Am I the WORST TRADER EVER?

Relax and chat about anything not covered elsewhere.
Post Reply
JPK65
Posts: 41
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:09 pm

I have been backing horses of and on for over 30 years and my understanding of mathematics is quite good. I thought I could pick up this pre-off trading on Betfair markets with a bit of time. I am been proved wrong. I have been trading now for about 3-4 months and I swear am getting worse with each new trading session. I am now losing money on about 75% of the races that I trade in. Am I the worst trader of all time? I have tried following the weight of money and trading within the established trading range, looking for bounces at the top and bottom. Neither of these strategies are working for me in the long run, since trends seem to reverse in a flash in the final 5 minutes and when the price strays outside the established trading ranges I am incurring heavy losses. I have even tried just following trends in the last 5 minutes. I don’t seem to be quick enough to get matched when the trend is continued, but I always get matched when the trend is reversed, again incurring heavy losses. Can someone please give me a few pointers of where I can go online to learn to read Betfair markets better? I live in Ireland and at this time I cannot afford to travel to Hampshire to attend the Bet Angel Academy. I hate to be beaten in a project and I want to continue on my learning curve, but the way things are going at the minute, sooner or later I will have to admit defeat and give up. I do not expect to become an expert trader overnight, but I really need to get some sort of encouragement from seeing any improvement in my results. Any help that Bet Angel users can give me would be greatly appreciated.
User avatar
MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

My suggestion would be to get on you tube and have a look at the videos that Peter Webb puts up.
There is a wealth of information in them. I myself have been trading for almost 3 years.
When i started i was crap. It took probably a year or so before i got really confidant with it.
Now i trade horses, tennis, football, greyhounds, darts, American football,
in fact anything that takes my fancy and i am pretty successful at all of them.
Keep plugging away. Change what is going wrong and focus on what is going right.
You will get there if you persevere... :D
User avatar
Yasmingrace
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:43 pm

Hi JPK65, I to have been betting for a long time and was used to using fractions in my odds. However, after a while I got used to the decimal odds and feel as comfortable with them as with fractions. As to whether you are the worst trader ever is a moot point. When I started trading (about 12 months ago) I had good days and bad days. i made silly errors like going in play with a trade, then looking at it and thinking what do I do now. Before you know it your money is gone. I've had highs and I've sat cursing in the kitchen vowing never to trade again. I think those little breaks can be helpful. I also think the comment by Memphisflasn is good advice. I have watched the videos on Youtube over and over. There is always something to learn on them. I would recommend using this forum as I have always had helpful responses from all the respondents no matter if my question was simple or complex.
Earlier this week I watched one of the videos on Global Settings. I decided to spend the afternoon trading with the Global settings set to Offset Bet with Greening. I set the ticks at 2 and I set the Fill or Kill to 30 seconds. I then scalped the racing on Tuesday with positive results and all greens. I will not be able to retire on my profit for that day but it does give you a confidence boost. If you enter at the wrong price you have the Fill or Kill to save you. I tried the same tactic on Wednesday but the results were not as good but the positive from that was that no two days are the same. It does not mean that setting I used is no good it is that the markets act differently. All I can advise is that you keep watching the videos on Youtube or search the User Manual on Bet Angel. There is always visual and written instructions on all subjects. You can also use practice mode on Bet Angel. It has been a year for me and I still have so much to learn but when I reflect on the last year I can see that I've learnt things also. I'm 58 and am still learning, keep at it and do not put pressure on yourself.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

The problem JPK65 is that it looks so easy. Everyone says it takes on average a year at it fulltime and the voice in your head says surely it's not that hard. The further I get into my first year the more I realise the pros are right. Like you I started promisingly and after 3 months had a dip and the attendant crisis of confidence. I think I'd stopped being as intently focused as I was at the start, or maybe I almost learned too much and didn't have enough on autopilot to put it all into practice.

Also remember that it takes a year because every season is different, when I first started, to be frank, it all looked pretty similar, some noisier than others but basically the same ..ish. Now I'm starting to see how subtle the changes are especially between courses on the same day, the devil is in the detail. Where I'm at, I often don't appreciate how the day has been until the day is over. But each day is another page in the note book and I'm starting to see some of the tell tale signs a bit earlier.

Just try and keep it light and enjoyable, expect to pay for the first year's tuition and keep your stakes small.

It certainly sounds like you know enough ways to skin a cat, what takes time is figuring out what tactic works best for a given market. I'm not being deliberately secretive about how to do that, because I don't confidently know how to make those decisions meyself yet. I approach it the way I approached poker, you sit down and see how people are behaving, if they're all over the shop i'll sit on my hands and might even fold aces, if things appear to be sensible and readable...i'll open up a bit more. You can't play one style at every table. The biggest similarity is patience, I can happily sit and fold for 2hrs in a multitable tourney, but trading I felt I had to get involved in every race/hand. I still have that issue to some extent but learning there's a lot to be gained from saying 'I haven't a clue what's going on here...i'll sit this one out'.
JPK65 wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:37 pm
I don’t seem to be quick enough to get matched when the trend is continued
Been there, if the trend is strong and you really want to get on, take best price instead of making an offer. Trying to get in with offers just makes you chase it and as you've found, you only get on when it stops/reverses. You've missed out AND lost, double pain. :evil: Why be greedy about getting that extra tick on the open anyway when you've no idea if the trend will run for 8, 12 or 20 ticks? If you want to back a steamer that's smashing down from 5's, you'll never miss it if you click on 4's. Purists might scoff at that but I'm sure I've seen Euler click above/below the current price to be sure of getting on when he's been waiting for a price to break out (happy to be corrected on that)

{edit: found it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYPqWzSWvQc at about 3:45 ish

JPK65 wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:37 pm
when the price strays outside the established trading ranges I am incurring heavy losses.
when the trend is reversed, again incurring heavy losses.
I'm bothered by how you get in a situation where you have heavy losses, It's bound to affect you. If you've been following horses for 30yrs maybe you get wedded to an expectaion of what should be happening rather than what is happening? Take the pressure off, relax and have a fun week just using £10 stakes, don't try and make money, just try and make it thru the week losing no more than a pound on a market. There's 52 weeks in a year (obv) so why not set 52 mini challenges that are acheivable. You need to feel sucessful and that you're making progress. If you won't give yourself a pat on the back until you're a 'pro' it's going to be a miserable year.

Final point, it's not news, but keep stats. I found that over a couple of months out my losses were worst between 4:30 and 6:30. So I don't do 4:30 till 6, yet. Or I might never do, who knows.

That's a lot of waffle but I feel your pain and hope a long reply will help you feel a bit better. My usual caviat applies, I'm no pro, just passing on what I've been told myself or figured out on the way. We're all different though so good luck with however you decide to tackle this temporary glitch.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Where most people go wrong in trading is reacting to a situation rather than anticipating it: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ36z6VSnMk
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Fantastic reply Shaun, I agree with everything you have said. It appears that virtually nobody becomes successful in less than a year trading pre off horse racing. You have to make tough decisions in a very short period of time, while trying to take in a great deal of information.

Most people find this very difficult to do, possibly someone like an ex fighter pilot might have the necessary skills to become proficient in less than a year. I read somewhere that most new traders bust out within 3 months, of the remaining small percentage, the majority of them will give up after a year. Realising that this is far more difficult than they first thought even though they had expected it not to be easy.

I do a lot of matched betting, so when I have a losing day trading, it is more than made up for by my matched betting profits. This sort of takes the pressure off trying to succeed, I also in a perverse sort of way, quite like the idea that this is so difficult.

If I do ever become a successful pre off trader than that will give me a great sense of achievement, and if I fail I wont be bitterly disappointed. I will be just part of the 95% plus of people who cant to it successfully either.

When I have had a bit more experience I will probably take PWs course myself. I think it was Peter Lee that said you will get the most out of the course once you have had around a years trading experience.

JPK65, if money is a bit tight for you that you can't afford to take PWs course have you considered learning how to match bet, its a much easier way of making money than trading. I don't know the exact figures but I would imagine its completely opposite to trading ie. 95% are successful and 5% fail to make money. You could pay for the cost of the course plus accommodation and travel in probably a couple of months serious match betting maybe even less time if you put the work in.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

You're lacking in confidence right now, which is understandable in your shoes. A lack of confidence is a killer in this game, but there again, over confidence can also be people's downfall

My advice to you, is the same I have given many over the years. I know this has helped some of them, as they have contacted me directly to say so.

Forget pre-off Racing for a second, you need to firstly understand how the markets work, what potentially drives price changes, and then start making smallish greens that will build your bank, knowledge and confidence. The best way to do this, is to start trading events that you know something about, sports that you will enjoy being involved with, and your knowledge alone will tell you what's good value and what isn't. Before long, you start feeling empowered and your understanding of the markets will change. I was always a football anorak, so I left Horses to just trade Football - the best decision I ever made within Betfair. I became successful, and I have never looked back. Needless to say, I then used my new found belief to trade other sports, including Horses. However, I still only touch certain races, invariably the biggest races or meetings

Sooner or later, you will understand what you are good at, what you are bad at, what your weaknesses are, what drives rushes of blood and bad decisions etc - you will be a better trader when you can embrace your own demons

Get yourself a notebook, and write down everything you do. I did this, and I know Peter and others have too. It's great for identifying the cock ups, but also the successes. Before long, a picture will start to emerge and you will feel different about your trading life

Good luck!
Post Reply

Return to “Chill Out Area”