frustrating newbie question
This scenario happens quite frequently and kills me everytime. ex . today's first race at Tipperary. GeeGeez,ATR, Racing Post, etc say virtually nothing about Mm Sixsevei. (racing post says he has potential but Early Call is preferred) Listed as 3-4th fav, staying most of the pre race at odds around 7ish with the co favorites around 3-4. The instant I put a lay bet on Mm his odds drop an insane amount, so I'm sitting there in disbelief waiting for the odds to snap back a little because it doesn't seem to make sense. The odds never come back and the horse goes on to basically jog past the line winning by 30 lengths. wtf is going on here? If I can't figure out how to stop or at least reduce this my bankroll will be wiped out
It's a frustration that all traders encounter and have to learn to deal with psychologically.
Firstly, although it sometimes feels like it, it doesn't happen all the time - there will be times when the market dashes in your favour.
Secondly, you may want to consider using small stakes in volatile markets. Tipperary is particularly volatile. You need to consider whether to close trade for a loss or wait for the price to bounce back, but smaller liabilities gives you more freedom to wait. There are no hard-and-fast rules to trading but you might want to experiment with putting in orders a few ticks away from the current price when markets are quite changeable.
Firstly, although it sometimes feels like it, it doesn't happen all the time - there will be times when the market dashes in your favour.
Secondly, you may want to consider using small stakes in volatile markets. Tipperary is particularly volatile. You need to consider whether to close trade for a loss or wait for the price to bounce back, but smaller liabilities gives you more freedom to wait. There are no hard-and-fast rules to trading but you might want to experiment with putting in orders a few ticks away from the current price when markets are quite changeable.
as a follow up I'm also confused as to the on course vs exchange odds. There seems to be no correlation. Some times the local fav will be 2.8 or so and the exchange has it at 7 or vice versa. How can there be such a massive difference between opinions when I assume both groups (exchange and locals) know a bit about the horse racing game. I have been putting in the hours everyday and still have very few answers. Any help or guidance is very appreciated--Stef
Are you sure about that?
If that's what you've seen you could make a fortune backing that horse at 7 with the bookie and laying it for 2.5 (less commission) times as much on the exchange!
yeah I usually look at how much total money is involved in the race, but maybe I overlooked that this time. I'm only using $5 stakes but before I could even think about hedging I was down about $8 pre race and I was just stunned. I'm going to get a book or 2 about trading as a supplement because I really want this to work. It just seemed really fishy how this horse all of a sudden gets backed a ridiculous amount at the last second and then wins that easily.Derek27 wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 5:23 pmIt's a frustration that all traders encounter and have to learn to deal with psychologically.
Firstly, although it sometimes feels like it, it doesn't happen all the time - there will be times when the market dashes in your favour.
Secondly, you may want to consider using small stakes in volatile markets. Tipperary is particularly volatile. You need to consider whether to close trade for a loss or wait for the price to bounce back, but smaller liabilities gives you more freedom to wait. There are no hard-and-fast rules to trading but you might want to experiment with putting in orders a few ticks away from the current price when markets are quite changeable.
yes. It was my intention to do just what you mentioned when I first started. I realised that Bet 365,Ladbrokes, Betfair etc will have slightly diff. but comparable odds, but the actually odds that the course on the live(ish) stream can be very different. Of course I can't really do anything about it unless I'm actually at the local track
Is this very different from the Bet Angel youtube videos? Because I've gone over them many times. I'll learn from anyone who will teach.Dallas wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 5:39 pmHave you tried the Bet Angel Academy site
https://online.betangelacademy.com/
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BetScalper
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If its 2.8 locally and 7 on the exchange then its potentially a value back bet on the exchange.
If its 7 locally and 2.8 on the exchange then its potentially a value lay bet on the exchange.
However, something doesn't sound right to me. Unless the racing a Tipperary is as bent as hell or the on course bookies don't know what their doing etc.
Interesting though.
If its 7 locally and 2.8 on the exchange then its potentially a value lay bet on the exchange.
However, something doesn't sound right to me. Unless the racing a Tipperary is as bent as hell or the on course bookies don't know what their doing etc.
Interesting though.
What country are you in and what bookie was offering those odds?
You appear to be three hours behind us but UK bookies were offering around 8/1.
I used to make a fair amount of money arbing on US racing because UK bookies didn't have a clue how to price up them races so maybe you could have a similar opportunity to arb?
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BetScalper
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- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Now it Makes sense.
When you said locally, I thought you meant at the race track in Ireland.
Basically, you are being ripped off by www.hollywoodraces.com, who are offering poor odds to on-line punters in the USA and then backing them on the exchanges via a third party based overseas.
Therefore, they are win a total WIN/WIN situation, more so than a normal bookie with book over rounds etc.
They must be raking in millions!!!!!!!
Sorry to say it but you have been screwed big time....
When you said locally, I thought you meant at the race track in Ireland.
Basically, you are being ripped off by www.hollywoodraces.com, who are offering poor odds to on-line punters in the USA and then backing them on the exchanges via a third party based overseas.
Therefore, they are win a total WIN/WIN situation, more so than a normal bookie with book over rounds etc.
They must be raking in millions!!!!!!!
Sorry to say it but you have been screwed big time....
USA-east coastDerek27 wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:46 pmWhat country are you in and what bookie was offering those odds?
You appear to be three hours behind us but UK bookies were offering around 8/1.
I used to make a fair amount of money arbing on US racing because UK bookies didn't have a clue how to price up them races so maybe you could have a similar opportunity to arb?