SKY Soccer Saturday Super 6

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 5:29 pm
Tom worthy champion; been pretty much 1st since day 1! .. & finished 786/1M+ players.
Yep, congratulations Tom, whatever your nickname is!
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Moniac
Posts: 37
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 4:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 3:52 pm
Dallas wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 3:07 pm
Edit As of 15:23 I can no longer catch you, just need to ensure I don't lose 5th place now
:twisted:

Such a shame I changed the Newcastle result at the last minute; lost my bottle. That could've cost me 3rd
How many were in your group/league?
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Moniac wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 5:49 pm
How many were in your group/league?
44, although not sure what the average weekly participation was. I think maybe 30(ish) per round
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

did anybody beat my total of 22 points for a single week?
normski_dea
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:09 pm

:D congratulations Tom 🏆
tomhen
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:26 pm

Many thanks to you all for your kind words and sentiments. The “1-0 strategy” certainly helped.

Predicting the outcome of a match is never easy but trying to predict a correct scoreline is even more complex.

In the Premiership in 16/17 the top frequent scorelines were “1-1” and “1-0” with 38 each. In other words one in every five matches in the top flight either finished “1-0” or “1-1”. The next top scorelines were “2-0” (33 times), “2-1” (30 times) and “0-0” (27 times). So there was a 43.7% chance that a scoreline would be one of those 5 scorelines. In the 15/16 season “1-1” was the top scoreline occurring 41 times (11%) followed by “1-0” occurring 37 times (just under 10%).

I coupled that with the fact that in 16/17 49% of matches ended in a Home Win, 29% of games were away wins and 22% of matches finished in Draws. In 15/16 Home Wins occurred 41%, Away Wins 31% and Draws 28%.

So I set about the 17/18 season mainly going for Home Wins of 1-0. Obviously, there were exceptions. For example if I felt the Away team was much stronger I would go for an Away win. If I felt there was a huge gap in strength I would go for a 2-0 or 0-2 scoreline.

With 64 rounds it meant that out of 384 matches I got 143 results correct with 45 correct scores. So 37% of results right with just under 12% strike rate for correct scores.

The flaws in my strategy?

(1) The obvious one - I ignored the possibility of Draws as I felt it was the poor relation in an outcome of a match. But yet “1-1” and “0-0” were 2 of the top 5 scorelines.

(2) The stats above are from the Soccer Stats.com and are based on the Premier Division but as we know the Super 6 competition covers matches from other Leagues – Championship, League 1 and 2 and Champions Leagues. Although a quick scan suggests a similar percentage ratio for Home Wins, Away Wins and Draws with “1-0” and “1-1” the leading two scorelines.in these Leagues.

Just for the record I entered the Talksport Predictor Competition at https://predictor.talksport.com/public/#/home and finished 1494 out of 85134 players. This competition is based solely on every Premiership game. Although their scoring system differs in that you can choose a Banker Selection which can double or triple your score and an Insurance Game where if you are incorrect you score zero. Normally an incorrect choice gives you a minus score.

Strategies, although always prescriptive, should always be reviewed and be open to change and the above is no different. So, for next season I may make changes and certainly will look at Draws which is obviously a huge flaw with me. Like everyone else that enters these competitions the aim is always to win one of the big prizes and hopefully it will happen someday.

Apologies for the overload of stats in the message and I know this is meant to be the Chill Out Area and after reading these stats you probably feel I have changed it into the Kill Out Area!!!! But I would just like to finish by thanking you all for the kind sentiments, I’m looking forward to next season and to wish you all well for next season.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

tomhen wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 10:58 pm
Many thanks to you all for your kind words and sentiments. The “1-0 strategy” certainly helped.

Predicting the outcome of a match is never easy but trying to predict a correct scoreline is even more complex.

In the Premiership in 16/17 the top frequent scorelines were “1-1” and “1-0” with 38 each. In other words one in every five matches in the top flight either finished “1-0” or “1-1”. The next top scorelines were “2-0” (33 times), “2-1” (30 times) and “0-0” (27 times). So there was a 43.7% chance that a scoreline would be one of those 5 scorelines. In the 15/16 season “1-1” was the top scoreline occurring 41 times (11%) followed by “1-0” occurring 37 times (just under 10%).

I coupled that with the fact that in 16/17 49% of matches ended in a Home Win, 29% of games were away wins and 22% of matches finished in Draws. In 15/16 Home Wins occurred 41%, Away Wins 31% and Draws 28%.

So I set about the 17/18 season mainly going for Home Wins of 1-0. Obviously, there were exceptions. For example if I felt the Away team was much stronger I would go for an Away win. If I felt there was a huge gap in strength I would go for a 2-0 or 0-2 scoreline.

With 64 rounds it meant that out of 384 matches I got 143 results correct with 45 correct scores. So 37% of results right with just under 12% strike rate for correct scores.

The flaws in my strategy?

(1) The obvious one - I ignored the possibility of Draws as I felt it was the poor relation in an outcome of a match. But yet “1-1” and “0-0” were 2 of the top 5 scorelines.

(2) The stats above are from the Soccer Stats.com and are based on the Premier Division but as we know the Super 6 competition covers matches from other Leagues – Championship, League 1 and 2 and Champions Leagues. Although a quick scan suggests a similar percentage ratio for Home Wins, Away Wins and Draws with “1-0” and “1-1” the leading two scorelines.in these Leagues.

Just for the record I entered the Talksport Predictor Competition at https://predictor.talksport.com/public/#/home and finished 1494 out of 85134 players. This competition is based solely on every Premiership game. Although their scoring system differs in that you can choose a Banker Selection which can double or triple your score and an Insurance Game where if you are incorrect you score zero. Normally an incorrect choice gives you a minus score.

Strategies, although always prescriptive, should always be reviewed and be open to change and the above is no different. So, for next season I may make changes and certainly will look at Draws which is obviously a huge flaw with me. Like everyone else that enters these competitions the aim is always to win one of the big prizes and hopefully it will happen someday.

Apologies for the overload of stats in the message and I know this is meant to be the Chill Out Area and after reading these stats you probably feel I have changed it into the Kill Out Area!!!! But I would just like to finish by thanking you all for the kind sentiments, I’m looking forward to next season and to wish you all well for next season.
Well done!

Good stats info too. Lines up well for a dutching strategy next year. Bet Angel has a fine and dandy dutching programme that can be tweaked to suit.
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

BTW it looks like Super6 will set up some sort of competition for the World Cup as well.

https://twitter.com/Super6/status/996058427309903873

Who's up for it?
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Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

northbound wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 9:55 am
BTW it looks like Super6 will set up some sort of competition for the World Cup as well.

https://twitter.com/Super6/status/996058427309903873

Who's up for it?
I was rather hoping they would do this, I expect most will be up for it and even some newcomers.
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Well done Tom, it's good to see you post on the forum. It's been fun doing the super six this year, so I'm looking forward to the next competition.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Dallas wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 10:17 am
northbound wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 9:55 am
BTW it looks like Super6 will set up some sort of competition for the World Cup as well.

https://twitter.com/Super6/status/996058427309903873

Who's up for it?
I was rather hoping they would do this, I expect most will be up for it and even some newcomers.
Has anyone got a direct number for super6 phone support? Can't seem to find one.
My account seems to be locked (I've not used it in very long time) and it might take ages to do it via the generic support email.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 2:25 pm
Has anyone got a direct number for super6 phone support? Can't seem to find one.
My account seems to be locked (I've not used it in very long time) and it might take ages to do it via the generic support email.
I'd say contacting SkyBet support would be the best bet. The number looks like it's 0330 024 4777
ljr
Posts: 24
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:00 am

Just a reminder, Super6 starts today guys
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Round 2 starts today, Sweden v South Korea up first
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Dallas
Posts: 22673
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Location: Working From Home

It's a good job it wasn't started yesterday, I expect it would have been a low scoring round for the majority
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