as this is only a hobby I am quite relaxed about this < so if anyone has the ability to automate data < and is not a con artist / betting industry insider then give me a DM >
no hurry though < I have been looking at the effect of the early goal for 5 + years < it is only in recent months that i can see some interest in the sense that people are now googling early away GOAL AND finding my blog < this is the first time my data is showing that they have googled early away goal to find me
my intention on this thread is to do some in play analysis > to give you some in play insight > hope you enjoy it
please no trolling <
there was another entity that said they would automate my data and they simply walked off with my analysis >
as this is only a hobby I am quite relaxed about this < so if anyone has the ability to automate data < and is not a con artist / betting industry insider then give me a DM >
no hurry though < I have been looking at the effect of the early goal for 5 + years < it is only in recent months that i can see some interest in the sense that people are now googling early away GOAL AND finding my blog < this is the first time my data is showing that they have googled early away goal to find me
my intention on this thread is to do some in play analysis > to give you some in play insight > hope you enjoy it
please no trolling <
In the regular season ( stage 1 and stage 2 ) in Japan J League 2015 where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 75% ended over 2.5 goals and 39% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 66%
The home teams won 25%, 11% ended a draw and the away teams won 64%
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
0-1 half time , 60% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 67%
Last season ( regular season ) in Japan J league where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
Game Pathway
6/49 0-1 FT
> 1-1 > 22/49 <> 7-9-6 > away teams won 27%
> 0-2 > 21/49 <> 2-0-19 > away teams won 90%
9-9-31 < away teams won 63%
0-1 half time , 50% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
Both teams scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 66%
The home teams won 25%, 11% ended a draw and the away teams won 64%
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
0-1 half time , 60% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 67%
Last season ( regular season ) in Japan J league where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
Game Pathway
6/49 0-1 FT
> 1-1 > 22/49 <> 7-9-6 > away teams won 27%
> 0-2 > 21/49 <> 2-0-19 > away teams won 90%
9-9-31 < away teams won 63%
0-1 half time , 50% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
The opening goal by the away team in J league in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT game state added to the home fightback > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and lowered expectation of a DRAW because 1-1 FT will be a rare event
3/26 1-1 FT
8-6-12 the draw is going to be the least likely outcome because 1-1 FT in this profile will be a rare event in J league >
at 1-1 in this profile in J league < lay the draw ( back against the draw ) > at 2-1/1-2 < trade out
rather more sophisticated then laying the draw before a game starts
42% of the games below produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
data correct to May 26th
3/26 1-1 FT
8-6-12 the draw is going to be the least likely outcome because 1-1 FT in this profile will be a rare event in J league >
at 1-1 in this profile in J league < lay the draw ( back against the draw ) > at 2-1/1-2 < trade out
rather more sophisticated then laying the draw before a game starts
42% of the games below produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
data correct to May 26th
Brazil Serie A 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes
last 50
GAME PATHWAY
14/50 0-1 FT
21/50 > 1-1 7-9-5 away teams won 24%
15/50 > 0-2 1-0-14 away teams won 93%
8-9-33 > away teams won 66% 1/0.66 = 1/2
32% produced a goal 80 + minutes
42% ended over 2.5 goals
massive in play edge < why ? well last 50 games in Brazil Serie A 0-1 HT with the opening goal in 21-HT minutes time band and only 30% ended over 2.5 goals
last 50
GAME PATHWAY
14/50 0-1 FT
21/50 > 1-1 7-9-5 away teams won 24%
15/50 > 0-2 1-0-14 away teams won 93%
8-9-33 > away teams won 66% 1/0.66 = 1/2
32% produced a goal 80 + minutes
42% ended over 2.5 goals
massive in play edge < why ? well last 50 games in Brazil Serie A 0-1 HT with the opening goal in 21-HT minutes time band and only 30% ended over 2.5 goals
last 50 games in Brazil Serie B 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes = 52% over 2.5 goals
last 50 games in Brazil Serie B 0-1 HT goal 21-HT = 44% over 2.5 goals
last 40 games in Norway 1st Div 0-1 HT goal 21-HT 42.5% ended over 2.5 goals
last 40 games in Norway 1st Div 0-1 HT goal 0-20 52.5% over 2.5 goals
last 50 games in Brazil Serie B 0-1 HT goal 21-HT = 44% over 2.5 goals
last 40 games in Norway 1st Div 0-1 HT goal 21-HT 42.5% ended over 2.5 goals
last 40 games in Norway 1st Div 0-1 HT goal 0-20 52.5% over 2.5 goals
Historian Russell Kirk ,in his essential book on Eliot, Eliot and His Age (1971), writes that the publication and success of The Waste Land both changed, and didn’t change Eliot’s circumstances: “Like other poets before him, Eliot woke to find himself famous; but still he labored in the cellars of Lloyd’s bank.” And by referring to the cellar here, Kirk is not being metaphorical. The novelist Aldous Huxley visited Eliot at Lloyd’s and wrote: “(Eliot) was not on the ground floor nor even on the floor under that, but in a sub-sub-basement sitting at a desk which was in a row of desks with other bank clerks.”
And while Eliot’s banking days are no secret, what is less appreciated is that he was really good at his day job. Huxley observed that Eliot was indeed “the most bank-clerky of all bank clerks.” And an officer of Lloyd’s, upon hearing of Eliot’s success with his “hobby,” remarked that Eliot had a bright future at Lloyd’s if he wanted it. “If he goes on as he has been doing, I don’t see why — in time, of course, in time — he mightn’t even become Branch Manager.” Eliot eventually took a post with famed publisher Faber & Faber where he worked for decades, eventually earning the title of Director. And Eliot was no figurehead at the publishing house; this was not a “writer-in-residence” gig — Eliot had to bring his business acumen to work each day. Faber colleague Frank Morley remembered that “Eliot had a theory you were not likely to lose money on the books you didn’t publish.”
If Mr. Eliot had to have a day job, why is it that writers and poets today are so cagey about what they do to pay the bills?
the same appears to be true re football betting analysts > it appears that image is everything which for me is perplexing < I would rather look at football data and analysis from say a bank clerk by day who provided a high level of analysis then a chap who spent all day providing betting tips that were rubbish
And while Eliot’s banking days are no secret, what is less appreciated is that he was really good at his day job. Huxley observed that Eliot was indeed “the most bank-clerky of all bank clerks.” And an officer of Lloyd’s, upon hearing of Eliot’s success with his “hobby,” remarked that Eliot had a bright future at Lloyd’s if he wanted it. “If he goes on as he has been doing, I don’t see why — in time, of course, in time — he mightn’t even become Branch Manager.” Eliot eventually took a post with famed publisher Faber & Faber where he worked for decades, eventually earning the title of Director. And Eliot was no figurehead at the publishing house; this was not a “writer-in-residence” gig — Eliot had to bring his business acumen to work each day. Faber colleague Frank Morley remembered that “Eliot had a theory you were not likely to lose money on the books you didn’t publish.”
If Mr. Eliot had to have a day job, why is it that writers and poets today are so cagey about what they do to pay the bills?
the same appears to be true re football betting analysts > it appears that image is everything which for me is perplexing < I would rather look at football data and analysis from say a bank clerk by day who provided a high level of analysis then a chap who spent all day providing betting tips that were rubbish
I am not an avid reader but I am reading deep thinking by Kasparov < looking at artificial intelligence > a must read and my thought is that the betting industry in play algorithm is only as good as the chaps who built it and from where I am looking it has a few holes which can be exploited until they are filled up
The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time Game State in Japan J2 League
last 30 >
47% over 2.5 goals
23-4-3 > home teams won 77%
33% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
8/30 1-0 FT
12/30 > 2-0 12-0-0 > home teams won 100%
10/30 > 1-1 3-4-3 > home teams won 30%
last 30 >
47% over 2.5 goals
23-4-3 > home teams won 77%
33% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
8/30 1-0 FT
12/30 > 2-0 12-0-0 > home teams won 100%
10/30 > 1-1 3-4-3 > home teams won 30%