Ashes 2013

T20, IPL, Test matches or the Ashes, discuss it here.
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gazuty
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Adelaide oval = Lay the draw?

Every cricket tragic in Australia thinks the Adelaide Oval is a batting friendly run machine very likely to produce a draw. After a big first innings by either side expect the draw to come in. And yet ?

"This is a new day, new city, new ground, new and less scary pitch. Much has been made of the Adelaide Oval's history of big scores, creating the expectation of a draw. In fact, that history shows that big first innings scores do not insure against defeat here, and that most matches proceed to a result anyway; only three of the last 22 Tests here were draws.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/ear ... z2mXaan9sV"

But, is history really a guide? Read the paragraph following the one I quoted above in the article.

Oh, and I'm expecting plenty of hindsight bias in Australia's odds this test as a result of the first test. Which is also subtext of the article.
Golfer
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Not sure what to make of the prices after the 1st test, the pitch and Aus batting first.

Take historical data with a pinch of salt.

...sitting on my hands and hoping for early wickets.
burdo77
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3 dropped catches in one day, this is dream for the aussies.

In addition, It's funny how the money has come for the Aussies in a big way, yet they were outsiders 2 weeks ago.
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gazuty
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So much volatility again today.

Almost any strategy should be green.

Hope you had a good one.
tweebie1999
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I only see an Aussie win or a draw.

Australia are 273/ 5 with Clarke and Haddin at the crease. Both good players. Expect Australia to get 350 at least. If that is their score I don't see England getting much of a lead first innings. If you look at the way England won the ashes in England , it was somewhat fortunate. Now they have some inexperienced players in the top six, Carberry, Root and Stokes. Also Prior is low on runs recently. Confidence can't be great after such a poor loss in the first test and Trott having to go home. I hope I am wrong, but I will be on Australia or the draw.
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gazuty
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tweebie1999 wrote:I only see an Aussie win or a draw.

I hope I am wrong, but I will be on Australia or the draw.
I detect hindsight bias. Par first innings at Adelaide is well over 400.

Of course I hope you are right from a match outcome perspective.
burdo77
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As green as the grass
Golfer
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tweebie1999 wrote:If you look at the way England won the ashes in England , it was somewhat fortunate.
Shocking statement :shock:

Flat wicket, taking some spin. Lyon will play a big part!
tweebie1999
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Anyone see an England victory after day 2?

You have to be really careful with stats in cricket when judging an outcome.. Cricket is a massive psychological game , confidence is everything. I suggest England's is lower than player and coaching staff will have you believe.
burdo77
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On the subject of flat wicket, I'm wondering what is the best source for cricket pitch reports?
bobalski
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Location: Bobs Farm, Australia (Port Stephens)

Golfer wrote:LOLstralia :lol: :lol: :lol:
Five months is a loooong time...
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gazuty
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I might just recover all my historical football (soccer) losses on this one.

Viva la volatility of cricket.
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LeTiss
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Congrats to Australia, they are playing good aggressive cricket

England on the other hand have been really terrible - it's like watching England from the 90's.....lacking in technique and absolutely gutless
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JollyGreen
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I was with with Peter and a Bet Angel client just prior to the start of this Ashes series and we all agreed England were massively over hyped.

On here I mentioned we had only beaten mediocre teams with many of them rebuilding, especially Australia. It was mentioned that a player may figure in SPOTY.

Basically we have bored teams out, simply being negative with our field and trying to force an error from the opposition. If we drop catches or they play well then the problem is magnified as we don't set a field to get them out.

If you look at Australia they have set a field and then bowled to it in order to get wickets. It is clearly working for them.

One of the things I brought up was the previous two Ashes series. We had everything go our way, the toss was won almost every time it was critical, the weather conditions worked in our favour. The weather even saved us when we clearly would have lost.

Sadly the media seem to ignore this and make them out to be unbeatable. This seems to have rubbed off on some of the players who clearly believed their own press. You have Graeme Swann glaring at fellow players if they dare to make an error, Stuart Broad spitting the dummy in the same way which eventually creates a bad atmosphere within the team. The result is nervousness and pressure which is amplified when the luck isn't going your way.
Golfer
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Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2011 10:45 pm

bobalski wrote:
Golfer wrote:LOLstralia :lol: :lol: :lol:
Five months is a loooong time...
LOL'land just doesn't have the same ring to it :D
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