Twenty20 world cup
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- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
I did nice on that game. I don't know cricket but it was down at around 1.1 with 10 balls left and it just seemed far to low. Even needing a 4 off the last bowl I thought the odds seemed quite low. Its good fun watching the 20/20
Hi Consty, Im wondering if you have his model, or where i could see it?I actually follow Mark on Twitter and he's always been really helpful whenever I've asked him something.
He uses a fairly complex model to trade cricket though.
I understand a model is important for the 1st innings, however wouldn't duckworth lewis be better for the 2nd???
Sorry I've not seen it in any great detail or have ever had access to it. He used to post screenshots of his models and their projections whilst trading a match. He's stopped doing that now and tends to just offer his view on how he thinks a match may pan out. I remember him using some kind of chase model for the 2nd innings though.
To be honest id rather it not be normal as I prefer to trade at odds lower than 1.5.
I had a thought about your comment about using models, I come to the conclusion that using a model would be useful as a guide, such as predicted score, yet hopeless at determining odds.
There so many factors that have to be taken into account that even the best model won't incorporate. Such as the par score for a pitch, as u have seen there have been winning scores of 120 ie Sri v nz, yet on other days
On the same pitch loosing score was 170. How do u determine a par score? I'd say it's hard. An effective model would have to be dependant rather than independent for example, aus form illustrates they would have a high par score, however their scoring ability would be dependant on the their ability to handle the spin, which history has shown they can't handle.
The odds in cricket are set by what should happen rather than is actually happening, that's why I believe there is such good value in cricket odds.
I had a thought about your comment about using models, I come to the conclusion that using a model would be useful as a guide, such as predicted score, yet hopeless at determining odds.
There so many factors that have to be taken into account that even the best model won't incorporate. Such as the par score for a pitch, as u have seen there have been winning scores of 120 ie Sri v nz, yet on other days
On the same pitch loosing score was 170. How do u determine a par score? I'd say it's hard. An effective model would have to be dependant rather than independent for example, aus form illustrates they would have a high par score, however their scoring ability would be dependant on the their ability to handle the spin, which history has shown they can't handle.
The odds in cricket are set by what should happen rather than is actually happening, that's why I believe there is such good value in cricket odds.