Taking a price or asking for a price

[Iron]

Under what circumstances would you not offer?

Based on data I got from Betdaq I tend to offer around 80% of the time or so if I remember correctly.

[ruthlessimon]

How do you distinguish between the two?

Great question. Which brings me onto two key points, which underpin all my trading:

1. Price risk
2. Information risk

Price risk is the most simple aspect - & everyone is aware of the following. There are 3 main types of swing entry:

1. Pullback (momentum) (stop: turning point)
2. Breakout (momentum) (stop: HVN or entry)
3. Reversal (mean-reversion) (stop: all-time high/low)

Now, here comes the hard bit.

We need to marry up those three strategies to the correct context, the more accurately we can do this, the more profitable we'll be. This is information risk. If we take your example, we need to be trading with the syndicates (momentum) & we need to be fading the lemmings (mean-reversion). Both participants behave differently, have different characteristics, & affect the market differently - although it requires a lot of trial & error to find these snippets of context. In fact, I still make adjustments, & after today I'll review my trades & see if I can refine this further.

[Euler]

Under what circumstances would you not offer?

Based on data I got from Betdaq I tend to offer around 80% of the time or so if I remember correctly.

When I have a really good idea of direction, even then I'm still likely to offer.