S.Africa v England test Match trading thread

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megarain
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These stats, I believe, take Sp, and use a level stake etc. There is no in-play strategy.

As the draw, usually trades between 3.5 and 4.5, pre-game, its impossible to believe, that if u just asked to lay, lower, on Day 1, u wouldnt get a better return.

I am closing in, on the historical data .. or, at least, my programmer is. Hopefully, in the next 2 weeks, I will be able to run some simulations, on what would have happened, etc, and test some theories.

Time resource, is a interesting subject. Its obvious we each have specialist subjects. There is some cross-over, but, an awful lot, is screen-time, watching the same old stuff, time and again, and watching for patterns/mistakes.
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SportBilly
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Correct Megarain ref @crunchyfrog stats.

This description by @crunchyfrog was posted on the Betfair forum:

"One £100 bet at SP (before the toss), back or lay the favourite (fav), second favourite (2fav) or outsider (dog), with laydraw and backdraw included (the draw obviously being favourite, 2nd favourite or the dog)."
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megarain
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Round 3 at the Oval, on Thursday.

Draw had been drifting, and some support for SA .. they look a better team, with Rabada for Olifeer. Watched Amla score his 311, last time round, (was it really 5 yrs ago - and the Stain remover, did the rest).

Current prices

Eng 2.24

SA 2.94

Draw 4.6

2 draws from 10, in last 10 yrs, but, generally, these games are won by a long way/morning of 5th day.

Games I have watched at Oval this yr, have generally seen good starts for batters, only for them to collapse. So, hope draw goes shorter etc, and would then get involved. No real position yet.
Berts Certs
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SA at nearly 3 seems dumb as they are clearly a better team than England atm. Saying that it could all change at the toss, not sure of weather yet either although it does seems to be set fair. Oval is usually a decent batting pitch although test matches on it usually come at the end of August, will that make a difference.
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megarain
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Eve of the test .. Eng likely to include, 2 or maybe 3 debutants.

Pitch likely to be a 'road' (early on), maybe .... Eng may incude 2 spinners

Eng 2.24

SA 3.1

Draw 4.0

Some showers (maybe), in the afternoon tomorrow. I have a v big position. It will be interesting to see, how the mkt reacts, to the Toss /Team news.
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harsh
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i backed the draw at 4.10.... let see after toss
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megarain
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5 hrs before.

Eng 2.36 .. in a better place, but, I would have both sides 2.5

Taken some profit.
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megarain
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Eng win toss and bat

Eng 2.26

SA 3.3

Draw 3.85
98lewisj
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Surely an Eng lay at 2.26.
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harsh
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nice start with greening up. i will stick with the draw. i am new to trading so dont have much idea about trading on other parties.
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megarain
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Just a terrific Test Match.

Losing 40 overs, may not be so serious, depends on how bad weather is Friday.

I can see lots of arguments for laying Eng/SA or the Draw .. it really depends how much weather u think will hit, and then how clear, Sunday is.

I sorta lean towards laying Eng at 2.16 .. SA played too well today, to lose this test.
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megarain
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Weather looking ok for today.

Eng 2.06

S.Africa 3.75

Draw 4.0
Berts Certs
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Most of those overs can be made up anyway, providing no more are lost. At the rate wickets are falling this will be done by the end of Saturday :)
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megarain
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Good test for Eng to win.

Manchester, will be interesting.
sionascaig
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