Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 5:51 pmI combine it to price i.e.BetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 5:23 pmBut in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?
the weight of money
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That's right yah.BetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 6:11 pmDoes that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis
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I would imagine that in-running the following could be something to look at:ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 6:20 pmThat's right yah.BetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 6:11 pmDoes that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis
- WOM < 30 and selections matched volume has increased by 10%.
This should give at least a 1 tick move even with the 2 second delay on horses.
There is less chance of spoof money in-play on horses as there is a good chance it could get filled.
Its probably safe to say if a selections matched volume before the start was 40k and in-play it increases to 44k or more that something significant is occurring, even for a short period.
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I found this very interesting. So much so that I put together a pretty simple trigger to monitor the volume/price for the top 4 in-running and scalp them on the last 3 races of the day. Too my surprise, I made more ticks profit today than I have all week. I used 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades. Obviously it needs allot more testing, so I am going to run it across all the races tomorrow.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 7:17 pmHere's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)Lucacrebbe wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 3:45 pmSorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)
1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins
Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway.
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Np - Just thought something like this makes a change from the 'usual'BetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:05 pmThanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway.
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+ 1ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:37 pmNp - Just thought something like this makes a change from the 'usual'BetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:05 pmThanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway.
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Hi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian
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Hi,teambulldog wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 8:10 pmHi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian
I didn't have much luck backing them.
So, what I did was basically the reverse.
Example:
- Top 3 ordered by Last Traded Price
- Volume increase < x Amount
- WOM > 70 (Inner Weighting only)
- Lay by Book%
- Green Up (Reverse Market Price)
The results overall were fairly positive.
More testing needed to see what x Amount works best.
Trying to figure out a way of laying the one that has the lowest volume increase out of the top 3 as this would indicate that the backers don't fancy it.
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Because volume takes a lot of cleaning (& my April data is a bit messy) , I spent today looking at just time & it's another fascinating avenueteambulldog wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 8:10 pmHi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian
This is an identical strategy, deployed over different (but equal) time intervals (2mth sample) - & that last graph is totally crazy!
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Thanks for replying chaps,,,
yes that last chart was funny????
Betscalper was yours inplay ??? do you green up for X£ proffit or tics amount IE 2-4 tic trade etc ???
Good work chaps
Julian
yes that last chart was funny????
Betscalper was yours inplay ??? do you green up for X£ proffit or tics amount IE 2-4 tic trade etc ???
Good work chaps
Julian
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In-Playteambulldog wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 9:32 pmThanks for replying chaps,,,
yes that last chart was funny????
Betscalper was yours inplay ??? do you green up for X£ proffit or tics amount IE 2-4 tic trade etc ???
Good work chaps
Julian
Green Up at reverse market price first, Green Up at current market price when favourite < 2.0.
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Thanks Betscalper,
i will keep tyring as been useing vol% inplay but very up and down results,,, still trying to find a steady outcome...
will like to keep updated as to how you are getting on this week,
Julian
i will keep tyring as been useing vol% inplay but very up and down results,,, still trying to find a steady outcome...
will like to keep updated as to how you are getting on this week,
Julian
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What I did was store Volume% for each selection. Then have a condition to check if the current Volume% for the selection has decreased by 10% or more and the WOM > 70%. If it has then Lay the selection.teambulldog wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 10:40 pmThanks Betscalper,
i will keep tyring as been useing vol% inplay but very up and down results,,, still trying to find a steady outcome...
will like to keep updated as to how you are getting on this week,
Julian
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Certainly; I haven't got a clue why the graph is like that though & a problem of time-based trading is the sheer number of strategies that could be deployed. Literally millions of random combinations (i.e. Entry @ 308, exit 134 etc etc). Something is bound to have an amazing equity curve - simply because millions of strategies are being deployed.
But time is beautifully more simple than volume.
Perhaps BetScalper it might be worth testing the strat with/without & differing WOM conditions & just see how that influences the profitability. Ya never know 10% might be extremely good!
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Betscalper,
Green Up at reverse market price first,
Can you help with this above please as i get the green up if fav under 2.0 etc but cant think how to Green Up at reverse market price first,?..
is this green up after x number of ticks etc or offset etc..
Think my head is gone lol
Thanks
Julian
Green Up at reverse market price first,
Can you help with this above please as i get the green up if fav under 2.0 etc but cant think how to Green Up at reverse market price first,?..
is this green up after x number of ticks etc or offset etc..
Think my head is gone lol
Thanks
Julian