Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[Derek27]

THe score is 2 - 0 after 75' - did you see that coming ?

I'm sure he knew those goals were going in, before they went in, and tomorrow he'll look back and wonder, or ask the forum, why he couldn't turn a 0% profit into a 500% profit.

[Cardano]

THe score is 2 - 0 after 75' - did you see that coming ?

I'm sure he knew those goals were going in, before they went in, and tomorrow he'll look back and wonder, or ask the forum, why he couldn't turn a 0% profit into a 500% profit.

Brilliant

[Derek27]

Before you dismiss the above as a silly comment, I think you should give it some serious consideration, but I've no doubt you'll ignore it and fire up more questions.

Trust me there are still 100's of questions I could ask lol

Like at the moment I am following a match in Chile, I looked at the form and I was convinced there wouldn't be many goals and it is currently 0-0 after 1 hour but I can't see any value. What do I do in those situations? It is frustrating, the game is going how I thought it would but the reward for the risk doesn't seem worth it.

I think your problem Luke, is that you only see what you want to see.

Can you see text above in red and green, or do you only see the green?

[Kai]

Jokes aside Derek, it just goes to show how alien the concept of trading can be to an outsider and how difficult it is to understand for some people.

It's best to let the learning process take its natural course, no chance you can have a sensible discussions until he gets the basics right, even if you over-explain things, there's just too much basic information missing. Who knows if he can even use and browse the forum properly like you said, he did barely manage to turn on subtitles on a Youtube video only after someone posted a picture on how to do it. May not be cut out for these things, but time will tell.

[Kai]

So I have rewatched this video based on how to handle losses, what are peoples views on it?

You can't expect people to watch a 50min video just to give you their view on it, but I can tell you in short what the general view is, since you will no doubt run into losses soon. They are a normal part of trading, winning is easy for everyone but losing is hard and people start doing stupid and emotional things when they start losing, they chase losses by going well outside of their strategies and they get tilted etc.

Do research on +EV (positive expected value), if you develop such football strategies that give you +EV in the long term then you don't care about losses, you just accept them and move on, the whole point is to have more winning trades than losing trades, even though the variance in results can be large in football.

Best to stop asking basic questions before it ends in a ban and go have a read through the football subforum here at least, that should fill in most of the blanks. You can come back in a few months to give people an update or whatever, if you don't give up by then.

All of the basic information that you're looking for (along with a lot of advanced stuff) is buried here under your threads. But it's here and it's free, so instead of wanting to be spoon fed you should get off your a** and go get it yourself.

[Derek27]

I've realised now Kai, he doesn't read anything useful you post, which is why he thinks the forum's useless. Criticise him and he will react defensively, crack a mild joke and you're being childish, but post a pageful of useful advice with links and it's "I've just seen this video, blah blah, any views". Or "I was trading this match, it was 1-0, I knew it was going to be 2-0 but I traded out for a 20% profit when I could have waited and got a 250% profit, what did I do wrong?".

[Derek27]

Can't quote the post because the topic's been locked, but I think BetBuddy was spot on here.

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[Kai]

This person is a complete muppet. I would suggest everyone just ignores him/her.

You can Derek I changed the timestamp to Luke's probable date of birth too

[Derek27]

This person is a complete muppet. I would suggest everyone just ignores him/her.

You can Derek I changed the timestamp to Luke's probable date of birth too

I'm aware of how to edit the post headings, I think I did that with nivi7 when he had a topic locked as I was replying to a post, but it's been a long night.

I reckon Luke really started this thread to test the patience of forum members. Most members quite sensibly didn't get involved in the contest. Those that did slowly dropped out one by one. Shaun yesterday threw in the towel, Peter appears to have nothing more to say, and I'm now formally retiring from the contest.

So on behalf of the forum, I congratulate you as the winner Kai.

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[JustLukeYou]

Hi Euler,

So I have been reading up on Estimated Value from this Smarkets page https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/arti ... in-betting

As the page points out just because someone finds a positive EV doesn't mean they will make a profit so what is the best way to apply a positive EV? Let's say for example I find 10 football matches. I think 5 will finish with the home team winning and 5 with away team winning. Do I calculate the EV and follow the ones with a positive EV? For example, I think in the 7th match the away team will win and the odds have a positive EV so I should back that trade over the other 9 potential trades?

Also, how do I use a EV in a live match. Let's say for example Bayern Munich are away and I expect them to win comfortably. They go 0-1 up and I am watching the match and still expect them to win comfortably. The odds for 1-3 are 8 and I expect that if they go 0-3 up or 1-2 the odds will drop to 4 and I can trade out for a profit. How can I use EV in this situation? Do I have to stop and calculate the EV even though I may risk losing out on the odds of 8 falling to 6?

I need to spend more time on this but I am still unsure how to deploy EV effectively.

(I am sure I do have a knack for this. For example last night I was following a match in Chile, Everton CD v Curico Unido, Everton CD were 2-0 up with around 10 minutes left. The odds for 2+ goals went to 2.1 so most people thought there would be no more goals but I could see that Curico Unido were still attacking and the match finished 2-1 and I made a 110% profit. I just need to find ways to channel what I am doing more effectively. That includes trading out to early)

[JustLukeYou]

This is a fantastic video if anyone else is interested:

[Speculator_3]

Hi Euler,

So I have been reading up on Estimated Value from this Smarkets page https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/arti ... in-betting

As the page points out just because someone finds a positive EV doesn't mean they will make a profit so what is the best way to apply a positive EV? Let's say for example I find 10 football matches. I think 5 will finish with the home team winning and 5 with away team winning. Do I calculate the EV and follow the ones with a positive EV? For example, I think in the 7th match the away team will win and the odds have a positive EV so I should back that trade over the other 9 potential trades?

There is no such thing as "odds have a positive EV".

Read the page again and this time try to understand what EV means.

The given odds at any one time, combined over all possible outcomes (win/draw/lose) produce a net 0 (or negative) EV for any match, unless there is an arbitrage opportunity between different exchanges/bookmakers, which is very rare.

[JustLukeYou]

Hi Euler,

So I have been reading up on Estimated Value from this Smarkets page https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/arti ... in-betting

As the page points out just because someone finds a positive EV doesn't mean they will make a profit so what is the best way to apply a positive EV? Let's say for example I find 10 football matches. I think 5 will finish with the home team winning and 5 with away team winning. Do I calculate the EV and follow the ones with a positive EV? For example, I think in the 7th match the away team will win and the odds have a positive EV so I should back that trade over the other 9 potential trades?

There is no such thing as "odds have a positive EV".

Read the page again and this time try to understand what EV means.

The given odds at any one time, combined over all possible outcomes (win/draw/lose) produce a net 0 (or negative) EV for any match, unless there is an arbitrage opportunity between different exchanges/bookmakers, which is very rare.

But aren't you comparing all three odds together though not just one single odd against the probability of it happening.

[Speculator_3]

Hi Euler,

So I have been reading up on Estimated Value from this Smarkets page https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/arti ... in-betting

As the page points out just because someone finds a positive EV doesn't mean they will make a profit so what is the best way to apply a positive EV? Let's say for example I find 10 football matches. I think 5 will finish with the home team winning and 5 with away team winning. Do I calculate the EV and follow the ones with a positive EV? For example, I think in the 7th match the away team will win and the odds have a positive EV so I should back that trade over the other 9 potential trades?

There is no such thing as "odds have a positive EV".

Read the page again and this time try to understand what EV means.

The given odds at any one time, combined over all possible outcomes (win/draw/lose) produce a net 0 (or negative) EV for any match, unless there is an arbitrage opportunity between different exchanges/bookmakers, which is very rare.

But aren't you comparing all three odds together though not just one single odd against the probability of it happening.

Expected value is calculated by summing over all possible outcomes. When you consider the odds given to you by the bookmaker / exchange, you will see that it is zero (or negative). Verify it for yourself on any match.

When people talk about finding +EV, they mean finding situations where the probability of something happening is not accurately represented by the given odds at that time.

[JustLukeYou]

There is no such thing as "odds have a positive EV".

Read the page again and this time try to understand what EV means.

The given odds at any one time, combined over all possible outcomes (win/draw/lose) produce a net 0 (or negative) EV for any match, unless there is an arbitrage opportunity between different exchanges/bookmakers, which is very rare.

But aren't you comparing all three odds together though not just one single odd against the probability of it happening.

Expected value is calculated by summing over all possible outcomes. When you consider the odds given to you by the bookmaker / exchange, you will see that it is zero (or negative). Verify it for yourself on any match.

So why does the Smarkets guide provide positive EV's?