How do we deduct comms from odds

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Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Hi,

I'm trying to work out Strike Rate nèeded against AWO (average winning odds).

If I take odds of 1.30 are the real odds I'm getting actually 1.235, due to the 5% comms on winning trades?

1.30 - 5% = 1.235

100/1.235 = 80.97%

So I need a strike rate above 80.97% to be profitable?

Thanks in advance.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

It might be useful for you to look at the edit settings menu, on the display tab is an option to display profits net of commission.
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Dadders wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:27 am
Hi,

I'm trying to work out Strike Rate nèeded against AWO (average winning odds).

If I take odds of 1.30 are the real odds I'm getting actually 1.235, due to the 5% comms on winning trades?

1.30 - 5% = 1.235

100/1.235 = 80.97%

So I need a strike rate above 80.97% to be profitable?

Thanks in advance.
Your initial math is off. You're deducting 5% from both the stake and the profit, and you're in fact only paying commission on the profit.

It is rather:

(1.3-1) * 0.95 + 1 = 1.285
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Kafkaesque wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:48 pm
Dadders wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:27 am
I'm trying to work out Strike Rate nèeded against AWO (average winning odds).
If I take odds of 1.30 are the real odds I'm getting actually 1.235, due to the 5% comms on winning trades?
Your initial math is off. You're deducting 5% from both the stake and the profit, and you're in fact only paying commission on the profit.

It is rather:

(1.3-1) * 0.95 + 1 = 1.285
It depends on how your wins/loses are distributed. Any losses in the same market are also deducted from your gross profit before commission is calculated.

Compare...
Market 1 - Runner A, +10
Market 1 - Runner B, -5
with...
Market 1 - Runner A, +10
Market 2 - Runner B, -5

The first one results in 25p commission, the second one is 50p commission.

Similar applies with
Market 1 - Trade 1, +10
Market 1 - Trade 2, -5
and...
Market 1 - Trade 1, +10
Market 2 - Trade 1, -5

Thing is, most people work out their SR as a % of winning markets, not as a % of winning trades. Aggregating by market seems like an arbitary way to do it to me and no more meaningful than aggregating all the trades in an hour or in a week. You're told not to look at the P&L for individual markets, and then in the next breath told that one measure of your effectivness depends on whether each market is +ve or -ve. I think the appetite for measuring individual trade SR has been diminished because the leading figures on here have a very specific style which makes quantifying that irrelevent or impossible.

For a new person, or someone with a different style who makes 2 distinct trades in a market, 1 good and 1 bad; I'd say they had an SR of 50%, even if the net market figure is -10p and some would call that a 0%. SR I feel is a measure that encourages poor trading and chasing of losses/capping wins if you measure it per market. SR is vanity and RoI is sanity, to paraphrase a familiar saying.
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Thank you for the responses

(1.3-1) * 0.95 + 1 = 1.285 gives me a strike rate needed of 77.82%
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:25 pm
Kafkaesque wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:48 pm
Dadders wrote:
Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:27 am
I'm trying to work out Strike Rate nèeded against AWO (average winning odds).
If I take odds of 1.30 are the real odds I'm getting actually 1.235, due to the 5% comms on winning trades?
Your initial math is off. You're deducting 5% from both the stake and the profit, and you're in fact only paying commission on the profit.

It is rather:

(1.3-1) * 0.95 + 1 = 1.285
It depends on how your wins/loses are distributed. Any losses in the same market are also deducted from your gross profit before commission is calculated.

Compare...
Market 1 - Runner A, +10
Market 1 - Runner B, -5
with...
Market 1 - Runner A, +10
Market 2 - Runner B, -5

The first one results in 25p commission, the second one is 50p commission.

Similar applies with
Market 1 - Trade 1, +10
Market 1 - Trade 2, -5
and...
Market 1 - Trade 1, +10
Market 2 - Trade 1, -5

Thing is, most people work out their SR as a % of winning markets, not as a % of winning trades. Aggregating by market seems like an arbitary way to do it to me and no more meaningful than aggregating all the trades in an hour or in a week. You're told not to look at the P&L for individual markets, and then in the next breath told that one measure of your effectivness depends on whether each market is +ve or -ve. I think the appetite for measuring individual trade SR has been diminished because the leading figures on here have a very specific style which makes quantifying that irrelevent or impossible.

For a new person, or someone with a different style who makes 2 distinct trades in a market, 1 good and 1 bad; I'd say they had an SR of 50%, even if the net market figure is -10p and some would call that a 0%. SR I feel is a measure that encourages poor trading and chasing of losses/capping wins if you measure it per market. SR is vanity and RoI is sanity, to paraphrase a familiar saying.
Indeed, and I cannot disagree with you contributed, although the question was fairly basic, and I simply gave a basic response. The adjustment of calculating correctly for just one exposure in a given market was the first step, before OP could delve deeper as you're getting into. His calcs for the stuff you're putting out there would still be way off, if he was calculating commission on both stake/exposure and net profit.
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

So I have a Strat with a Strike Rate of 77%
Is this correct:

100/77 = 1.2987

(1.2987 -1) x 0.95 + 1= 1.3487

So I need to take odds over 1.34 to be profitable with a Strike Rate of 77%

Thanks in advance.
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

Dadders wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 1:39 pm
So I have a Strat with a Strike Rate of 77%
Is this correct:

100/77 = 1.2987

(1.2987 -1) x 0.95 + 1= 1.3487

So I need to take odds over 1.34 to be profitable with a Strike Rate of 77%

Thanks in advance.
Nope - you didn't work out the bit in brackets before multiplying but the answer ended up close in this case - try this ...

1) SR of 77% has loss = 100 - 77 = 23
2) 23 after commission requires pre-commission win = 23 / 95 * 100 = 24.21
3) needed profit per won event = 24.21 / 77 = .3144
4) therefore odds needed for break even or profit should be >= .3144 + 1 = 1.32
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Hmm, I'm now getting this...

(1.2987 -1) = 0.2987

0.2987 x 0.95 = 0.283765

0.283765 + 1 = 1.283765

So odds of @1.28
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

Dadders wrote:
Tue Sep 18, 2018 3:44 pm
Hmm, I'm now getting this...

(1.2987 -1) = 0.2987

0.2987 x 0.95 = 0.283765

0.283765 + 1 = 1.283765

So odds of @1.28
No ... 77 * (1.28 - 1.0) = 21.56

You have to earn a minimum of 24.21 to break even which needs nearest suitable odds of 1.32 as explained earlier.
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