Market manipulation on Betfair

News, chat and debate about the Betfair betting exchange.
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jimibt
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boardrep wrote:Now was that my connection or .....in the 18.20 at Stratford ...a perfect race to trade pre race and in play yet as soon as the favourite faltered so did Bet Angel and Betfair ......mmmm maybe thats the fish cooking in the kitchen ..I feel sorry for new users who maybe dont have contingency
i have had quite a few similar occurrences on my trades today. trades that should green out effortlessly on a given signal are not being honoured and then i'm obviously having to invoke my red out scenario. have pulled back a bit to examine this in more detail as this has derailed a seemingly neat rule that hits a known sweetspot with good results 80-90% of the time
steven1976
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Any input yet Euler? You pointed me to the thread, so also hoping for your input.
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harsh
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puzzling
dirkg
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Interesting thread to read.
I wonder: is there regulation out there governing the market's integrity? I mean, stock markets are highly regulated and market manipulation is prohibited. I can't find anything on betting markets though. All thoughts appreciated!
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megarain
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Some of the historical data is like a suspense novel.

There is a lot of stuff going on.
harry
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dirkg wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:27 am
Interesting thread to read.
I wonder: is there regulation out there governing the market's integrity? I mean, stock markets are highly regulated and market manipulation is prohibited. I can't find anything on betting markets though. All thoughts appreciated!
As far as I know there isn't. The relevant regulation for stock and derivatives markets is MAR (Market Abuse Regulation) , which relates to financial instruments including stocks, bonds, financial futures, interest rate futures, some swaps, options on these instruments, commodity derivatives.

This is enforced in the relevant markets by the FCA (see their definitions of market abuse here), MAR 1.2-1.9.

In theory you could see Betfair as an exchange for binary options, but in reality rather than being regulated by the FCA they're regulated by the Gambling Commission. I'm not aware of the Gambling Commission having any regulation on market integrity or abuse, though I don't know as much about this area so maybe someone who knows more can correct me here!
Trader Pat
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I think its definitely much harder now to trade if you're just starting out as there's a lot more going on in the market with some of it happening at predictable times but its something you have to adapt to and see if you can take advantage of , if you can't then just do your best to avoid it and work around it.

I've no problem with old fashioned manipulation in general be it spoofing, flashing or whatever like I said adapt and get on with it. Too many newbies expect everything to be made easy for them and if they can't understand why something happens they immediately blame other actors in the market or Betfair instead of looking at themselves and asking if they can do anything different. Trading isn't supposed to be easy when starting out but I'm glad I'm not starting out right now.
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Euler
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There is no regulation or structure in place to stop abuse as far as I am aware.

I started this thread as I had this conversation with Betfair about manipulation but they sort of shrugged their shoulders and said, what manipulation? So was interested in canvassing opinions.

My view is generally in agreement with Pat.
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Tuco
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Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:57 pm
Trading isn't supposed to be easy when starting out but I'm glad I'm not starting out right now.
...the bottom line is that nothing is easy when you're starting out - remember the first time you rode a bicycle without stabilisers?

As you become more adept, everything becomes easier.
Trader Pat
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Tuco wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 2:02 am
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:57 pm
Trading isn't supposed to be easy when starting out but I'm glad I'm not starting out right now.
...the bottom line is that nothing is easy when you're starting out - remember the first time you rode a bicycle without stabilisers?

As you become more adept, everything becomes easier.

Absolutely and that's how it should be.

Just making the point its definitely harder right now than it used to be
dirkg
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Many thanks for your thoughts on this, very insightful.
MAGTRADEUK
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Pre off seems to be the one where some really weird stuff can happen, and it isnt really clear whos doing what and when, what with people or establishments or x matching etc just a lot of algos maybe trading numbers and not as much relevance to the actual horse race, dont know, new to this. Traded financials before and thought would look at this, same sorts of things go on just got to get a grip with how dynamics of markets change.
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Shaung89
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Euler wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:29 pm
I started this thread as I had this conversation with Betfair about manipulation but they sort of shrugged their shoulders and said, what manipulation? So was interested in canvassing opinions.
Was there specific situations which you were discussing with Betfair?! The vibe I got reading your message implies there was something you didn’t agree with/like but BF just shrugged off...
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alexmr2
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hgodden wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:46 am
The manipulation is of people, traders. Building bots that dominate most of the unmatched money on several prices and then smashing through traders orders that arent its own and trying to force them to close for a loss. Creating false impressions in the market to lure traders in and then ramping the other way. Deeply studying trader's behaviours to take advantage of them. Pushing against their orders making it as difficult as possible for them to close.

...

The irony is that since PC3 came in it is much easier for an individual with lots of money and know how to dominate much of the markets and other participants here, as it has created a situation where 'they' don't have to hedge all their bets (while normal traders do) as this just creates bumpy P and L's for them over several accounts which will then increase their commissions to the point where they can avoid paying PC.

So in practical terms (especially late on in the markets where most of the real money is being bet) if you put an order in on the wrong runner and the 'market' smashes through you (or rather the person responsible smashes through you) then you can either close for a loss (and the bigger the stake the further away the price will be pushed, although this is by no means limited to large stakes, even small ones are pushed against) then as a trader you can either hedge for a loss (what we're supposed to do right? ;)) or let the bet stand, whereas on the other side the manipulators bot is happy either way, either it has forced your order into hedging against it for an instant profit for itself or, if you dont hedge, then it doesnt care as the bet will just form part of its market making and such bets will even out over time generating more commission for it.
Sorry to quote an old post but I found this interesting and have a question about some of the mentions of holding other traders in losing positions if anyone would be able to answer it?

Would a bot (or manual trader for that matter) actually be able to see someone's position in the market, or would it purely based on making an assumption from the pattern and historical human behaviour whether or not the movements were artificially influenced by the one looking to manipulate or not?
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ShaunWhite
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alexmr2 wrote:
Sat Apr 03, 2021 5:07 pm
hgodden wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:46 am
The manipulation is of people....
Would a bot (or manual trader for that matter) actually be able to see someone's position in the market.....
True to form you've zeroed in on a post that's pure speculation and you've found a conspiracy angle.
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