£25 a day - A beginner's journey
With respect, do you think the people on the other side of your lays are idiots who have no clue what the true price of the horse is?007 wrote: Only laying favourites under 4.0, for small potatoes to build up a wee bank. Working a dream so far.. and learning as I go.. 3 out of 3 yesterday but have no real reference points to gadge things.
See using Adrian Massey's site how you would have done laying every favorite under 4.0 over the past few years, and then deduct Betfair commission: http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php
You'll lose money with your strategy - slowly, but surely. Never forget that the market knows far more than you do. With your strategy, you might as well be writing a cheque and making it out to the profitable traders and betters on Betfair...
Jeff
Thanks, but please see my post here:to75ne wrote:Frogmella there really is not much more to it than the price goes up, the price goes down or it stays where it is, until something makes it move.
the vids you refer to shows the capabilities (and limits) of the software,nothing more.
to succeed you need to get your head right and aim for small wins and take small losses to start with. you really have to react quickly, 1 tick gain close out,1 tick loss close out(scratching) not sure whats gonna happen, dont wait, close for no loss or 1 or 2 tick loss (scratching). you have to be able to read/sense/feel the markets. this will come over many many markets and hence a whole lotta of time. there are no short cuts.
this trading thing is a head game, if you cant take loses then you may as well give up.
if you cant/too impatient to take the time to learn to read the markets give it up.
dont set any targets or expectations, just learn to read the markets at the moment you cant read them, the numbers move but you dont quite know why.
if you gonna try trading pre off horse racing, then dont trade inplay. hedge green or red before the official off and move to next market (inplay trading is a totally different form of trading, pre off horse race trading does not mix at all well with inplay horse race trading and inplay trading will slaughter you sooner rather than later).
dont dutch, dont make a book, dont straight back, dont straight lay. dont do anything other then learning to read and trade the pre off markets. if your gonna trade then trade.
nearly forgot, you would probably do better if you read some of the posts on this forum, as some explain things better than demo vids of ba features.
a good one to start off with is a post by james 1st. think its called "newbies trading in the dark". also posts by jollygreen, mugsgame, peterlee, (obviously euler) to name but a few.
you will find explanations of volatility, w.o.m. ranging, swinging, break outs, etc, etc, etc , etc ,etc, etc, and other good points.
do yourself a favor and take the time (quite a long time) and search the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=6871#p53988
Look, if your motivation is money, then I can't recommend Betfair trading. I've seen a number of desperate people coming through the forum (e.g. people who are unemployed), and the reason I have to be so negative is that I know for a fact trading is only going to put them in a world of hurt.
I've been doing it on and off for a couple of years and made no secret of the fact I've had a tremendously hard time with it. I'm of about average intelligence, and tried really really hard, thrown everything but the proverbial kitchen sink at it; I've found extracting any sort of profit very vey difficult. I think that shows what newbies are in for.
If you've got a lot of money to play around with, then give it a go, as an interesting expensive hobby. But personally, I think this is about the world's hardest job and can't recommend it as an income stream.
I'd also agree with the others that you should forget about punting. Unless you've got a huge bank and a lot of patience, the problem is that you just can't put anywhere enough money on to make a decent living, even if you did have an edge. Back bets just don't come in often enough, the only thing I'd consider for punting these days is laying, but even there, it's just too frustrating when they come in. On the other hand, the cynic in me thinks that punting is better for newbies, because they won't lose their money as quickly. Trading you are putting more through faster, you are going to chuck your money away even faster than you will punting
I've been doing it on and off for a couple of years and made no secret of the fact I've had a tremendously hard time with it. I'm of about average intelligence, and tried really really hard, thrown everything but the proverbial kitchen sink at it; I've found extracting any sort of profit very vey difficult. I think that shows what newbies are in for.
If you've got a lot of money to play around with, then give it a go, as an interesting expensive hobby. But personally, I think this is about the world's hardest job and can't recommend it as an income stream.
I'd also agree with the others that you should forget about punting. Unless you've got a huge bank and a lot of patience, the problem is that you just can't put anywhere enough money on to make a decent living, even if you did have an edge. Back bets just don't come in often enough, the only thing I'd consider for punting these days is laying, but even there, it's just too frustrating when they come in. On the other hand, the cynic in me thinks that punting is better for newbies, because they won't lose their money as quickly. Trading you are putting more through faster, you are going to chuck your money away even faster than you will punting
if you are gonna back, you will have to back consistently higher than sp.
if your gonna lay, you will have to lay consistently lower than sp.
if you cant do the above, you best do as jeff suggests or do nothing.
it is possible to trade a price to get a liability lower then price;s trading and hence hopefully a liability lower than sp but, you will probably need to read form, have rating system etc; lots of time and effort involved, better to trade and take the margin - far easier in my opinion and experience.
if your gonna lay, you will have to lay consistently lower than sp.
if you cant do the above, you best do as jeff suggests or do nothing.
it is possible to trade a price to get a liability lower then price;s trading and hence hopefully a liability lower than sp but, you will probably need to read form, have rating system etc; lots of time and effort involved, better to trade and take the margin - far easier in my opinion and experience.
Ferru123 wrote:I thought you were using it to make £150 a day?Zenyatta wrote:Look, if your motivation is money, then I can't recommend Betfair trading.
Jeff
My automated system now might be able to make that much per day if I put huge amounts through, but it's really only making up for all the stupid things I'd previously done over the past couple of years...in other words, I'm really only recovering all the earlier losses.
And there we have it, you may, after years of effort find a strategy that pays but how much will it have cost you to get there and will you ever recover your investment and make enough on top to have made it worthwhile?Zenyatta wrote:Ferru123 wrote:I thought you were using it to make £150 a day?Zenyatta wrote:Look, if your motivation is money, then I can't recommend Betfair trading.
Jeff
My automated system now might be able to make that much per day if I put huge amounts through, but it's really only making up for all the stupid things I'd previously done over the past couple of years...in other words, I'm really only recovering all the earlier losses.
Nothing worthwhile was ever achieved without effort and dedication.
But on the flip side of the coin, while most people are battling through rush hour traffic on the way to work, your accomplished Betfair trader is possibly sound asleep, dreaming of the few hundreds pounds he'll make in the afternoon...
Jeff
But on the flip side of the coin, while most people are battling through rush hour traffic on the way to work, your accomplished Betfair trader is possibly sound asleep, dreaming of the few hundreds pounds he'll make in the afternoon...
Jeff
Frogmella wrote: And there we have it, you may, after years of effort find a strategy that pays but how much will it have cost you to get there and will you ever recover your investment and make enough on top to have made it worthwhile?
My idea is to be using £100 level stakes, and then look at the BA software as another source of income. But from what you guys have said, trading seems alot harder than it is portrayed on the videos. Might just stick with laying - but from the sounds of it, I might be having a lucky streak just now.. never mind one can dream..
Last edited by 007 on Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
007 - If you have a trading edge, then your betting bank will quickly compound. You don't need an absolute fortune to start off with.
However, if you don't have an edge when laying, then even with sensible staking it's just a matter of time before you give all your money to the market. If the market is efficient (which, overall it is), then the only long-term winner from your strategy is Betfair itself.
Sadly, I suspect that you'll plough on regardless...
Jeff
However, if you don't have an edge when laying, then even with sensible staking it's just a matter of time before you give all your money to the market. If the market is efficient (which, overall it is), then the only long-term winner from your strategy is Betfair itself.
Sadly, I suspect that you'll plough on regardless...
Jeff
007,
See what Jeff said, the market is highly efficient. Stop kidding yourself.
To be betting level stakes of 100, you'd need a starting bank of 4000 or so, or else runs of bad luck would wipe you out sooner rather than later. Even with level stakes that high, even if you had an edge of 5% (highly unlikely even for an expert), you'd only be making 5 per race over the long run.
See what Jeff said, the market is highly efficient. Stop kidding yourself.
To be betting level stakes of 100, you'd need a starting bank of 4000 or so, or else runs of bad luck would wipe you out sooner rather than later. Even with level stakes that high, even if you had an edge of 5% (highly unlikely even for an expert), you'd only be making 5 per race over the long run.
Zenyatta,
If 007 is as fast a runner as his namesake he stands a chance. Basically, if he can outsprint Lady Luck, then he'll do OK. Otherwise, he'll get taken to the cleaners. However, fast a runner as Bond is, my money is on Lady Luck - I think she'll catch up with him before he reaches his goal. It's possible 007 will pull off what he's aiming to do and become a bit of a legend, but I doubt it...
Jeff
If 007 is as fast a runner as his namesake he stands a chance. Basically, if he can outsprint Lady Luck, then he'll do OK. Otherwise, he'll get taken to the cleaners. However, fast a runner as Bond is, my money is on Lady Luck - I think she'll catch up with him before he reaches his goal. It's possible 007 will pull off what he's aiming to do and become a bit of a legend, but I doubt it...
Jeff
The problem is, most people involved in Sport Trading have gravitated from being a punter. As a result, they have to control those instincts and it's not always easy keeping a lid on those emotions
My guess is 007 won't be around for too much longer
My guess is 007 won't be around for too much longer