Memphis sometimes inhabits a world of his own.
You can download the data back to 2012 from here https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
I think nigel stuck up some excel webscraper a while back to automate it.
Greyhound's By Rank
He is basically saying if I back a dog in every race tomorrow at odds of 11 with £10 I will be around £1000 up at the end of the day
If only it were that easy!
Just thought I would point it out before sombody with little experience takes it at face value and loses a load of money
If only it were that easy!
Just thought I would point it out before sombody with little experience takes it at face value and loses a load of money
- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2162
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
You can download the data back to 2012 from here https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
[/quote]
thats a lot of downloading
[/quote]
thats a lot of downloading
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Hi,
Do certain types of races throw up more outsiders winning than the top 2 in the odds ?
Like OR or other grade level ?
Where would I find that information from ?
Cheers,
Do certain types of races throw up more outsiders winning than the top 2 in the odds ?
Like OR or other grade level ?
Where would I find that information from ?
Cheers,
-
- Posts: 243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am
hi all,
I did a little bit of research for greyhounds on the web a while ago, some average figures I came up with are,
The favourite wins 30 - 35% of the time. (dt888 mentioned earlier in this thread the figure is 32%)
The 2nd fav wins 16 -18% of the time ( so I assumed 17% would be a good average)
The 2 outsiders, (5th and 6th favourite) win 5-6% of races.
Therefore.........1st fav, 2nd fav,, 5th, and 6th fav are winning about 54-55% of races.
Therefore, the 3rd and 4th fav must be winning about 45-46% of the races, As these two dogs can usually be backed on betfair at odds greater than 5/1, sometimes even 6 ,7 ,8/1 plus, backing both the 3rd and 4th fav every race should result in a profit, ............so I put a bot together to do just that.
As usual, it didn't work, lost money, back to the drawing board !
Have a nice day!
I did a little bit of research for greyhounds on the web a while ago, some average figures I came up with are,
The favourite wins 30 - 35% of the time. (dt888 mentioned earlier in this thread the figure is 32%)
The 2nd fav wins 16 -18% of the time ( so I assumed 17% would be a good average)
The 2 outsiders, (5th and 6th favourite) win 5-6% of races.
Therefore.........1st fav, 2nd fav,, 5th, and 6th fav are winning about 54-55% of races.
Therefore, the 3rd and 4th fav must be winning about 45-46% of the races, As these two dogs can usually be backed on betfair at odds greater than 5/1, sometimes even 6 ,7 ,8/1 plus, backing both the 3rd and 4th fav every race should result in a profit, ............so I put a bot together to do just that.
As usual, it didn't work, lost money, back to the drawing board !
Have a nice day!
Wow thanks for thatMemphisFlash wrote: ↑Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:11 pmit doesnt matter what the odds are, each dog that is entered in the race Statistically has a 1 in 6 chance of winning
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Interesting.eatyourgreens wrote: ↑Wed May 09, 2018 10:25 amhi all,
I did a little bit of research for greyhounds on the web a while ago, some average figures I came up with are,
The favourite wins 30 - 35% of the time. (dt888 mentioned earlier in this thread the figure is 32%)
The 2nd fav wins 16 -18% of the time ( so I assumed 17% would be a good average)
The 2 outsiders, (5th and 6th favourite) win 5-6% of races.
Therefore.........1st fav, 2nd fav,, 5th, and 6th fav are winning about 54-55% of races.
Therefore, the 3rd and 4th fav must be winning about 45-46% of the races, As these two dogs can usually be backed on betfair at odds greater than 5/1, sometimes even 6 ,7 ,8/1 plus, backing both the 3rd and 4th fav every race should result in a profit, ............so I put a bot together to do just that.
As usual, it didn't work, lost money, back to the drawing board !
Have a nice day!
But, again, what would be good is a breakdown by race type. As it could be that favourites win more at Grade 1 or Grade 2 type races but don't do so well at OR or Grade 3 type races etc etc.
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
I found these on the Web.
Interesting results.....
Interesting results.....
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
What stands out is:
Open Races at Romford
- Favourite wins 42.85% of races.
- If the Favourite is in Trap 5 only 22.2% of races
- If the Favourite is in Trap 6 then its 60% of races
Looking at the stats it would make sense to back the favourite if its running in Trap 2, Trap 4 or Trap 6 where the win rate is much higher.
Could be an anomaly ?
Also,
Graded Races
- At Kinsley Favourite wins 25.9% of races
- At Poole Favourite wins 36.5% of races
At Graded Races, Poole has the highest number of favourites winning (36.6%) but if there in Traps 4 and 6 its above 40%
-
- Posts: 243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am
I came across that site when I was looking at stats a while back and noticed the points you mentioned, maybe I should spend more time delving deeper but to start removing/nominating trap no's etc. seemed to defeat the object of automation, instead i went for the trial and error method, to try to get a generic bot together to apply to all races, sadly though, resulting in more errors
Ive been running a simple £2 back/lay scalping bot this morn, it can make 5 - 25p a race, I was £5.30 up in the first 90 minutes this morning, then it goes south. ( currently £1 down)
I've had the same (ish) results on most things Ive tried with greyhound scalping, half the races will green up 10 -25p pre start time,...............the other half can be 10 - 40p in red at start time, if this can be left for 30 or so seconds, it quite often comes back to profit and greens up ok, but then risking it that long it can easily go suspended, thats what wiped out my £5.30, a £2 lay bet still in market after race starts...............just cant find the sweet spot !
If I get there I'll let you know, good luck with your stat hunting
have a nice day!
Ive been running a simple £2 back/lay scalping bot this morn, it can make 5 - 25p a race, I was £5.30 up in the first 90 minutes this morning, then it goes south. ( currently £1 down)
I've had the same (ish) results on most things Ive tried with greyhound scalping, half the races will green up 10 -25p pre start time,...............the other half can be 10 - 40p in red at start time, if this can be left for 30 or so seconds, it quite often comes back to profit and greens up ok, but then risking it that long it can easily go suspended, thats what wiped out my £5.30, a £2 lay bet still in market after race starts...............just cant find the sweet spot !
If I get there I'll let you know, good luck with your stat hunting
have a nice day!
You can set your closing bet to take SP, but remember about sp bet minimum size.eatyourgreens wrote: ↑Wed May 09, 2018 1:32 pmI came across that site when I was looking at stats a while back and noticed the points you mentioned, maybe I should spend more time delving deeper but to start removing/nominating trap no's etc. seemed to defeat the object of automation, instead i went for the trial and error method, to try to get a generic bot together to apply to all races, sadly though, resulting in more errors
Ive been running a simple £2 back/lay scalping bot this morn, it can make 5 - 25p a race, I was £5.30 up in the first 90 minutes this morning, then it goes south. ( currently £1 down)
I've had the same (ish) results on most things Ive tried with greyhound scalping, half the races will green up 10 -25p pre start time,...............the other half can be 10 - 40p in red at start time, if this can be left for 30 or so seconds, it quite often comes back to profit and greens up ok, but then risking it that long it can easily go suspended, thats what wiped out my £5.30, a £2 lay bet still in market after race starts...............just cant find the sweet spot !
If I get there I'll let you know, good luck with your stat hunting
have a nice day!
-
- Posts: 243
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am
hi,
thanx to napschnap for input,
I have tried taking sp using the rule "take sp all unmatched bets" it doesn;t always get filled.
What is the minimum stake size for taking sp? do all greyhound races take sp bets, or is it only available at certain meetings?
Thanx for any help,
Have a nice day!
thanx to napschnap for input,
I have tried taking sp using the rule "take sp all unmatched bets" it doesn;t always get filled.
What is the minimum stake size for taking sp? do all greyhound races take sp bets, or is it only available at certain meetings?
Thanx for any help,
Have a nice day!
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
I used other software a few years ago.
As a member of the forum there were some interesting discussions on laying greyhounds and recovery settings...off the top of my head the biggest thread involved laying 3rd favourites up to a maximum odds of 4.70 in recovery. Micro stakes were used and there were long sequences, months of wins, until the proverbial 5 in a row would occur to wipe out their bankrolls. I believe a member even sold a system on the internet using BBP settings.
Other discussions involved how high some of the outsiders were compared to the actual SP.
eg: 7/2 = 12.00, 5/1 = 20.00...etc
Logically there must be some value there somewhere as they also used to win a fair share of races over time. I would assume some form of selectivity is required long term.
Admittedly I haven't looked at greyhounds for a while as other sports have taken over my interest.
As a member of the forum there were some interesting discussions on laying greyhounds and recovery settings...off the top of my head the biggest thread involved laying 3rd favourites up to a maximum odds of 4.70 in recovery. Micro stakes were used and there were long sequences, months of wins, until the proverbial 5 in a row would occur to wipe out their bankrolls. I believe a member even sold a system on the internet using BBP settings.
Other discussions involved how high some of the outsiders were compared to the actual SP.
eg: 7/2 = 12.00, 5/1 = 20.00...etc
Logically there must be some value there somewhere as they also used to win a fair share of races over time. I would assume some form of selectivity is required long term.
Admittedly I haven't looked at greyhounds for a while as other sports have taken over my interest.
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- Posts: 1
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 3:34 pm
Hi ,I’m new to automation and I’m struggling , I’m trying to place a lay bet when the price drifts a certain amount of ticks over a certain amount of time then. Could someone point me in the right direction. Cheers