Twenty20 world cup

T20, IPL, Test matches or the Ashes, discuss it here.
steven1976
Posts: 1744
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am

I did nice on that game. I don't know cricket but it was down at around 1.1 with 10 balls left and it just seemed far to low. Even needing a 4 off the last bowl I thought the odds seemed quite low. Its good fun watching the 20/20
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

I actually follow Mark on Twitter and he's always been really helpful whenever I've asked him something.

He uses a fairly complex model to trade cricket though.
Hi Consty, Im wondering if you have his model, or where i could see it?

I understand a model is important for the 1st innings, however wouldn't duckworth lewis be better for the 2nd???
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Sorry I've not seen it in any great detail or have ever had access to it. He used to post screenshots of his models and their projections whilst trading a match. He's stopped doing that now and tends to just offer his view on how he thinks a match may pan out. I remember him using some kind of chase model for the 2nd innings though.
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

My lay at 1.04 looking good :D
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BJGardner
Posts: 312
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:09 am

Go mighty Dutch
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burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

iv already greened out bj, i love laying these early short prices! :D :D :D
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BJGardner
Posts: 312
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:09 am

Really enjoy playing about with 20/20 nice green on this now :D
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

Southies massively over-valued, however not getting involved due to RSA class.
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

WOW, ENG have gone from 1.03 to 1.8, they are in deep trouble if they loose one more....
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

burdo77 wrote:WOW, ENG have gone from 1.03 to 1.8, they are in deep trouble if they loose one more....
England now approaching 4.0 and a choke of New Zealand proportions beckons...
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

boil over of the tournament :lol: :lol:
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Unbelievable - some serious money spunked on England today
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

The same may be on the cards for aus v bang. I see the Aussies as a risk rather than reward....
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

burdo77 wrote:The same may be on the cards for aus v bang. I see the Aussies as a risk rather than reward....
Oz out to 1.5 and then straight line into the win. Finally a bit of normality :D
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

To be honest id rather it not be normal as I prefer to trade at odds lower than 1.5.

I had a thought about your comment about using models, I come to the conclusion that using a model would be useful as a guide, such as predicted score, yet hopeless at determining odds.

There so many factors that have to be taken into account that even the best model won't incorporate. Such as the par score for a pitch, as u have seen there have been winning scores of 120 ie Sri v nz, yet on other days
On the same pitch loosing score was 170. How do u determine a par score? I'd say it's hard. An effective model would have to be dependant rather than independent for example, aus form illustrates they would have a high par score, however their scoring ability would be dependant on the their ability to handle the spin, which history has shown they can't handle.

The odds in cricket are set by what should happen rather than is actually happening, that's why I believe there is such good value in cricket odds.
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