Any feedback on the accuracy of soccer mystic predicted odds?

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pdenoeud
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:37 am

Hi all

in soccer mystic, there are predicted odds displayed on match odds, over/under, correct scores and total goals.
Has anybody some feedback about their accuracy? I am starting to monitor them but it's gonna take me a while before I get enough results to get a good overview.

I do not expect the odds to be exact, but if they predict with a good accuracy the trend of odds to come, that can be a good tool to trade.

Thanks in advance!
Pierre
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

pdenoeud wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:02 pm
Hi all

in soccer mystic, there are predicted odds displayed on match odds, over/under, correct scores and total goals.
Has anybody some feedback about their accuracy? I am starting to monitor them but it's gonna take me a while before I get enough results to get a good overview.

I do not expect the odds to be exact, but if they predict with a good accuracy the trend of odds to come, that can be a good tool to trade.

Thanks in advance!
Pierre
Given the work put into it, I have no doubt, it is very accurate as an average. With the last word being the operative one.

As an example if a fairly big favorite, say 1.20ish, goes 1-0 up, you'd expect the fav to look the more likely to get the second goal and for this to be reflected in the draw price the majority of matches. It is still though an average, and if the dog are pushing and looking like they might nick the next goal, it will be wildly inaccurate in the specific spot, as no model can predict an outlier.

The more a match plays out as expected, in terms of possession and chance dominance, the more accurate.
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pdenoeud
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:37 am

I was more thinking about the odds predicted for the start of the game, not the predictions in play.
Tonight, I bet on several football matches, match odds or under 2.5 goals, 1 hour before the start of the games, picking trades when the predicted odds were significantly different from the current odds and the spread was low (0.01 for all odds, under 2). I then closed the trades at the start of the matches, regardless of the result.
Here is the outcome:
2 trades with result 0
11 trades with negative result
0 trade with positive result

It is not enough to draw conslusions, but it does not look very promissing :(

PS : before some make fun of me, I did not get confused with the direction of my trades (mixing back with lay :) )
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

It's an in-play predictor, showing how the odds will likely move due to time decay and the impact following a goal

A couple of examples on how to use it can be found here
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116
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pdenoeud
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:37 am

Dallas wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:33 pm
It's an in-play predictor, showing how the odds will move due to time decay and following a goal
But there are tabs (match odds, over/under,...) which show "current" and "predicted" odds before the game start. "current" odds are indeed the best back odds currently offered. I guess "predicted" odds are the odds which shall be the odds at the start of the game, according to BA prediction algorythm, is that correct?

BTW, I chose matches with a "signal strength" of 4 or 5 only (out of 5).
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Euler
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We are looking to upgrade the model in the near future. A fair bit of work, but that should help the way you use the tool.
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pdenoeud
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2018 10:37 am

Euler wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:51 pm
We are looking to upgrade the model in the near future. A fair bit of work, but that should help the way you use the tool.
Great, thanks!
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