Eliminate race type

We've gone to the dogs.
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toogoodtobetrue
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:47 pm

Hi All
Does anyone know if automated rules allows for the elimination of "race types".
I have a successful greyhound rule, but a particular race type (A3) keeps the
profits down. As this bot runs on all races from 8 am to 10 pm I would like the
rule to disregard these races if possible
Thanks in advance
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

You can't do this in automation but it would be quite easy in Excel.

The other alternative is to use the market selection screen and a bit of logic to only populate the markets with the ones you want to target excluding races you don't want.

For example: -

"greyhound and not a3 and m and not (AUS)"

Will bring up races that are not in Australia and are not A3 races
toogoodtobetrue
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:47 pm

Thanks Euler
I have been doing this manually, was looking to automate the whole process as I am a lazy sod.
Do you think it is worth putting it forward as a suggestion as you could use the text string of the event
as a condition or a signal. You could filter all events throughout the day ie, include/exclude
"Novice", "A3", "Sandown", "Hrd"
Thanks anyway
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3206
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Euler got there before me (not surprising) :)

Reading the OP info, one thing sprung to mind when I followed greyhounds "back in the day."

Of course I don't know how many races you've looked at to establish that the A3 races are a problem. What you may find that over time, the A2's and A1's may eventually do the same. This bracket is full of open race types that are on the downgrade, but still retain some ability. Also the rising stars with vast improvement that are in the mix too. (harder to grade)

Horse racing seems to show a similar pattern, it seems the ordinary ones that often run against each other, are at the mercy of the handicapper in order to win a race now and again. (a little easier to anticipate)
toogoodtobetrue
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:47 pm

Thanks wearthefoxhat
That information is very useful.
I just stumbled on to my current strategy for dogs as I have been trading the nags
with zero profit or loss for the last year and got a bit fed up with it.
I seem to lose on certain types of races and tracks, but it is consistent.
As you have traded the dogs "back in the day" do you know of any good websites with reliable stats
on the dogs as my knowledge is very poor.
Thanks
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
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Location: Working From Home

toogoodtobetrue wrote:
Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:07 pm
do you know of any good websites with reliable stats
on the dogs as my knowledge is very poor.
Thanks
This one is quite useful
http://greyhoundstats.co.uk/index.php
toogoodtobetrue
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:47 pm

Thanks everyone, very useful.
Still think I will put the suggestion forward for us Lazy sods
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

I am using Charts to determine which races to maybe leave out based on time of day and profit/loss per race.
I have developed a strategy i call the Flying V which i ran today and it clearly shows that i should have avoided
greyhound races between 1pm and 4pm.

Enclosed chart will show what i mean even though i ended up with about £34 profit.
Race 30 was at 12.54pm
race 64 was at 15.47pm


Does anyone else use charts in this way to prepare a new strategy

Flying v.PNG
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

I agree with Memphis.

My first greyhound value betting bot is unleashed only at certain times during the day, as it clearly isn’t profitable in others. My second value betting bot is applied all day but only on certain race types.

It’s also important to come to these conclusions after you have a big enough sample, not just after 50-100 races.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Making decisions like this off what looks like 80 races? is absolute madness.

Depending on the strategy race types can obviously have an impact on a strategies pnl but time of day?
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

From my experience, time of day does have an impact.

Not so much in terms of “between these two hours”, more in terms of evening as opposed to afternoon as opposed to morning.
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

week 2.PNG

Well that didn't go quite to plan. A Few tweaks here and there to stop the Rot
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toogoodtobetrue
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2015 8:47 pm

Thanks for all of the comments
Been running this "mut" strategy for a 3 weeks now and still in the green (just), take the
points being made about times of races. Seems to me that to get a consistent and
meaningful profit I need to look into amount matched, track, time or meeting and quality
of meeting.
Will keep you posted
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

LinusP wrote:
Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:11 am
Making decisions like this off what looks like 80 races? is absolute madness.
Although the tricky issue is time frame.

Memphis's was taken over a day - which is kinda mad

But if it was taken over say, 1/2 a yr, I think an 80 sample "could" be enough i.e. it's an extremely rare (but consistent) pattern

For example, Alf N Dor, 10th Jan, 15:25.

Now, it was nice seeing Peter mention it on his feed, & I'm hoping (for my longevity ;) ) he laid it when I did. but my personal justification for laying it came about from a <100 sample (but the data was taken over a 7mth period)
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

80 is 80 whether you find them in a minute or a year. If something is rare you have to accept the outcome will be less certain.

But it depends what you're looking for though. If you're simply predicting up or down then 80 is a fair start I'd say, if you're looking for 1000/1 winners then 80 is utterly meaningless. Sample size should be proportional to what you are looking for, and if you want to find size of move, as well as up or down then 80 starts to feel a bit small. This stuff is probably week 1 of a stats degree, I think you should take a bullet for the team and find out :D http://www.open.ac.uk/courses/qualifications/q36
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