Twenty20 world cup

T20, IPL, Test matches or the Ashes, discuss it here.
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

boil over of the tournament :lol: :lol:
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Unbelievable - some serious money spunked on England today
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

The same may be on the cards for aus v bang. I see the Aussies as a risk rather than reward....
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

burdo77 wrote:The same may be on the cards for aus v bang. I see the Aussies as a risk rather than reward....
Oz out to 1.5 and then straight line into the win. Finally a bit of normality :D
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

To be honest id rather it not be normal as I prefer to trade at odds lower than 1.5.

I had a thought about your comment about using models, I come to the conclusion that using a model would be useful as a guide, such as predicted score, yet hopeless at determining odds.

There so many factors that have to be taken into account that even the best model won't incorporate. Such as the par score for a pitch, as u have seen there have been winning scores of 120 ie Sri v nz, yet on other days
On the same pitch loosing score was 170. How do u determine a par score? I'd say it's hard. An effective model would have to be dependant rather than independent for example, aus form illustrates they would have a high par score, however their scoring ability would be dependant on the their ability to handle the spin, which history has shown they can't handle.

The odds in cricket are set by what should happen rather than is actually happening, that's why I believe there is such good value in cricket odds.
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