Little Experiment

We've gone to the dogs.
tootall
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:33 am

An interesting experiment but placing bet 1 minute before start time was in my opinion an error. Most money on the dogs comes in last few seconds so what was favourite at 1 minute may well be 2nd 3rd or worse by time the race starts.
Even placing bet 1 second before start sometimes can change especially if race is delayed. I have a strategy loosely based on this concept, I place a bet at 100:1 on my selection at 1 second before race it then takes SP on unmatched bet. This enables me to compare the next day with Betfair’s results at SP.
Mine is not blind there are criteria to be matched, but I do collect the results on a daily basis and surprisingly you can make money by blind selection. I only have 1 years’ worth of results but on average a selection averages £300 to £500 a month profit to £1 stakes.
Attached chart for a month on blindly backing 1 selection at £1 stake at SP.
Capture.PNG
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

tootall wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:20 am
An interesting experiment but placing bet 1 minute before start time was in my opinion an error. Most money on the dogs comes in last few seconds so what was favourite at 1 minute may well be 2nd 3rd or worse by time the race starts.
Even placing bet 1 second before start sometimes can change especially if race is delayed. I have a strategy loosely based on this concept, I place a bet at 100:1 on my selection at 1 second before race it then takes SP on unmatched bet. This enables me to compare the next day with Betfair’s results at SP.
Mine is not blind there are criteria to be matched, but I do collect the results on a daily basis and surprisingly you can make money by blind selection. I only have 1 years’ worth of results but on average a selection averages £300 to £500 a month profit to £1 stakes.
Attached chart for a month on blindly backing 1 selection at £1 stake at SP.
Capture.PNG
He probably chose the 1 minute mark as a number of races either go off early, upto 30 seconds before or races get suspended and never unsuspended well before the start.
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:59 am
probably not. i am not going to lay a 6th fav for £1 to lose say £13 when it romps in.
And the first Fav winnings were probably not enough to get into the positive either.
surely the favourite winning will always end in profit because the favourite will always be much less than 5/1 and you will have £5 returned from the other five runners. :D
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MemphisFlash
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Location: Leicester

run your own test and get back to me.
newaustralian
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:40 am

What an interesting question. You maybe able to add something to my problem
Work in progress. Laying greyhounds.
On the assumption that a large proportion of races are won by the favourites and that dogs who are in the leading pack at the first corner usually win I have(attempted) to create a method of selecting a greyhound to lay. Using the data available on Betfair I highlight in a field the two slowest starters as well as the two slowest over the distance. If a dog is on both lists it is a lay proposition. Without further restrictions, except not laying the favourite, it has proved marginally successful. However, and this is the help I required as I know little about UK greyhounds, by eliminating certain types of races ( distance and class) as well as tracks etc. the profit could be increased significantly. Would anybody have any suggestions.
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ilovepizza82
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MemphisFlash, Did you try the other days as well or was it just that one ? Did u try weekends if there are any different ?
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