U.S Open 2013
Text commentary - Sorry for the formatting, but maybe gives you a flavour of an epic game.
Game
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka aims a fine serve at T, Djokovic only manages to touch it.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Fine serve, Djokovic is unable to return it.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! High kick serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, testing rally, Djokovic comes forth and smashes a forehand winner.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka hits a good serve, Djokovic struggles with it.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka aims a bodyline serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, brief rally, Wawrinka goes for a forehand down the line but catches the net.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka aims a high kick serve, Djokovic puts back a forehand return, extended rally, Wawrinka cracks a backhand winner down the line.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Slice serve, Djokovic is unable to return it.
Fault. First Fault.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Fine serve, Djokovic works a backhand return, lengthy exchange between the players, Wawrinka hits a backhand down the line but misses the court.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka aims a high kick serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, good rally, Wawrinka sends a forehand outside the court.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Sharp angled slice serve, Djokovic returns a forehand return, couple of shots exchanged, Djokovic kicks a backhand down the line out of the court.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka serves a high kick serve, Djokovic crafts a backhand return, brief rally, Wawrinka pushes a backhand long in the rally.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka arrows a bodyline serve, Djokovic delivers a backhand return, Wawrinka hits a forehand winner down the line.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka hits a slice serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, couple of shots exchanged, Wawrinka cross-court backhand lands at the net.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka arrows a bodyline serve, Djokovic struggles with it.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka goes for a out-wide serve, Djokovic delivers a backhand return, huge rally, Wawrinka slaps a forehand winner down the line.
Fault. First Fault.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! High kick serve, Djokovic returns a quick forehand return, testing rally, Wawrinka forehand is unable to clear the net.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Good serve sent at T, Djokovic delivers a forehand return, good rally, Djokovic backhand fails to clear the net.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Double Fault.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka arrows a bodyline serve, Djokovic struggles with it.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka serves a good one, Djokovic puts back a forehand return, extended rally, Wawrinka kicks a backhand down the line out of the court.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka serves a slice serve, Djokovic works a backhand return, brief rally, Wawrinka smacks a forehand winner down the line.
Fault. First Fault.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Quick serve pointed at T, Djokovic returns a backhand return, good rally, Wawrinka runs to the net, crafts a backhand volley but misses the target.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Double Fault.
Fault. First Fault.
40
30
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka aims a high kick serve, Djokovic delivers a forehand return, good rally, Wawrinka hits a forehand winner down the line.
30
30
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Quick serve, Djokovic returns a forehand return, huge rally, Djokovic whips a backhand cross-court winner.
Fault. First Fault.
30
15
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Good serve in the middle, Djokovic crafts a forehand return, long rally, Wawrinka pushes a backhand long in the rally.
Fault. First Fault.
30
0
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Fine serve placed at T, Djokovic returns a quick forehand return, couple of shots exchanged, Djokovic cross-court backhand lands at the net.
15
0
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Massive serve in the middle. ACE !!!
Game
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka aims a fine serve at T, Djokovic only manages to touch it.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Fine serve, Djokovic is unable to return it.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! High kick serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, testing rally, Djokovic comes forth and smashes a forehand winner.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka hits a good serve, Djokovic struggles with it.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka aims a bodyline serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, brief rally, Wawrinka goes for a forehand down the line but catches the net.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka aims a high kick serve, Djokovic puts back a forehand return, extended rally, Wawrinka cracks a backhand winner down the line.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Slice serve, Djokovic is unable to return it.
Fault. First Fault.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Fine serve, Djokovic works a backhand return, lengthy exchange between the players, Wawrinka hits a backhand down the line but misses the court.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka aims a high kick serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, good rally, Wawrinka sends a forehand outside the court.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Sharp angled slice serve, Djokovic returns a forehand return, couple of shots exchanged, Djokovic kicks a backhand down the line out of the court.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka serves a high kick serve, Djokovic crafts a backhand return, brief rally, Wawrinka pushes a backhand long in the rally.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka arrows a bodyline serve, Djokovic delivers a backhand return, Wawrinka hits a forehand winner down the line.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka hits a slice serve, Djokovic returns a backhand return, couple of shots exchanged, Wawrinka cross-court backhand lands at the net.
Fault. First Fault.
A
40
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka arrows a bodyline serve, Djokovic struggles with it.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka goes for a out-wide serve, Djokovic delivers a backhand return, huge rally, Wawrinka slaps a forehand winner down the line.
Fault. First Fault.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! High kick serve, Djokovic returns a quick forehand return, testing rally, Wawrinka forehand is unable to clear the net.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Good serve sent at T, Djokovic delivers a forehand return, good rally, Djokovic backhand fails to clear the net.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Double Fault.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka arrows a bodyline serve, Djokovic struggles with it.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Wawrinka serves a good one, Djokovic puts back a forehand return, extended rally, Wawrinka kicks a backhand down the line out of the court.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka serves a slice serve, Djokovic works a backhand return, brief rally, Wawrinka smacks a forehand winner down the line.
Fault. First Fault.
40
A
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Quick serve pointed at T, Djokovic returns a backhand return, good rally, Wawrinka runs to the net, crafts a backhand volley but misses the target.
Fault. First Fault.
Deuce
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Double Fault.
Fault. First Fault.
40
30
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Wawrinka aims a high kick serve, Djokovic delivers a forehand return, good rally, Wawrinka hits a forehand winner down the line.
30
30
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Quick serve, Djokovic returns a forehand return, huge rally, Djokovic whips a backhand cross-court winner.
Fault. First Fault.
30
15
IN, Winner: Djokovic!!! Good serve in the middle, Djokovic crafts a forehand return, long rally, Wawrinka pushes a backhand long in the rally.
Fault. First Fault.
30
0
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Fine serve placed at T, Djokovic returns a quick forehand return, couple of shots exchanged, Djokovic cross-court backhand lands at the net.
15
0
IN, Winner: Wawrinka!!! Massive serve in the middle. ACE !!!
Ok, so I don't trust Betfair anymore.....they are a bunch of lying fuckers
However, I'm now noticing occasions which is making exchange trading impossible for the average joe
They are clearly giving preference to certain traders, maybe even themselves in the order of bets being matched.
Tomorrow's final with Serena vs Azarenka - when I entered the market to lay Serena at 1.27, there was 2.4k matched at 1.27 - there is now 9.1 which means 3.3k has been taken at 1.27. That means I should have been matched, because I entered the market behind £2200 being offered at 1.27
Deceitful pieces of shit
However, I'm now noticing occasions which is making exchange trading impossible for the average joe
They are clearly giving preference to certain traders, maybe even themselves in the order of bets being matched.
Tomorrow's final with Serena vs Azarenka - when I entered the market to lay Serena at 1.27, there was 2.4k matched at 1.27 - there is now 9.1 which means 3.3k has been taken at 1.27. That means I should have been matched, because I entered the market behind £2200 being offered at 1.27
Deceitful pieces of shit
I'm always suspicious of Betfair nowadays 
But I think it's really hard to work out on Tennis what is getting matched and where. Mainly because of cross matching. It's perfectly possible to be sat in the front of the queue but still not get matched because it's taking money form the other side.
I've been keen to catch an accurate view of the market, but keep getting tripped up by cross matching. I suspect if something where going on that would be where it was taking place but so little information comes down from Betfair as to what has been matched when and at what price it's really hard to get an accurate view on the market.
But I think it's really hard to work out on Tennis what is getting matched and where. Mainly because of cross matching. It's perfectly possible to be sat in the front of the queue but still not get matched because it's taking money form the other side.
I've been keen to catch an accurate view of the market, but keep getting tripped up by cross matching. I suspect if something where going on that would be where it was taking place but so little information comes down from Betfair as to what has been matched when and at what price it's really hard to get an accurate view on the market.
Apologies, for my aggressive tone last night 
However, XM simply gives BF a green light to manipulate and cheat without any comeback from customers. If Peter Webb is struggling then everyone else has no chance!
If XM is in place, and somebody tries to place a bet on Serena 1.27, but XM steps in and gives them a lay bet on Azarenka at 4.6 instead....then that is exactly what the punter should see, and the matched figure should be added to 4.6 not 1.27, and the punter should see they have received a price of 1.2777 instead
It's all smoke and mirrors with BF
However, XM simply gives BF a green light to manipulate and cheat without any comeback from customers. If Peter Webb is struggling then everyone else has no chance!
If XM is in place, and somebody tries to place a bet on Serena 1.27, but XM steps in and gives them a lay bet on Azarenka at 4.6 instead....then that is exactly what the punter should see, and the matched figure should be added to 4.6 not 1.27, and the punter should see they have received a price of 1.2777 instead
It's all smoke and mirrors with BF
It was a cracking match, edge of the seat stuff ! (esp if you had money in the market)
Ive never really been one for trading tennis, but I had a go last night and despite putting a lot of money through, I must have been the only one to lose! (£-23)..!
I had a a few hundred green on Stan when he was trading at about 6's but decided to leave it there as I though he would drop back down to 3's
It was amazing to see the money flow in and out and I think if you are in to trading, Tennis HAS to be your portfolio of sports to trade.
Back to racing today!
Regards
Peter
PS LeTiss, I dont just think its XM. Yesterday I was looking at a screen shot of my P&L from the corresponding day in Sept 2011. Using a standard BOT, I was making approx 4 times (on average) what I make now and that was AFTER XM was introduced.
Ive checked with BDP and they tell me that the algorithm is exactly the same as it has ever been (Not that they'd tell me anyway!).
It has to be something else. Its more that just XM imo
Bu the way, for any mathematicians out there, can you tell me if XM can affect prices above 100? Ie take a 2 runner field for simplicity; if one selection is trading at 1.01 or 1.02, according to the calculation, it shouldnt change the odds on the other selection above 100? Is that right or have I mis calculated??
Ive never really been one for trading tennis, but I had a go last night and despite putting a lot of money through, I must have been the only one to lose! (£-23)..!
I had a a few hundred green on Stan when he was trading at about 6's but decided to leave it there as I though he would drop back down to 3's
It was amazing to see the money flow in and out and I think if you are in to trading, Tennis HAS to be your portfolio of sports to trade.
Back to racing today!
Regards
Peter
PS LeTiss, I dont just think its XM. Yesterday I was looking at a screen shot of my P&L from the corresponding day in Sept 2011. Using a standard BOT, I was making approx 4 times (on average) what I make now and that was AFTER XM was introduced.
Ive checked with BDP and they tell me that the algorithm is exactly the same as it has ever been (Not that they'd tell me anyway!).
It has to be something else. Its more that just XM imo
Bu the way, for any mathematicians out there, can you tell me if XM can affect prices above 100? Ie take a 2 runner field for simplicity; if one selection is trading at 1.01 or 1.02, according to the calculation, it shouldnt change the odds on the other selection above 100? Is that right or have I mis calculated??
Probably needs a different thread TBH, but I'm suspicious of how elements of the market have changed and have flagged it to Betfair. But I'm lacking the most critical part of the mix, evidence. I can see what is happening but can't explain it or show how to replicate it. But if anybody can, please let me know!
It's difficult to know why certain things don't behave the way they used to. Is it mug money now ending up on the sportsbook or something more sinister? Impossible to tell without something firm to hang your hat on.
I had a bizarre experience in May though. An old strategy of mine, a very minor one, failed on Betfair so I put it on Betdaq and it worked for the first time ever. So there even appears to be a disconnect between exchanges now.
It's difficult to know why certain things don't behave the way they used to. Is it mug money now ending up on the sportsbook or something more sinister? Impossible to tell without something firm to hang your hat on.
I had a bizarre experience in May though. An old strategy of mine, a very minor one, failed on Betfair so I put it on Betdaq and it worked for the first time ever. So there even appears to be a disconnect between exchanges now.
Yes it is hard to put your finger on it.
What I have found in play (and this is post XM remember)..running on auto
I attach a screen shot of my P&L from 3Sept2011, Ie two years to the day (almost) so you can see how things have changed dramatically. I often had to throttle the number of bets to <1000/Hour. It was firing in bets left right and centre!
An almost identical system was running on my sons account yesterday and it made just 6 bets all day! and they were all on three races at Ascot (16:05, 16:40 and 17:10?) (I sometime have to check it to make sure nothing is wrong). There are a handful of these days each month. The day after can bring in a completely different result, but it never has to be to be throttled these days?
I can get it to fire in more bets but it then becomes unprofitable as I have to relax the settings. So I leave it. It still does OK during the course of the month, so he will continue to use it.
Its almost like Super XM has kicked in? Its def not the same OR something else has changed (and it happened before the sports book too).
Its prob easier to see this change in Play than pre off because of the spreads. Pre off the spreads are so tight anyway and the changes are so subtle, it would be extremely difficult to compare todays markets with those of just a year ago?
Thats why I made/making the transgression over to manual trading
What I have found in play (and this is post XM remember)..running on auto
I attach a screen shot of my P&L from 3Sept2011, Ie two years to the day (almost) so you can see how things have changed dramatically. I often had to throttle the number of bets to <1000/Hour. It was firing in bets left right and centre!
An almost identical system was running on my sons account yesterday and it made just 6 bets all day! and they were all on three races at Ascot (16:05, 16:40 and 17:10?) (I sometime have to check it to make sure nothing is wrong). There are a handful of these days each month. The day after can bring in a completely different result, but it never has to be to be throttled these days?
I can get it to fire in more bets but it then becomes unprofitable as I have to relax the settings. So I leave it. It still does OK during the course of the month, so he will continue to use it.
Its almost like Super XM has kicked in? Its def not the same OR something else has changed (and it happened before the sports book too).
Its prob easier to see this change in Play than pre off because of the spreads. Pre off the spreads are so tight anyway and the changes are so subtle, it would be extremely difficult to compare todays markets with those of just a year ago?
Thats why I made/making the transgression over to manual trading
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