the weight of money

A place to discuss anything.
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 5:51 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 5:23 pm
But in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?
I combine it to price i.e.

Image
Image
Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 6:11 pm
Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
That's right yah.

Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 6:20 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 6:11 pm
Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
That's right yah.

Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis
I would imagine that in-running the following could be something to look at:

- WOM < 30 and selections matched volume has increased by 10%.

This should give at least a 1 tick move even with the 2 second delay on horses.

There is less chance of spoof money in-play on horses as there is a good chance it could get filled.

Its probably safe to say if a selections matched volume before the start was 40k and in-play it increases to 44k or more that something significant is occurring, even for a short period.
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 7:17 pm
Lucacrebbe wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:45 pm
Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)
Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

Image
I found this very interesting. So much so that I put together a pretty simple trigger to monitor the volume/price for the top 4 in-running and scalp them on the last 3 races of the day. Too my surprise, I made more ticks profit today than I have all week. I used 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades. Obviously it needs allot more testing, so I am going to run it across all the races tomorrow.

Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway. :)
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:05 pm
Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway. :)
Np - Just thought something like this makes a change from the 'usual' ;)
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:37 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:05 pm
Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway. :)
Np - Just thought something like this makes a change from the 'usual' ;)
+ 1
teambulldog
Posts: 116
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:09 pm

Hi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

teambulldog wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 8:10 pm
Hi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian
Hi,

I didn't have much luck backing them.

So, what I did was basically the reverse.

Example:

- Top 3 ordered by Last Traded Price
- Volume increase < x Amount
- WOM > 70 (Inner Weighting only)
- Lay by Book%
- Green Up (Reverse Market Price)

The results overall were fairly positive.

More testing needed to see what x Amount works best.

Trying to figure out a way of laying the one that has the lowest volume increase out of the top 3 as this would indicate that the backers don't fancy it.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

teambulldog wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 8:10 pm
Hi Betscalper & Ruthlessimon,
How did you get on with 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades today ?????
This WOM and vol % has my head going round and round trying to get an edge etc...
Please keep posting chaps as great to hear others ideas
Thanks
Julian
Because volume takes a lot of cleaning (& my April data is a bit messy) ;) , I spent today looking at just time & it's another fascinating avenue

This is an identical strategy, deployed over different (but equal) time intervals (2mth sample) - & that last graph is totally crazy!

Image
teambulldog
Posts: 116
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:09 pm

Thanks for replying chaps,,,
yes that last chart was funny????
Betscalper was yours inplay ??? do you green up for X£ proffit or tics amount IE 2-4 tic trade etc ???
Good work chaps
Julian
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

teambulldog wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 9:32 pm
Thanks for replying chaps,,,
yes that last chart was funny????
Betscalper was yours inplay ??? do you green up for X£ proffit or tics amount IE 2-4 tic trade etc ???
Good work chaps
Julian
In-Play

Green Up at reverse market price first, Green Up at current market price when favourite < 2.0.
teambulldog
Posts: 116
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:09 pm

Thanks Betscalper,
i will keep tyring as been useing vol% inplay but very up and down results,,, still trying to find a steady outcome...
will like to keep updated as to how you are getting on this week,
Julian
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

teambulldog wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 10:40 pm
Thanks Betscalper,
i will keep tyring as been useing vol% inplay but very up and down results,,, still trying to find a steady outcome...
will like to keep updated as to how you are getting on this week,
Julian
What I did was store Volume% for each selection. Then have a condition to check if the current Volume% for the selection has decreased by 10% or more and the WOM > 70%. If it has then Lay the selection.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 10:14 pm
yes that last chart was funny????
Certainly; I haven't got a clue why the graph is like that though :) & a problem of time-based trading is the sheer number of strategies that could be deployed. Literally millions of random combinations (i.e. Entry @ 308, exit 134 etc etc). Something is bound to have an amazing equity curve - simply because millions of strategies are being deployed.

But time is beautifully more simple than volume.

Perhaps BetScalper it might be worth testing the strat with/without & differing WOM conditions & just see how that influences the profitability. Ya never know 10% might be extremely good!
teambulldog
Posts: 116
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:09 pm

Betscalper,
Green Up at reverse market price first,
Can you help with this above please as i get the green up if fav under 2.0 etc but cant think how to Green Up at reverse market price first,?..
is this green up after x number of ticks etc or offset etc..
Think my head is gone lol
Thanks
Julian
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”