Kelly Multiple Horses

Discussion regarding the spreadsheet functionality of Bet Angel.
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MugPunter
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:58 pm

Hi, is there any mathematician / VBA programmers out there that can help me with this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_cri ... ple_horses
I'd like to turn it into VBA function?
I came up with this but it's only good for single selections.

Code: Select all

Function KELLY_BACK_STAKE(ODDS As Double, PROBABILITY As Double, BALANCE As Double, DIVISOR As Double) As Double
    
           
    Dim b As Double
    Dim p As Double
    Dim q As Double
    Dim bal As Double
    Dim div As Double

    b = ODDS 'DECIMAL ODDS
    p = PROBABILITY / 100 'WINNING PERCENTAGE
    q = 1 - p   'LOSING PERCENTAGE
    bal = BALANCE   'CELL CONTAINING BET WALLET BALANCE
    div = DIVISOR   'PROPORTION OF BALANCE TO USE
    
    KELLY_BACK_STAKE = IIf((b * p - q / b) * (bal / div) > 0, (b * p - q / b) * (bal / div), 0)

End Function
Any assistance appreciated :D
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

Before you look at multiple runners I think you need to check your single formula !

The "b" element should represent the win value.

If your "ODDS" parameter is decimal odds (as per your code comment) then should be

Code: Select all

b = ODDS - 1.0 ' decimal odds
Not checked any other bits - that just leapt out
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MugPunter
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:58 pm

foxwood wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:32 am
Before you look at multiple runners I think you need to check your single formula !

The "b" element should represent the win value.

If your "ODDS" parameter is decimal odds (as per your code comment) then should be

Code: Select all

b = ODDS - 1.0 ' decimal odds
Not checked any other bits - that just leapt out
Thanks for pointing that out! Now i'll have to change my whole staking strategy to Kelly Lay :lol:
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Derek27
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Location: UK

The Kelly criterium is mathematically sound when you know for certain the probability of an outcome, such as coin-flips or dice rolls. When applying it to sporting events, the principle is still applicable but it's only as good as your judgement and level of confidence in the probabilities you derive at.

Much more sensible than the Martingale though. ;)
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:03 am
The Kelly criterium is mathematically sound when you know for certain the probability of an outcome, such as coin-flips or dice rolls. When applying it to sporting events, the principle is still applicable but it's only as good as your judgement and level of confidence in the probabilities you derive at.
That post should be the std reply to anyone mentioning Kelly.

Or, as Donald Trump on a visit to Russia might say, it's all about the accuracy of your p. :?
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:33 am
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:03 am
The Kelly criterium is mathematically sound when you know for certain the probability of an outcome, such as coin-flips or dice rolls. When applying it to sporting events, the principle is still applicable but it's only as good as your judgement and level of confidence in the probabilities you derive at.
That post should be the std reply to anyone mentioning Kelly.

Or, as Donald Trump on a visit to Russia might say, it's all about the accuracy of your p. :?
I thought I'd mention that because a transition from Martingale to Kelly is much like a devil worshiper converting to Christianity - you'd need all the help you can get!
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MugPunter
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:58 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:27 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:33 am
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:03 am
The Kelly criterium is mathematically sound when you know for certain the probability of an outcome, such as coin-flips or dice rolls. When applying it to sporting events, the principle is still applicable but it's only as good as your judgement and level of confidence in the probabilities you derive at.
That post should be the std reply to anyone mentioning Kelly.

Or, as Donald Trump on a visit to Russia might say, it's all about the accuracy of your p. :?
I thought I'd mention that because a transition from Martingale to Kelly is much like a devil worshiper converting to Christianity - you'd need all the help you can get!
HA HA HA, you'll be happy to know i've returned to the dark side, Fibonacci staking looks more promising, how else I'm I going to give my money away ! :twisted:
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firlandsfarm
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Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

I have never seen a mathematical proof supporting Fibonacci, I know the claims I just don't know the why!
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MugPunter
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:58 pm

firlandsfarm wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:13 am
I have never seen a mathematical proof supporting Fibonacci, I know the claims I just don't know the why!
Hi, the proof supporting Fibonacci is all around us in nature, however, as a staking strategy you'll be doomed, as with Martingale. Fibonacci was only suggested to stir a few trolls in this forum. Any staking strategy is only as good as your ability to...
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

MugPunter wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:49 am
Hi, the proof supporting Fibonacci is all around us in nature, however, as a staking strategy you'll be doomed, as with Martingale. Fibonacci was only suggested to stir a few trolls in this forum. Any staking strategy is only as good as your ability to...
Thanks MP, I guess I was trying to make the Troll Bait more tempting. :) I have never seen what the number of petals on a flower has to do with a horse winning a race! I appreciate the F sequence is all around us in nature but where is the mathematical proof that it works as a staking plan and more so why it should work. It's simply a form of loss recovery system by increasing the stake after each loss ... I could do that by having a bag of numbers and picking one at random as my next stake after a loss then if that bet loses I could make up another bag of numbers where each number is larger than the one picked for my previous stake and so on until I recovered my losses or went bankrupt! :)

I'm coming from the same camp as you. It's comments (taken from a 'let us help you with your betting' website) such as ...

"The Fibonacci staking plan is the most well known and uses a sequence devised by a 13th century mathematician. ... The idea is to use stakes following the sequence irrespective of strike rate or odds. You might try applying the method to past results to see if this method suits your usual betting strategy."

The first sentence gives the naive reader the impression the sequence was designed for the purpose of betting and has stood the test of time for 8 centuries and the second sentence is a clear invitation to use the sequence (albeit on past results but we all know how impatient new punters can be!).
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