We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

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boardrep
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What an excellent thread ...the first Ive read in a while....Anna and Le Tiss I must say I enjoy your humour and candid replies
Peter your comments are always thought provoking
thank you all
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Derek27
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:25 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:18 pm
The fact that football pundits disagree about football doesn't mean one of them lacks understanding.
John Terry doesn't agree!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQq4_JjHQXA
He doesn't disagree either!

He's simply dismissing the views of somebody whose advice he's not interested in.
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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:42 pm
He's simply dismissing the views of somebody whose advice he's not interested in.
.. because "he didn't play at a good level". So from Terry's POV Savage didn't have a good understanding of the game he played
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Derek27
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:49 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:42 pm
He's simply dismissing the views of somebody whose advice he's not interested in.
.. because "he didn't play at a good level". So from Terry's POV Savage didn't have a good understanding of the game he played
The point I was making is that two people who disagree can both be experts - I didn't say they will be experts.
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ruthlessimon
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I'll finish with this. I remember asking my grandad (who was a bank manager) about getting rich - when I was like 10 or something. & he said something along these lines this:

"If I only bought stocks that were up 10%, & sold them when they were down 10%, I'd have been a rich man."

That's gotta be up there as some of the worst advice ever. No surprise he never got rich trading stocks. Also this is an interesting dilemma. Had I questioned him at 10yrs old. What would I have been labeled as? (remembering the fact that he was a bank manager)
Iron
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It is in the pockets of the 95%, destined for the pockets of yourselves and the other Premium Charge payers.

Many are called, few are chosen. That's not a popular sentiment in these 'you can be anything you want to be' days, but it is no less true for it.

It is important to be realistic, rather than being drawn in my the bright lights of the Betfair casino, and thinking 'If he can do it, so can I'. If it were that easy, everyone would be doing it, which would soon mean no-one would be doing it (ironically).

It's important to be realistic about the scale of the challenge and the odds of success - to do so will save time and money.

Jeff
Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:52 pm

Your central point merely shows where the dumb money is, it's quite ironic really.
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Euler
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If you look for problems you can find them everywhere, it takes a little more effort to find the positive in things, but that is where the opportunity lay. Its the same in any market or life in general and this thread just re-enforces that view.

I enjoy playing Tennis but I know I'm going to be no Roger Federer, so should I put people off from playing Tennis? Perhaps I should protest outside the local sports direct, after all I bet you not a single person who walks through that store is going to play Tennis at a professional level so why bother buying the equipment? Why bother going to work if you are not going to run the company, climb the mountain if you can't reach the top, ask that girl out because there is a better-looking bloke than you, try harder because there will always be somebody better than you?

All the above is one way you can be different from others. You don't have to believe it, you just need to go out there and do it and I can assure you most never do.

Trading is tough, but life is tougher. Knowing that that is not the problem, it's how you deal with it.
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bennyboy351
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Many years ago, I bought a Sho-Bud Pedal Steel Guitar. If you're not a Country and Western fan, chances are you've never seen one. Its that thing that looks like a knitting machine and gives C&W that lovely, whiney Hawaian sound.

One of the finest Pedal Steel Guitar players is a man named Lloyd Green - he plays/played a Sho-Bud and has backed up so many artists, I doubt he can remember them all.

My point? We both had similar guitars but HE had the talent, committment and breaks. Without those, I reckon all you'll ever do is moan about the 'lucky' ones who seem to have them.

But then again, if you REALLY want something, I truly believe that with enough hard work and committment you can achieve your goals. Just stop believing its easy........
Iron
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Euler wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:20 pm
All the above is one way you can be different from others. You don't have to believe it, you just need to go out there and do it and I can assure you most never do.

Trading is tough, but life is tougher. Knowing that that is not the problem, it's how you deal with it.
I actually agree.

All I was getting at is that people need to be honest about how challenging the path ahead is.

I think people often think that trading is just about finding some secret formula and applying it. I would say that the trading method is actually the easy bit - there are loads of edges out there. The harder battle is between the ears - fighting hardwired impulses, which is difficult, especially long term.

An analogy would be losing weight. I would say few overweight people wouldn't want to be slim. The 'how' of losing weight isn't complicated. Yet probably a similar proportion of people fail at dieting as fail at Betfair (I've failed at both! :lol:).

However, if someone knows how difficult it will be, and are still determined to do whatever it takes (though not desperate), then maybe they stand a chance.

If they are one of the people Le Tiss gets wound up about because they ask how to programme a £1000 a day spreadsheet, then perhaps their odds of success aren't so good! :lol:

Jeff
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harsh
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Euler wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:20 pm
If you look for problems you can find them everywhere, it takes a little more effort to find the positive in things, but that is where the opportunity lay. Its the same in any market or life in general and this thread just re-enforces that view.

I enjoy playing Tennis but I know I'm going to be no Roger Federer, so should I put people off from playing Tennis? Perhaps I should protest outside the local sports direct, after all I bet you not a single person who walks through that store is going to play Tennis at a professional level so why bother buying the equipment? Why bother going to work if you are not going to run the company, climb the mountain if you can't reach the top, ask that girl out because there is a better-looking bloke than you, try harder because there will always be somebody better than you?

All the above is one way you can be different from others. You don't have to believe it, you just need to go out there and do it and I can assure you most never do.

Trading is tough, but life is tougher. Knowing that that is not the problem, it's how you deal with it.
Thankyou for writing this.
Iron
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Disagree.

Sir Alex Ferguson was never a great player, but he was capable of helping players become world class.

Our Sunday league player doesn't need some secret technique that only a world class player can give him. He needs to do the hard work involved in being the best he can be.

Sir Alex talks fondly about how certain players like Ronaldo and Beckham were always the last to finish training. Similarly, in trading, I suspect that many people try to copy what they think great traders do, rather than doing the many hours of research and experimentation that allowed the trader to get knowledge of how the markets operate and hone their technique.

Jeff
ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:14 pm
He's only Sunday league. Eventually, if the newbie wants to continue his development - he needs to find Harry Kane
spreadbetting
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Ferru123 wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:06 pm
It is in the pockets of the 95%, destined for the pockets of yourselves and the other Premium Charge payers.

Many are called, few are chosen. That's not a popular sentiment in these 'you can be anything you want to be' days, but it is no less true for it.

It is important to be realistic, rather than being drawn in my the bright lights of the Betfair casino, and thinking 'If he can do it, so can I'. If it were that easy, everyone would be doing it, which would soon mean no-one would be doing it (ironically).

It's important to be realistic about the scale of the challenge and the odds of success - to do so will save time and money.

Jeff
Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:52 pm

Your central point merely shows where the dumb money is, it's quite ironic really.
You'd need to remember the majority of that 95% aren't doing it to win though, Jeff. To them it's nothing more than another hobby.

The majority of traders won't ever win because they simply don't need to, it's hardly fun spending an afternoon watching numbers bouncing on a screen to make a few quid a race. It's no surprise they'll self sabotage to make things a bit more exciting or lapse in concentration. When I was working full time I had a decent enough paying job and only really made money from my bots which I found interesting, plus it was back in the day when things were easier to bot the markets. Manual trading was a challenge but I only really started to earn from that when my mortgage/bills depended on me cracking it to some degree and I started to do it seriously. I think people underestimate the level of concentration and determination you need to make it pay long term.
Iron
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Valid points.

I'm reminded of this famous trading quote:

'Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.' - Ed Seykota

Jeff
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:39 pm
...it's hardly fun spending an afternoon watching numbers bouncing on a screen to make a few quid a race.
I find it fun!
spreadbetting
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A very apt quote , Jeff, shouldn't be underestimated that adrenaline rush trading can give people, win or lose. I remember back in the day when plenty of traders/trainers used to stick up videos of themselves trading. They'd be allsorts of swearing or cheering going on just because a trade was going one way or another, think I realised very early I'd need to take that side of trading out of the equation as there was no way I could survive going on a 4 hour roller coaster ride each day. MIght be fun for a Saturday afternoon but day in day out there's no way you could last the course.
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