Well it's the big one today at lunchtime, for what it's worth here's a couple of variables:
Conditions good for Nadal - warmest/sunniest day of the week. Ball will jump off the court better than all the other days of the last week and a half. The court also suits Nadal - surface and size, as you can see he has always taken care of Djokovic at the French Open. In their four career meetings here, Nadal is 4-0 and has won 11 sets to 1.
Nadal needs to stop trying to HIT THROUGH Novak. Hitting through Fed is not a problem - but Novak loves it. He absorbs pace and has tons of patience and stamina. And he likes to prove he is physically stronger - a better warrior.
IMO how to beat Novak is variety. Changing pace, ball height, angles, court positioning, etc. Nadal has shown more variety to me since his comeback. His hard work culminated in Rome where I thought his strategy and implementation of it was fantastic.
The question is this - Will he actually employ some of this new strategy? Varying court position, return position, aggression with defense and angles all over the court - not just big heavy spins over and over. Or will he stubbornly persist on heavy straight line aggression with big power spins from the baseline. The same stubbornness that always destroyed Fed in his matches with Nadal.
Novak likes a rhythm and doesn't mind the pounding from the baseline. Ditto Nadal - but something needs to give and Novak IMO has the mental edge and is on a mission to win for his childhood coach.
Im struggling to find an entry point from the start considering all the above, I might lay the first person to break, any other of you guys got an opinion?
Roland Garros 2013
Nice analysis
I just wonder if Djokovic finds a way to get into Nadal's head. He has beaten Rafa more times on clay in the past 2 years, than Federer has in his whole career! In fact, all of Novak's victories against Rafa on clay - Rome, Madrid, Monte Carlo were all in straight sets
Monte Carlo this year was interesting. Djokovic only entered because he lives there, he had a swollen ankle. Rafa had won 8 Monte Carlo Masters in succession, but Novak beat him 2-0. It was a lovely sunny day, so should have suited Rafa. You could see the amazement & disgust on Rafa's face at the end!
It's impossible to write either off, so it's going to be fascinating, but my gut tells me that Djokovic has found a way to grab Nadal by his short & curlies
I just wonder if Djokovic finds a way to get into Nadal's head. He has beaten Rafa more times on clay in the past 2 years, than Federer has in his whole career! In fact, all of Novak's victories against Rafa on clay - Rome, Madrid, Monte Carlo were all in straight sets
Monte Carlo this year was interesting. Djokovic only entered because he lives there, he had a swollen ankle. Rafa had won 8 Monte Carlo Masters in succession, but Novak beat him 2-0. It was a lovely sunny day, so should have suited Rafa. You could see the amazement & disgust on Rafa's face at the end!
It's impossible to write either off, so it's going to be fascinating, but my gut tells me that Djokovic has found a way to grab Nadal by his short & curlies
Can't wait for the matches today!
Stats on Djokovic vs Nadal
Matches 15/19
Sets 40/49
Games 427/435
2-0 10/8
2-1 2/4
3-0 0/3
3-1 2/2
3-1 1/0
Surface ratings 2580/4590
Wins
Hard 9/3
Clay 3/12
Grass 1/2
Recent head to head record: -
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 3.38 - Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-2 7-6(1)
Winner : Rafael Nadal - Odds - 1.38 - French Open - Paris - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-4 6-3 2-6 7-5
Winner : Rafael Nadal - Odds - 1.64 - Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome - Surface type, Clay - Score : 7-5 6-3
Winner : Rafael Nadal - Odds - 1.7 - Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-3 6-1
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 1.8 - Australian Open - Melbourne - Surface type, Hard - Score : 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-7(5) 7-5
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 1.7 - U.S. Open - New York - Surface type, Hard - Score : 6-2 6-4 6-7(3) 6-1
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 2.52 - Wimbledon - London - Surface type, Grass - Score : 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 3.12 - Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-4 6-4
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 3.52 - Mutua Madrilena Madrid Open - Madrid - Surface type, Clay - Score : 7-5 6-4
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 2.34 - Sony Ericsson Open - Miami - Surface type, Hard - Score : 4-6 6-3 7-6(4)
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 1.86 - BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells - Surface type, Hard - Score : 4-6 6-3 6-2
Stats on Djokovic vs Nadal
Matches 15/19
Sets 40/49
Games 427/435
2-0 10/8
2-1 2/4
3-0 0/3
3-1 2/2
3-1 1/0
Surface ratings 2580/4590
Wins
Hard 9/3
Clay 3/12
Grass 1/2
Recent head to head record: -
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 3.38 - Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-2 7-6(1)
Winner : Rafael Nadal - Odds - 1.38 - French Open - Paris - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-4 6-3 2-6 7-5
Winner : Rafael Nadal - Odds - 1.64 - Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome - Surface type, Clay - Score : 7-5 6-3
Winner : Rafael Nadal - Odds - 1.7 - Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-3 6-1
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 1.8 - Australian Open - Melbourne - Surface type, Hard - Score : 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-7(5) 7-5
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 1.7 - U.S. Open - New York - Surface type, Hard - Score : 6-2 6-4 6-7(3) 6-1
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 2.52 - Wimbledon - London - Surface type, Grass - Score : 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 3.12 - Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome - Surface type, Clay - Score : 6-4 6-4
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 3.52 - Mutua Madrilena Madrid Open - Madrid - Surface type, Clay - Score : 7-5 6-4
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 2.34 - Sony Ericsson Open - Miami - Surface type, Hard - Score : 4-6 6-3 7-6(4)
Winner : Novak Djokovic - Odds - 1.86 - BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells - Surface type, Hard - Score : 4-6 6-3 6-2
Happy to be on Nole for this one. The price of 2.6 for Nole is too long. This is a clear mis-pricing. The market has failed to take into account Nole's improvement. He's world number one now, he's beaten Rafa on clay several times, he can dethrone Rafa today.
Everyone's expecting a close one, but I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic got a straight sets win.
Everyone's expecting a close one, but I wouldn't be surprised if Djokovic got a straight sets win.
Your're right i've just taken some of the 2.84, he'll surely trade lower at some point in the match.Zenyatta wrote:Happy to be on Nole for this one. The price of 2.6 for Nole is too long. This is a clear mis-pricing.
EDIT : He's just missed 2 backhands BP to Rafa
I held my nerve but next break-point to Rafa and i'm out.Stats suggest Nole hasn't found a way through, but physically he should come back into it as the match progresses.Zenyatta wrote:Djok hanging in there fighting well but I don't like his chances. Rafa looks be on fire. Should I cut here?