Today's Greyhounds
I was testing a greyhound dutching bot a few days ago. I decided to test it with small stakes on a couple of races. I set it to dutch to a book % of £6. It won on the 1st 2 races. But I quickly realised that what it had done was backed 1 or 2 gtreyhounds for about 75p. I was'nt sure if this would cause problems with Betfair minimum stake rules so I upped the stake to book % to £24. Again the first couple of races won I was up about £50. I loaded up an hour's worth of dog races and went off to do something. When I came back 45 minutes later I was down £100 from where I'd started at the begining of the experiment! I realised I needed to tweak the bot. A couple of races were just about to go off and there were 2 more that had been loaded up by the bot but had been delayed for about 20 minutes. fortunately these races won and I ended up breaking even.
I tested the bot the next day and lost another £60. I realised that the problem was when you have 3 co-favourites in the ordinary betting at say 3/1. This may not be reflected on Betfair or you could have an 11/4 favourite and 3/1 second favourite but they're the other way round on Betfair.
I find I can execute the strategy better when I can compare the bookies odds with Betfair rather than automating it.
I tested the bot the next day and lost another £60. I realised that the problem was when you have 3 co-favourites in the ordinary betting at say 3/1. This may not be reflected on Betfair or you could have an 11/4 favourite and 3/1 second favourite but they're the other way round on Betfair.
I find I can execute the strategy better when I can compare the bookies odds with Betfair rather than automating it.
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BlackHat Betting
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How is your bot working out for you now?PeterLe wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:03 pmThe Greyhound market is worth looking for anyone using automation...
Ive automated this using a variation of a file Dallas uploaded. Thank you Dallas (although Id rather not say which one as its easy to reproduce
Ive only been running this for a couple of weeks as a trial, but early indications are it is positive when compared with the actual SP results..
Anyway, Ive often wondered if anyone is having good results with modified version of Dallas files. So touch wood this is an example.
Produced circa £370 in the last couple of weeks, yesterday was terrible, but its bounced back today. 100% Guardian Automation
Early days, big swings; and I dont know whether this will fly yet.. but optimistic (just ported it to the Horse racing market too for testing)..
Anyway feedback for Dallas - appreciate all the examples you upload
Regards
Peter
4700 bets in total, this is the equity curve.BlackHat Betting wrote: ↑Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:33 pmHow is your bot working out for you now?PeterLe wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:03 pmThe Greyhound market is worth looking for anyone using automation...
Ive automated this using a variation of a file Dallas uploaded. Thank you Dallas (although Id rather not say which one as its easy to reproduce
Ive only been running this for a couple of weeks as a trial, but early indications are it is positive when compared with the actual SP results..
Anyway, Ive often wondered if anyone is having good results with modified version of Dallas files. So touch wood this is an example.
Produced circa £370 in the last couple of weeks, yesterday was terrible, but its bounced back today. 100% Guardian Automation
Early days, big swings; and I dont know whether this will fly yet.. but optimistic (just ported it to the Horse racing market too for testing)..
Anyway feedback for Dallas - appreciate all the examples you upload
Regards
Peter
II need to do some analysis really to see how it compared t the market in general, I just haven't had time with other things going on in the back ground.
Shout out to Xitan, who recently helped me out with analysis pointers on another horse racing system Im running (ie monte carlo etc). So Ill use those methods to check this out too, when I get chance
if noting else, helps with churn and Cashrace
Regards
Peter
PS, A very common theme on the forum is "How many bets do you need to know whether a system is profitable"...well 4700 bets in, I still dont know (yet)
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spreadbetting
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If it's making a profit why scrap it? How long were those 17,000 markets over? We're probably all following the same strategy from a posting off the forum
Yes
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ShaunWhite
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I think that common question is flawed and misses a key factor. You're not the only one in the market. Other people are starting and stopping strategies or looking out for patterns and adapting. It's a moving target. I started running one in early May, who's to say I'm not affecting yours, or that if you stop yours then mine would perform better. Dog markets especially are tiny and it doesn't take much to rock the boat. You'll little corner shop might be ticking along just fine, until Tesco open a shop next door.
Everyone has gotten in the greyhounds game eh. Well done for making it work. I've tried greyhounds on multiple occasions to no avail. I guess I need more data, patience and hard work. As always my inbox is open to little hints and pearls of wisdomShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:34 pmI think that common question is flawed and misses a key factor. You're not the only one in the market. Other people are starting and stopping strategies or looking out for patterns and adapting. It's a moving target. I started running one in early May, who's to say I'm not affecting yours, or that if you stop yours then mine would perform better. Dog markets especially are tiny and it doesn't take much to rock the boat. You'll little corner shop might be ticking along just fine, until Tesco open a shop next door.
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ruthlessimon
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As well as time period. Cos there are quite a few valid strategies with <500 bets a yr, & waiting 10yrs to confirm it... no thanks!! Not everyone trades high frequency strategies.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:34 pmI think that common question is flawed and misses a key factor.
Personally, I value the "shape" of the equity curve very highly (I like seeing roughly consistent gains & drawdowns)
I don't care how many bets, we start seeing a downward concave.. maybe Tesco's moving in
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ShaunWhite
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Time is good point, I'd guess that dogs might have the highest trader:punter ratio of any mainstream market so would be heaviliy influenced by who's doing what. Given the same number of picks, you'd be more confident in a strategy that lasted all year than one that lasted all afternoon.