In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

[jonnyg]

Summary

Joe Public decides that want to look at 1-0 HT to the home team in Portugal Segunda <

they go to a site and pull out 1-0 HT portugal segunda <

it is not going to show < pathways < times of goals < fightback metrics <

[jonnyg]

keep an eye on wacker game < austria erste if 1-0 HT < because opening goal 0-10 minutes erste league and 1-0 HT game state >

low expectation of away team fighting back = survival analysis

Erste league in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT

last 26

54% over 2.5 goals

21-3-2 < home teams won 81%, 35% produced a goal 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

7/26 1-0 FT

11/26 > 2-0 10-1-0

8/26 > 1-1 4-2-2

[jonnyg]

wacker 1-0 HT

3/10 15/4 17/2 > Wacker are offered at 3/10 and should be around 1/4

> 2-0 = 21/10

1-0 FT = 3/1

> 1-1 = 13/8

over 2.5 is offered at evens < should be around 4/5

[LeTiss]

That's a lovely touch there JonnyG - Wacker now 3-0 up

[jonnyg]

wacker 1-0 HT

3/10 15/4 17/2 > Wacker are offered at 3/10 and should be around 1/4

> 2-0 = 21/10

1-0 FT = 3/1

> 1-1 = 13/8

over 2.5 is offered at evens < should be around 4/5

FT 3-0 > that is very strong analysis > I have no idea who plays for Wacker and no idea what the SP was and no idea what the shot on target production was

[jonnyg]

Celta early away goal and > 1-1

on 40 minutes we have the following prices >

6/4 8/5 13/5

Posted on: January 22nd, 2017

In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .

29-11-10 home teams won 58%

GAME PATHWAY

6/50 1-1 FT

> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%

> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%

3/50 ended 2-2

[jonnyg]

If the Betis game is 1-1 HT you should look at backing betis draw no bet

betis 1-1 ht

13/8 6/4 13/5

betis 3rd goal = 6/5 , no 3rd goal = 5/2 , celta 3rd goal = 13/8

over 2.5 = 2/7 , over 3.5 = 6/5

[jonnyg]

1'
Mateo Cassierra
1 - 0
12'
Robert Muric
2 - 0
52'
Robert Muric
3 - 0
57'

3 - 1
Perr Schuurs
60'

3 - 2
Lisandro Semedo
75'
Dennis Johnsen
4 - 2

in 2014 the racing post advised that the opening goal on 1 minute does not lead to a landslide of goals

in general it does

[jonnyg]

Go Ahead Eagles
1 - 1
NEC View events More info
0 - 1
11' S. Braken
S. Hendriks 14'
1 - 1

this game not in line with expectation


Last 50 games in Holland Jupiler where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 HT

20-17-13 > away teams won 26%

1/0,26% = 3.85

42/50 over 2.5 goals = 84% , 1/0.84 = 1.19

50% over 3.5 goals = Evens

30% over 4.5 goals = 3.33

average goal production = 3.74

[jonnyg]

If the Betis game is 1-1 HT you should look at backing betis draw no bet

betis 1-1 ht

13/8 6/4 13/5

betis 3rd goal = 6/5 , no 3rd goal = 5/2 , celta 3rd goal = 13/8

over 2.5 = 2/7 , over 3.5 = 6/5

you will not find better free in play analysis on social media > I am a genius <

[jonnyg]

what is incredible > the betting industry in play algorithm does not factor the effect of the time of the opening goal added to game state

at HT no 3rd goal was offered at 5/2 < given events of first half = 85% + expectation of over 2.5 goals

> when you look at 1-1 Ht spreadsheets = useless if you dont factor which team opened the scoring and the time of the opening goal <

[jonnyg]

If you can match my in play level then feel free to join me on this thread <

[jonnyg]

Celta early away goal and > 1-1

on 40 minutes we have the following prices >

6/4 8/5 13/5

Posted on: January 22nd, 2017

In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .

29-11-10 home teams won 58%

GAME PATHWAY

6/50 1-1 FT

> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%

> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%

3/50 ended 2-2

2-1

[jonnyg]

a very good evening of in play analysis .

taking some time off but will back soon >

[Euler]

Feel free to post on your own thread, but please stop trying to highjack others and mass copying and pasting the same info. People can decide if they want to read this thread or not and you can encourage that by posting decent content. But if you highjack other threads and try and drown out discussion the moderators will ban you.