We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

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Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Disagree.

Sir Alex Ferguson was never a great player, but he was capable of helping players become world class.

Our Sunday league player doesn't need some secret technique that only a world class player can give him. He needs to do the hard work involved in being the best he can be.

Sir Alex talks fondly about how certain players like Ronaldo and Beckham were always the last to finish training. Similarly, in trading, I suspect that many people try to copy what they think great traders do, rather than doing the many hours of research and experimentation that allowed the trader to get knowledge of how the markets operate and hone their technique.

Jeff
ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:14 pm
He's only Sunday league. Eventually, if the newbie wants to continue his development - he needs to find Harry Kane
spreadbetting
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Ferru123 wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:06 pm
It is in the pockets of the 95%, destined for the pockets of yourselves and the other Premium Charge payers.

Many are called, few are chosen. That's not a popular sentiment in these 'you can be anything you want to be' days, but it is no less true for it.

It is important to be realistic, rather than being drawn in my the bright lights of the Betfair casino, and thinking 'If he can do it, so can I'. If it were that easy, everyone would be doing it, which would soon mean no-one would be doing it (ironically).

It's important to be realistic about the scale of the challenge and the odds of success - to do so will save time and money.

Jeff
Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:52 pm

Your central point merely shows where the dumb money is, it's quite ironic really.
You'd need to remember the majority of that 95% aren't doing it to win though, Jeff. To them it's nothing more than another hobby.

The majority of traders won't ever win because they simply don't need to, it's hardly fun spending an afternoon watching numbers bouncing on a screen to make a few quid a race. It's no surprise they'll self sabotage to make things a bit more exciting or lapse in concentration. When I was working full time I had a decent enough paying job and only really made money from my bots which I found interesting, plus it was back in the day when things were easier to bot the markets. Manual trading was a challenge but I only really started to earn from that when my mortgage/bills depended on me cracking it to some degree and I started to do it seriously. I think people underestimate the level of concentration and determination you need to make it pay long term.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Valid points.

I'm reminded of this famous trading quote:

'Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.' - Ed Seykota

Jeff
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:39 pm
...it's hardly fun spending an afternoon watching numbers bouncing on a screen to make a few quid a race.
I find it fun!
spreadbetting
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A very apt quote , Jeff, shouldn't be underestimated that adrenaline rush trading can give people, win or lose. I remember back in the day when plenty of traders/trainers used to stick up videos of themselves trading. They'd be allsorts of swearing or cheering going on just because a trade was going one way or another, think I realised very early I'd need to take that side of trading out of the equation as there was no way I could survive going on a 4 hour roller coaster ride each day. MIght be fun for a Saturday afternoon but day in day out there's no way you could last the course.
spreadbetting
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:17 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:39 pm
...it's hardly fun spending an afternoon watching numbers bouncing on a screen to make a few quid a race.
I find it fun!
We all do this for different reasons, if it works for you that's fine. Doing it day in day out the novelty wears off after a while and find it harder to maintain the level of concentration I need ,was one of the reasons I'm happier to leave it to bots and dip in and out manually every so often.

This time of the year is the time I hate when the night racing starts, it's like Euler's mentioned before that it's like a fruit machine stuck on payout so hard to ignore picking it up even though you'd rather be doing something more interesting and maybe don't need the extra cash.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

I agree.

I remember back in my betting days that I'd be fairly indifferent about what happened, whether I lost £300 or had a 33/1 oblige, as I wasn't emotionally invested in what I was doing. It was a numbers game - I trusted in my long-term edge, and everything else was just twists and forks in the road.

I think the reason I haven't generally done that with trading is that I have been seduced by the interesting possibilities, rather than just sticking to the straight and narrow (which is partly why I am currently pursuing automation-based trading).

Jeff
spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:22 pm
A very apt quote , Jeff, shouldn't be underestimated that adrenaline rush trading can give people, win or lose. I remember back in the day when plenty of traders/trainers used to stick up videos of themselves trading. They'd be allsorts of swearing or cheering going on just because a trade was going one way or another, think I realised very early I'd need to take that side of trading out of the equation as there was no way I could survive going on a 4 hour roller coaster ride each day. MIght be fun for a Saturday afternoon but day in day out there's no way you could last the course.
spreadbetting
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Ferru123 wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:33 pm
I agree.

I remember back in my betting days that I'd be fairly indifferent about what happened, whether I lost £300 or had a 33/1 oblige, as I wasn't emotionally invested in what I was doing. It was a numbers game - I trusted in my long-term edge, and everything else was just twists and forks in the road.
I'd imagine you're very much the exception to the rule though , Jeff, in gambling and real life :)
Iron
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I'm not sure what you mean, but I'll take it as a compliment! :D

I am unconventional in some respects (although some people would use less flattering words to describe me!). :lol: Hopefully that is a quality that I will be able to use to positive effect in the markets and elsewhere.

Jeff
spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:36 pm
I'd imagine you're very much the exception to the rule though , Jeff, in gambling and real life :)
spreadbetting
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Yes, it wasn't meant as a slur more saying you're a one off , Jeff :) .
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Derek27
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Trading is fun when things are going well, but I've always believed that whether you're trading or betting, it helps to be completely emotionally detached from the money side of it and treat it like a numbers game.
Iron
Posts: 6793
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I didn't think it was and I actually chuckled in real life when I read your comment. :)

Jeff
spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 5:47 pm
Yes, it wasn't meant as a slur more saying you're a one off , Jeff :) .
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ruthlessimon
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Ferru123 wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:54 pm
Disagree.

Our Sunday league player doesn't need some secret technique that only a world class player can give him. He needs to do the hard work involved in being the best he can be.
You think that player intuitively will understand all aspects of the game just by "working hard"? How does he know what "working hard" means - if he's never seen it?

Also, another key aspect is time. Yes perhaps after 10yrs playing the game, the Sunday league player does have an outstanding knowledge of the game - but by now he's 30yrs old, he's passed it.

In a trading context, hard work to me, might be considered procrastination to Peter. It's relative
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Jamie Vardy didn't have some international superstar on hand to show him a bunch of secret techniques that only superstars know about, and nor, I imagine, did most top players.

If the desire is there, they will find out what they need to do to get to peak footballing fitness, what techniques to practice, etc.

They will also improve their knowledge of the game by listening to experts, and thinking critically about what they say (e.g. 'Hansen says that was shocking defending. Rather than just assume he knows his stuff, I'll try to work out where he was coming from and whether his logic stacks up).

He might also watch lots of football from around the world too, to see what works and doesn't work in practice, and to get ideas and inspiration.

In short, he won't try to copy anyone, but will learn from a wide variety of sources, and practice applying the knowledge until it's automatic. If he has the talent to be world class, the end result may be very different to Kane, but potentially just as effective.

The approach you advocate was tried out in 2008 by Arton Baleci. Who? Exactly... :) http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/7735859.stm

Jeff
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