ok, this is a bit of fun that i am trying today.
If i was to ask everyone what would be the best dog to make money on today by placing a £1 bet on each race, for the 1st fav, 2nd fav, 3rd fav 4th fav, 5th fav and 6th fav all day long. Which do you think will generate the most profit.
i am conducting a little experiment having ten bet angels open on my laptop,
and i think the answers will shock and surprise you. Answers and excel sheet to be uploaded tomorrow.
Little Experiment
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
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- Location: Leicester
Last edited by MemphisFlash on Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
this is just an experiment not taking any trap bias into consideration
just fav, 2nd fav etc all day long, every race.
who wins most profit?
just fav, 2nd fav etc all day long, every race.
who wins most profit?
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
as an extra, if each bet is £1, how much do you think you will make at end of day?
159 races today. lets see your guesses.
159 races today. lets see your guesses.
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
here is a little sneak preview of the sheet i am generating.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
loving these opinions. i must say i am quite surprised what is happening.
Obviously i have too much time on my hands to think of these little challenges.
Obviously i have too much time on my hands to think of these little challenges.
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
half way through the greyhound cards today, and not one of them is in profit!!!
Know nothing about greyhounds but I'd be amazed if any of them was in profit, I thought the idea was to see which loses the least.MemphisFlash wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:35 pmhalf way through the greyhound cards today, and not one of them is in profit!!!
If greyhound bookies operate similarly to horse racing, the outsiders are always grossly underpriced because bookies have little to gain by laying them, and the favourite is laid to make a loss, but at the same time it's over-backed by punters.
My guess would be the favourite or second fav will make the least loss as their odds are probably closer to their true chances than the rest. Will be interested to hear the result of your experiment.
Is that at BSP?MemphisFlash wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:22 pmhere is a little sneak preview of the sheet i am generating.
experiment.PNG
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MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
Right, the results are in and it makes pretty dismal reading.
If you employ a strategy whereby you back the fav, 2nd, fav, 3rd fav etc all day long without exception
you will lose money.
This test was done by using 6 open versions of Bet Angel. one for first fav, one for second fav etc.
At 1 minute before the off a back bet of £1 was placed into each market. no conditions on the back rule.
I had a green up rule on each market to green up >£0.10p.
The excel sheet enclosed shows the results.
The yellow boxes are when a green up occured.
The rest of the time was a straight back bet as it did not green up.
Now for the stats:-
6th favourite returned a P/l of -£4.60
1st favourite returned a P/l of -£17.46
3rd favourite returned a P/l of -£18.49
2nd favourite returned a P/l of -£48.96
5th favourite returned a P/l of -£61.59
4th favourite returned a P/l of -£73.80
On the sheet i have recorded the odds that were taken at the time, blue being back and orange being lay.
I did not interefere with any of the markets, just let it do it's thing but unfortunately i missed out the meeting at Poole.
The 6th fav won 12 out of 138 races (there were 8 races where there was no 6th favourite as only 5 runners) which is 8%.
Of these 12 winners 3 of them were fully green.
Had they not been greened up the 6th favourite would have returned a healty P/L of £10.74
Have a look at the sheet if you want to draw your own conclusions.
The figures at the bottom of sheet 2 shows who was in the lead From Midday onwards.
If you employ a strategy whereby you back the fav, 2nd, fav, 3rd fav etc all day long without exception
you will lose money.
This test was done by using 6 open versions of Bet Angel. one for first fav, one for second fav etc.
At 1 minute before the off a back bet of £1 was placed into each market. no conditions on the back rule.
I had a green up rule on each market to green up >£0.10p.
The excel sheet enclosed shows the results.
The yellow boxes are when a green up occured.
The rest of the time was a straight back bet as it did not green up.
Now for the stats:-
6th favourite returned a P/l of -£4.60
1st favourite returned a P/l of -£17.46
3rd favourite returned a P/l of -£18.49
2nd favourite returned a P/l of -£48.96
5th favourite returned a P/l of -£61.59
4th favourite returned a P/l of -£73.80
On the sheet i have recorded the odds that were taken at the time, blue being back and orange being lay.
I did not interefere with any of the markets, just let it do it's thing but unfortunately i missed out the meeting at Poole.
The 6th fav won 12 out of 138 races (there were 8 races where there was no 6th favourite as only 5 runners) which is 8%.
Of these 12 winners 3 of them were fully green.
Had they not been greened up the 6th favourite would have returned a healty P/L of £10.74
Have a look at the sheet if you want to draw your own conclusions.
The figures at the bottom of sheet 2 shows who was in the lead From Midday onwards.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1166
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
This reminds me of a system I have that dutches the place market on the 2 outside dogs when they are above a certain figure. With a staking system and decent bank size and starting at minimum bets, it's sometimes / often possible to double the bank before going bust more frequently than the reverse.
The principle being that the 5th and 6th favourite are often very healthy odds to win (15+) and therefore quite generous even to place and get their nose into second place. This happens a surprising number of times. Of course the losing streaks can be quite long, so the DOB approach seems to work best I find, as opposed to any Kelly criterion loss recovery that can get very scary very fast.
CS
The principle being that the 5th and 6th favourite are often very healthy odds to win (15+) and therefore quite generous even to place and get their nose into second place. This happens a surprising number of times. Of course the losing streaks can be quite long, so the DOB approach seems to work best I find, as opposed to any Kelly criterion loss recovery that can get very scary very fast.
CS