Cricket trading : Test Match Cricket

The crack of leather hitting willow...
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BetScalper
Posts: 810
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:33 pm

I apologize for a simple question.

If there is no chance of rain then on day 1 of a test match why would the draw odds shorten, as I don't think they ever would ?

Surely, either wickets tumble or runs are scored and therefore the draw odds would lengthen.

They work kinda of opposite to football match odds.

Any thought's ?

Stats101
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:55 pm

Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 pm

There are lots of potential reasons. Two include:

1. There could be a change in forecast for rain in subsequent days (days 2, 3, 4 or 5), so there is a potential reduction in overs for the complete test.

2. If there are a lot of runs scored on the first day, it may be an indication that the pitch may be very flat. This means it could be very hard for one team to get the 20 wickets required to force a result

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BetScalper
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Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:59 pm

Thanks for the response.

Must of had a lucky fluke on the England v South Africa match then.

I layed the draw before it started and just greened up for a nice profit.

Knew it couldn't be this easy. :)

gazuty
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Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:24 pm

Yep. If a team is 1/350 at the end of day 1 and the wicket is playing like a road, then draw shortens.

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BetScalper
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Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:09 am

Assuming the 5 day weather forecast is clear, are they likely to drift on day 1 morning session, though ?

gazuty
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Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:09 am

People overrate the weather imho. Follow crunchyfrog on twitter and lay the draw.

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LeTiss
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Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:44 am

gazuty wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:09 am
People overrate the weather imho. Follow crunchyfrog on twitter and lay the draw.
I disagree with that. I remember losing £400 on a trade after not paying attention to weather forecasts - I looked at the scores and saw there were 3 days left, and happily layed the draw thinking the match would definitely get a conclusion. I overlooked there being a virtual monsoon for 2 days, where play was competely wiped out.

Those listening to the forecasts took me to the cleaners

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megarain
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Location: megarainuk.blogspot.com

Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:29 pm

Its been hard to get too enthused by the Windies series in Eng, but, they definately had a chance, to strike back on Day 3.

After Eng lost the 3rd wkt, and were like 100 behind, Eng went 2.8 or so .. a long way, from the 1.18 pre-game.

At Close, Eng are 2 runs ahead .. 3 wkts down.

Eng 1.58

Windies 4.9

Draw 6.0

I sort of feel, Eng are too low, but, they should get 200, with 7 wkts left, and that would prob be enuf.

Draw looks a lay, unless Eng bat v v slowly. I would be keen to lay sub 5.0, so maybe drip feed the lays in.

Bluesky
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Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:19 am

Thanks for that megerain, its always good to see how an expert thinks about possible trades.

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megarain
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Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:23 am

Thx.

Eng 1.65 now, which looks right.

If Root goes early this Am, things might change v quick. Stokes and Ali, maybe only 2 left, u could rely on.

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