We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

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mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

In trading you have Investment banks, brokers and retail traders ( retail traders that is jo public the DUMB MONEY ! )

Why do I get the feeling this is similar trading via the sports exchanges.

My attitude has changed since 2007 things seems to be getting very difficult in trying to get an edge. "007 was exciting I do not think it is now!

Who is the dumb money?

How many opportunities are out there for the dumb money to get this edge and on what sports book?

Are their any edges left to Jo Public?

Sorry if I sound very negative but I am retired at the age of 50 and have devoted considerable time into slicing and dicing data.

There just seems to be no slip ups in the markets and you have to fight fro every £1!!!!!

Is this an economy of effort?

Who are controlling these sports markets like the Investment banks?

I think we see this scenario in Forex trading, retail traders getting nuked very day!!!!!

Thanks.

:(
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
There just seems to be no slip ups in the markets and you have to fight fro every £1!!!!!
Just look at the 'Betfair chart of the day' thread. Almost every market is full of slip-ups - the opportunities are always there.

Look at it this way, when I lose money trading it's usually a result of being on the wrong end of a market move. I had the opportunity to get on the right end of it, and obviously somebody, perhaps a trader who took my bet, will have been on the right end and made money out of me. Losing money on the exchange is proof that it's possible to win, because somebody must have won that money!
bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
In trading you have Investment banks, brokers and retail traders ( retail traders that is jo public the DUMB MONEY ! )

Why do I get the feeling this is similar trading via the sports exchanges.

My attitude has changed since 2007 things seems to be getting very difficult in trying to get an edge. "007 was exciting I do not think it is now!

Who is the dumb money?

How many opportunities are out there for the dumb money to get this edge and on what sports book?

Are their any edges left to Jo Public?

Sorry if I sound very negative but I am retired at the age of 50 and have devoted considerable time into slicing and dicing data.

There just seems to be no slip ups in the markets and you have to fight fro every £1!!!!!

Is this an economy of effort?

Who are controlling these sports markets like the Investment banks?

I think we see this scenario in Forex trading, retail traders getting nuked very day!!!!!

Thanks.

:(
Have to disagree here , i'm more from the punting background than trading but through alternative interpretation of data have found there are areas to exploit. Broader picture ,two areas that come to mind are a) the public's fixation on "last race" data and b) how punters define exposed / unexposed horses - normally through age but more significant if done by career runs.
Other areas include the "layoff" concept which is misunderstood in the UK and Europe , but well defined in the US - applying the principles here opens up the data to new found patterns. Trainer moves , equipment , jockey upgrades , geographical location bias (look at the power Newmarket trainers exhibit over the rest of the UK) are a few others.
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
LTCM
as in the 3.6 billion bailout LTCM? :D
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

bobs71 wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:52 pm
Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
LTCM
as in the 3.6 billion bailout LTCM? :D
Oui. C'est ca. :D
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Hi Anna,

Thanks for your candid comments, we are all entitled to our opinion and that is how it should be.

I put this scenario to you.

You are a layer and do your home work on a race and home in on a horse you want to lay.

You do all you stats and analysis etc. How do you factor in the horse's handicap mark not being it;s true value? So you might be laying a horse that is better than you think because it has should we say been economically ridden in previous races!!!!

In my opinion that makes you the dumb money correct? You do not have an edge you are on the wrong side of the fence!

I think this is what is wrong with the horse racing game in the UK small owners and trainers are struggling to pay so gambling tops up the coffers!

If we take Forex trading and brokers I bet most of the investment banks have their fingers in some sort of financial commitment in the broker firms, they cannot lose, the retailer shorts and the bank longs or vica versa!!!!!!

Thanks
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Winners are smart money, losers are 'dumb' money?
If you're a corporation or you sit in the back bedroom on a bean bag it makes little difference.
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

The title of this thread, "We are the dumb money" doesn't make it clear who "we" refers to ?

There are people on this forum who are extremely successful and there's also people who are extremely unsuccessful - we're not all doing the same thing.

Betting exchanges are a free-for-all, in that anyone can do anything they want on the exchange - nobody controls it.
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

mhorro wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:11 pm
Hi Anna,

Thanks for your candid comments, we are all entitled to our opinion and that is how it should be.

I put this scenario to you.

You are a layer and do your home work on a race and home in on a horse you want to lay.

You do all you stats and analysis etc. How do you factor in the horse's handicap mark not being it;s true value? So you might be laying a horse that is better than you think because it has should we say been economically ridden in previous races!!!!

In my opinion that makes you the dumb money correct? You do not have an edge you are on the wrong side of the fence!

I think this is what is wrong with the horse racing game in the UK small owners and trainers are struggling to pay so gambling tops up the coffers!

If we take Forex trading and brokers I bet most of the investment banks have their fingers in some sort of financial commitment in the broker firms, they cannot lose, the retailer shorts and the bank longs or vica versa!!!!!!

Thanks
I admit, I'm not always on the 'right side of the fence'. But, guess what? I don't have to be! I just have to be often enough to make a profit.

You asked me what I do if I come across a horse that is better than its handicap mark indicates?

I don't even consider a horse's handicap mark. IMHO, it's worthless as an indicator of a horse's winning potential.

Next?

Anna
User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

mhorro wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:11 pm
Hi Anna,

Thanks for your candid comments, we are all entitled to our opinion and that is how it should be.

I put this scenario to you.

You are a layer and do your home work on a race and home in on a horse you want to lay.

You do all you stats and analysis etc. How do you factor in the horse's handicap mark not being it;s true value? So you might be laying a horse that is better than you think because it has should we say been economically ridden in previous races!!!!

In my opinion that makes you the dumb money correct? You do not have an edge you are on the wrong side of the fence!

I think this is what is wrong with the horse racing game in the UK small owners and trainers are struggling to pay so gambling tops up the coffers!

If we take Forex trading and brokers I bet most of the investment banks have their fingers in some sort of financial commitment in the broker firms, they cannot lose, the retailer shorts and the bank longs or vica versa!!!!!!

Thanks
You should never back a horse you fancy without using the other runners in a race to compare to know what price it should be.

I fancy atleast 4 or 5 horses every single day of the week, but I dont back them because most of the time they are underlays. Majority of my winning thoughts are 4/1 shots who should be 6/1 = a bet your going to lose long term.

IMO a handicap mark is purely subjective. Think like a trainer and you will find more winners and certainly more horses "well handicapped"

75% of all runs on all low-grade racing are not as honest as you think. Not suggesting most horses are being cheated but everyone's out to play the system, you have to remember too. Trainers job is to look after and cater for the welfare of horse. Punters need to know that the majority of horses can only stay fit for approx 6 weeks and can take as much as 12 weeks to get a horse fit. Knowing and working on that will give you an edge.

There are exceptions, the best horses are honest triers and will win all year round just because they have the will to win. You can get good horses without ability, again they are consistant because they want it- find one of these in its peak fitness you have a massive edge.

Another note. People are so hung up on the distance of a horse, what I have learned is how much a horse can change over the years. Time and time again you will find horses who have struggled over say 7f in his younger days... then spends his career running 8f,9,f and 10f. Eventually, that horse will actually have a preference to winning over 8f. The come out of form... all of sudden run over 7f and win a string at that distance. Horses change just like us and it can happen quickly.
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
Who is the dumb money?
In any scenario If you don't know who is the dumb money then it's probably you :roll:
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

foxwood wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:10 pm
mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
Who is the dumb money?
In any scenario If you don't know who is the dumb money then it's probably you :roll:
Many a true word spoken in jest. :D
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

The answer to the question really lies in your profit/loss account. The more you lose the more likely your money is dumb, or on the dumb side. The more you win the more likely it is to be smart money.
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BlackHat Betting
Posts: 67
Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:51 pm
Contact:

Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
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