Gold

[superfrank]

Yep, 'couldn't agree more.

The same thing happens in the final stages of all empires.

The financial crisis has only just started.

[superfrank]

Germany urges Portugal to sell its gold...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05 ... your-gold/

Total reserves (tonnes)

1 United States 8,133.5
2 Germany 3,401.0
3 IMF 2,814.0
4 Italy 2,451.8
5 France 2,435.4
6 China 1,054.1
7 Switzerland 1,040.1
8 Russia 792.3
9 Japan 765.2
10 Netherlands 612.5
11 India 557.7
12 ECB 502.1
13 Taiwan 423.6
14 Portugal 382.5
15 Venezuela 365.8
16 Saudi Arabia 322.9
17 United Kingdom 310.3
18 Lebanon 286.8
19 Spain 281.6
20 Austria 280.0

So thanks to Moron Clown we now have just a bit more gold than Lebanon!

The Treasury pre-announced its plans to sell 395 tons of the 715 tons held by the Bank of England, which caused prices to fall.

The bullion was sold in 17 auctions between 1999 and 2002, with dealers paying between $256 and $296 an ounce (20 year lows).

Watch Gordo defend his decision to sell here - pure comedy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDm8zGwcdZ4

[Euler]

Commodity prices have staged a partial recovery in Asian trade after markets were hammered by one of the biggest sell-offs in two years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13305462

Buy when people are fearful and sell when they are greedy.

[Euler]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5788dbac-7680 ... z1LYQhBVih

Mr Brown could have gained a better price by waiting. At current rates, the $3.5bn the UK received selling bullion between 1999 and 2002 would have been closer to $19bn. The difference at current exchange rates, by the way, would be enough to cover a little over three weeks of the UK’s expected public deficit for the fiscal year 2010-2011.

If this happed in a private company Mr Brown would never ever get another job again. But a balanced peice by the FT showing the dangers of speculation.

[superfrank]

I'm trying to be careful not to jump the gun!

If oil falls further it could take other commods with it, but rally in the $ won't last for long IMO.

[superfrank]

The difference at current exchange rates, by the way, would be enough to cover a little over three weeks of the UK’s expected public deficit for the fiscal year 2010-2011.

A frightening stat.

If this happed in a private company Mr Brown would never ever get another job again.

And they were talking about him being the next head of the IMF! You couldn't make it up.

[Iron]

I still think you may have that the wrong way around.

Let's use a rising market on Betfair as an analogy. If the price is drifting rapidly, it means that layers are greedy. At that point (correct me if I'm wrong), you would let the market be. It would only be when people start to get afraid that the price might collapse, and panic, that you would place a back order. Surely the equivalent of that in the financial markets is selling when people are fearful following a rally, and the price is showing signs that it may be about to collapse.

Jeff

Buy when people are fearful and sell when they are greedy.

[Iron]

The drop in oil has been quite startling!

If it's due to the killing of Bin Laden, IMHO the markets have grossly over-estimated the significance of one man.

Jeff

If oil falls further it could take other commods with it, but rally in the $ won't last for long IMO.

[Iron]

PS This article offers some hypotheses about the recent fall in commodities: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilp ... fears.html

People who think UK housing definitely won't fall by more than 25%, take heed of the following:

'Now below $38 per ounce, [silver] has dropped by 28pc this week.

Only last month it was at a 31-year high of almost $50 an ounce.'

Jeff

The drop in oil has been quite startling!

If it's due to the killing of Bin Laden, IMHO the markets have grossly over-estimated the significance of one man.

Jeff

[superfrank]

If it's due to the killing of Bin Laden, IMHO the markets have grossly over-estimated the significance of one man.

I may be paranoid but I'm not sure we're dealing with free markets.

I think it's driven by favoured investment banks who have been given the nod by the powers that be and then trade en masse.

It's the same with the run up in share prices since QE started. There's even a quote from Obama in 2009 when he pretty much says now would be a good time to buy back in.

The FED want higher house prices and share prices but don't want higher commodity prices - this brutal correction is a warning from them.

[Iron]

I think it's driven by investment bankers who have been given the nod by the powers that be and then trade en masse.

Whilst I'm sure that market manipulation goes on, I'd have thought it would be far more subtle.

For the kind of movement we've seen in the last couple of days to be due to a conspiracy, a lot of people would have needed to be in on it. And I'm sceptical of large-scale conspiracies: there's too much risk of information leaking.

And I'm not sure it was in the bankers' interest for prices to fall. Many of them would have been sitting on very nice long positions at the beginning of the week, which they may now have to consider exiting earlier than they might have liked.

BTW, there's an interesting interview here on whether the market is rigged more generally: http://www.michaelcovel.com/2011/05/05/ ... et-rigged/

Jeff

[Iron]

Gold rush: All change for the world's favourite metal:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13156756

Jeff

[Euler]

Soro's dumps $800m gold stake

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/17/markets ... ?iid=HP_LN

[superfrank]

Paulson, Soros at Odds Over Gold's Direction
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11122273 ... ction.html

[superfrank]

Turd Ferguson reckons the bottom for silver is in... some interesting analysis here: http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011 ... -what.html