Insurplus?
today at Newcastle 12:15 race. Insurplus at 10.5 and about 10 min. later down to 5. Last time out 10th of 12 in a handicap at the same course nearly 2 months ago. Off the radar for Geegeez,Attheraces,Winning Warlock ,Horseinplay etc. Then gets crushed anyway. I need a grizzled veteran to make sense of this.
Sorry, still don't see anything baffling about that!
The horse was coming off a layoff and wasn't generally fancied, but obviously somebody fancied it, perhaps the connections. They may have backed it down to 5.0 but odds of 5.0 imply a 20% chance of winning. Reading the market its implied chance improved from 9% to 20%, hardly enough to be strongly confident it will run well.
I don't know how much money it took to move the price but you need to remember that many gambles are just pot-shots, nothing more than speculation that the horse may outrun his odds.
Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:57 pmSorry, still don't see anything baffling about that!
The horse was coming off a layoff and wasn't generally fancied, but obviously somebody fancied it, perhaps the connections. They may have backed it down to 5.0 but odds of 5.0 imply a 20% chance of winning. Reading the market its implied chance improved from 9% to 20%, hardly enough to be strongly confident it will run well.
I don't know how much money it took to move the price but you need to remember that many gambles are just pot-shots, nothing more than speculation that the horse may outrun his odds.
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Ok thanks-so don't read too much into it you say. I've only seen that happen a handful of times and it freaks me out
