Lack of info on Laying Short Odds favs from P Webb

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bastuncriochnatha
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:57 pm

Hi,

Always on the lookout for anything that might consist of a bit of an edge I was delighted to come across Caan Berry's vid on Laying Short Odds favs.
The logic was that when a fairly Short horse came up priced early at, say, 1.6 then it would be a good move to lay it at 1.4 or so on the basis that if your lay was taken and the horse came in further there was then a limitation on your loss being that it could not, of course, be backed beyond 1.01. On the other hand there was potential for a bounce (people not being willing to back the horse in to a ridiculous figure).
The point made by Caan was that there was potential for a decent drift profit to be made and a limited bet-in loss.
Pity we have not seen something like this from Peter. Or is there something out there that I have missed?

Regards
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Euler
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bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:09 pm
=The point made by Caan was that there was potential for a decent drift profit to be made and a limited bet-in loss.
Pity we have not seen something like this from Peter. Or is there something out there that I have missed?
The reason you haven't seen me recommend this is because I wouldn't do that. It's completely flawed logic and it doesn't work.
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:09 pm
Hi,

Always on the lookout for anything that might consist of a bit of an edge I was delighted to come across Caan Berry's vid on Laying Short Odds favs.
The logic was that when a fairly Short horse came up priced early at, say, 1.6 then it would be a good move to lay it at 1.4 or so on the basis that if your lay was taken and the horse came in further there was then a limitation on your loss being that it could not, of course, be backed beyond 1.01. On the other hand there was potential for a bounce (people not being willing to back the horse in to a ridiculous figure).
The point made by Caan was that there was potential for a decent drift profit to be made and a limited bet-in loss.
Pity we have not seen something like this from Peter. Or is there something out there that I have missed?

Regards
Hope you didn't have to purchase a video pack for that gem
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
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bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:09 pm
Hi,

Always on the lookout for anything that might consist of a bit of an edge I was delighted to come across Caan Berry's vid on Laying Short Odds favs.
The logic was that when a fairly Short horse came up priced early at, say, 1.6 then it would be a good move to lay it at 1.4 or so on the basis that if your lay was taken and the horse came in further there was then a limitation on your loss being that it could not, of course, be backed beyond 1.01. On the other hand there was potential for a bounce (people not being willing to back the horse in to a ridiculous figure).
The point made by Caan was that there was potential for a decent drift profit to be made and a limited bet-in loss.
Pity we have not seen something like this from Peter. Or is there something out there that I have missed?

Regards
Mind you, in that example,if the momentum was moving the price from 1.60 towards 1.40, a back2lay trade could be primed and executed.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:50 pm
Mind you, in that example,if the momentum was moving the price from 1.60 towards 1.40, a back2lay trade could be primed and executed.
Key word there is IF and even then why 1.40? Why not 1.50 or 1.30? How do you decide what's a good price to place a lay order at? And what if the price kept coming in past 1.40? If you don't have solid reasoning for placing your initial order in the market how do you decide on an exit point if the trade goes against you?

You have to look at the market as a whole and take into account all the variables but just looking at a race and saying 'Well the fav is priced at X, IF it gets to Y that COULD make a nice trade'. If you go into the market with that mindset then you're more likely to trade what you hope will happen and not what you see.
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Naffman
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Caan must've thought of that idea by the poolside 8-)
Atho55
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Re "Trading" at low odds you might look at how often the opportunity actually arises. From roughly Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 these are the approximate numbers. 0 = Lost, 1 = Won for the race result. BSP is floored to group the increments.
Lay @ Lo Odds Opps.png

The highlighted group has a total of 1026 when spread over a trading year is not many.

However, if you look at the same figures and substitute a value returned on placing a bet @ BSP by Liability for £100 and letting it run to the race expiry then it throws up some opportunities if historical data from the past is repeated.
Lay @ Lo Odds By Liability £100.png
If you are a BA subscriber then using Automation you can use the Projected SP > < within the Conditions to place your bet at your desired odds range before the off to potentially get matched easier AND covering the days races at the same time.

Having tested this for 3 days in BA (Prac Mode) being Sun,Mon,Tue this week the expiry results look promising.
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Euler
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I think the original questions was around pre-off, which doesn't make any sense. But in-play may be somewhat different. But I would split it by flat and jumps and by distance as well.

A shortie over 5f on the flat that gets a good start will hold onto it. But over jumps and over a long distance I'd imagine the variability will be much higher. You generally discount 10 ticks for jumping that last fence.
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Derek27
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bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:09 pm
...it would be a good move to lay it at 1.4 or so on the basis that if your lay was taken and the horse came in further there was then a limitation on your loss being that it could not, of course, be backed beyond 1.01.
I think I had that idea in my early days of trading after seeing a few long odds-on favourites drift to odds against, but it didn't work. Laying a horse at 1.4 and having to close after a relentless steam is quite a significant loss and may not compensate for the occasional drifters.
bastuncriochnatha
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:57 pm

I now understand from the replies, and I thank you all, that my thinking (and presumeably Berry's) was somewhat simplistic. My apologies to Euler, in particular.
I also gather from a few comments that Berry is not highly thought of, and no, I have not purchased a video pack, nor do I intend to.
I struggle on looking at the free information available from Pete Webb and Caan Berry.
I would appreciate an expansion on the meaning of the rather snide remark from NAFFMAN that Berry may have conceived of this strategy from poolside! My impression was that he was a hard working trader, as I presume all of my respondents are.

Regards,

bastuncriochnatha
spreadbetting
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bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:21 pm

I would appreciate an expansion on the meaning of the rather snide remark from NAFFMAN that Berry may have conceived of this strategy from poolside! My impression was that he was a hard working trader, as I presume all of my respondents are.

Why do you need an expansion of the throwaway remark when you've already made your opinion of it's meaning? Maybe Naffman should ask for an expansion of your meaning of "rather snide" so he can ensure you're both on the same page when answering.
sa7med
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bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:21 pm

I struggle on looking at the free information available from Pete Webb and Caan Berry.
bastuncriochnatha
There's no such thing as a free lunch. While Peter and Caan may try to help out, you probably wont find any gooses with golden eggs there. Rather they should help you develop/come up with your own ideas, and that's a long journey and success completely dependant on you. Don't believe anyone who claims to share an edge. It takes some real work and some real skill to find an edge and not many people would just hand it to you on a silver platter. Even if they did, that edge would soon be blunted by others adopting it (since they are now public information).
bastuncriochnatha
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:57 pm

Thank you for troubling to advise me. I would be highly surprised to find anything that even hinted at an edge anywhere online. I was just questioning the apparent logic of Caan's notion of laying a very short odds fav on what to me seemed, at least, the logical notion that a very short odds horse can only come in so much whereas, in theory, it could drift dramatically.
Regards :)
bastuncriochnatha
Posts: 35
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:57 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:28 pm
bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:21 pm

I would appreciate an expansion on the meaning of the rather snide remark from NAFFMAN that Berry may have conceived of this strategy from poolside! My impression was that he was a hard working trader, as I presume all of my respondents are.

Hi Spreadbetting,
I was merely trying to understand why there was a reference to "poolside". Hardly the best environment for trading. I did assume that it was intended to be disparaging(hence,snide) but did not know why?
Regards
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ruthlessimon
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bastuncriochnatha wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:00 pm
I would be highly surprised to find anything that even hinted at an edge anywhere online
Regards :)
Euler wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:31 am
If you are betting on a horse at very short odds then you tend to do that late on when you know everything is ok.
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